Monday, April 11, 2011

Exclusive: Bill Gross Is Now Short US Debt, Hikes Cash To $73 Billion, An All Time Record

A month ago, Zero Hedge first reported that Bill Gross had taken the stunning decision to bring his Treasury exposure from 12% to 0%: a move which many interpreted as just business, and not personal: after all Pimco had previously telegraphed its disgust with US paper, and was merely mitigating its exposure. This time, in another Zero Hedge first, we discover that it is no longer business for Bill - it has now become personal (and with an attendant cost of carry). In March, Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt: -3% on a Market Value basis (or $7.1 billion), and a whopping -18% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis. And confirming just what PIMCO thinks of US-related paper is the fact that the world's largest "bond" fund now has cash, at a stunning $73 billion, or 31% of all assets, as its largest asset class on both a relative and absolute basis. We repeat: cash is more than PIMCO's holdings of Treasurys and Mortgage securities ($66 billion) combined. To paraphrase: in March PIMCO was dumping everything related to US rates (see chart below). This is the first net short position that PIMCO has had in Government-related debt since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and going positive in February of 2009 only after it became clear that the Fed would commence monetizing US debt one month later. This is the closest that Gross has come to making a political statement and is now without doubt putting his money where his mouth is. The only event that could possibly derail Gross' thinking is a huge market crash forcing a rush to Treasury safety. Alas, as has been made all too clear recently, US debt is no longer the safe haven it once was. Which begs the question: when will the TRF break out a "gold" asset holdings line item.

Ex-PBOC Official Wakes Up From The Acid Trip: "U.S. Treasury Market Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme"

Ex-PBOC Official Wakes Up From The Acid Trip: "U.S. Treasury Market Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme"


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2011 09:31 -0400

After years of being the primary supplier of funding to the US credit-money shell game, one more ex-PBoC member wakes up from the "great normalization" acid trip, and in a Caixin editorial says what virtually everyone now understands all too well: the Treasury market is one "giant Ponzi scheme." Oh, and it wasn't obvious when China was the biggest holder of debt for years (until the Fed became the biggest monetizer of US Treasuries late in 2010)? Sounds like a rather serious case of buyers remorse is creeping into the buying mindset of America's formerly primary enabler. The $64 trillion question now, as always, is whether China, whose holdings have been flat for a year will follow in Pimco's footsteps and actually commence selling longer-dated paper. If so, and with QE3 now expected to end even if temporarily, the aftermath will not be what Congress wants to see.
From Market Watch:

A former adviser to China's central bank said on Monday that China should have retreated from the U.S. government-bond market and instead allowed the yuan to appreciate more freely, warning that U.S. sovereign debt was akin to a giant Ponzi scheme, according to a newswire report that cited an editorial on Caixin Media Group's website. Yu Yongding, a former member of the People's Bank of China monetary-policy committee and now a member of a state-run policy group, said allowing appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar under a free-floating currency regime would have reduced China's need to acquire U.S. Treasuries. He likened the U.S. Treasury market to a "giant Ponzi scheme," arguing that Federal Reserve buying of Treasuries has artificially kept bond prices high, but that they would eventually fall to levels which reflected fundamentals of the U.S. economy.

Liberal Media Refuses To Cover George Soros New World Order

Right now, there are only two groups that have written about George Soros New World Order event in New Hampshire that is taking place today. NTEB and Fox News. This is very odd when you consider that the giants of world politics and finance will be at these meetings, and Nancy Pelosi is the Keynote speaker. Just a tad odd, wouldn’t you say, that none of the main stream media are covering it in any way? So it would appear that there is a conspiracy among the various outlets to allow Soros’ meetings to take place unreported.

The first gathering in Bretton Woods, N.H., is an economic conference Soros once described as “a grand bargain that rearranges the entire financial order.” In October 2009, Soros committed $50 million to the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET). A week later, the glib lefty investor wrote a column calling for a new Bretton Woods event, to recreate the one that helped design the post-WWII economy. Only he wants this one to knock America down a peg or three.
The announced speakers include a lot of prominent lefties, globalists and economists on the board of the organization he has throwing the event – more than two-thirds of the overall total have ties to Soros. To underscore their connection to history, INET is hosting the conference at the Mount Washington Resort, the very same hotel that held the first gathering.
INET Executive Robert Johnson defended his event in a March 31 interview with Lou Dobbs. Johnson, a former managing director at Soros Fund Management, who is on the Board of Directors for the Soros-funded Economic Policy Institute, avoided saying “Soros” despite Dobbs mentioning Johnson’s boss several times. In his last response, he tried to rationalize the Soros connection, by saying “I have a group of funders including George Soros.” With $50 million, Soros alone makes a pretty big group. Of course, Soros will also be speaking in Bretton Woods about “The Emerging Economic and Political Order.” source – Fox News
TY Mary Jane Moore-Wright

Frontrunning: April 11

Frontrunning: April 11
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2011 07:51 -0400



•Obama Push to Seize Budget Initiative (FT)

•China gives all clear on bond issuance bubble: Government Boosts the Bond Markets (China Daily)

•You mean they can't use 200% debt financing? Nasdaq OMX Needs Shareholders to Embrace Rejected Bid (Bloomberg)

•Complacent Europe Must Realise Spain Will be Next (FT)

•Japan's seismic nerve center (Japan Times)

•Kan’s DPJ Suffers Election Setback One Month After Japan Quake (Bloomberg)

•Edano Says Japan Doesn't Need BOJ to Help Fund Post-Quake Disaster Relief (Bloomberg)

•State Prosecutor Summons Mubarak (FT)

•US Doubts Air Power Can Turn Libyan Tide (FT)

China Lashes Out At US "Hypocrisy", Blasts US Human Rights "Double Standard" In Pursuing "World Hegemony"

In what can only be described as a stunning deterioration in foreign relations between the world's two superpowers, following Friday's release by the US State Department of the annual report on human rights, which expressed sharp criticism of the human rights records of China, North Korea, Cuba and Belarus, among others, China decided it has had enough. Less than 48 hours later, it has lashed back at the US with a report that is making headlines at every government controlled, and otherwise, media in mainland China, which makes a mockery of the US double standard when it comes to human rights, and exposes US "hypocrisy" which China (rightly many would claim) asserts is merely a pretext for continued US attempts at world "hegemony". As Xinhua reports on its front page, "The Human Rights Record of the United States in 2010 was released by the Information Office of China's State Council, or cabinet, in response to the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2010 issued by the U.S. Department of State on April. The U.S. reports are "full of distortions and accusations of the human rights situation in more than 190 countries and regions including China. However, the United States turned a blind eye to its own terrible human rights situation and seldom mentioned it," China's report said." The war of words hits a new all time record: "The United States has taken human rights as "a political instrument to defame other nations' image and seek its own strategic interests," the report said. While illustrating a dismal record of the United States on its own human rights, China's report said the United States could not be justified to pose as the world's "human rights justice." "However, it released the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices year after year to accuse and blame other countries for their human rights practices," the report said. These moves fully expose the United States' hypocrisy by exercising double standards on human rights and its malicious design to pursue hegemony under the pretext of human rights, it said. The report advised the U.S. government to "take concrete actions to improve its own human rights conditions, check and rectify its acts in the human rights field, and stop the hegemonistic deeds of using human rights issues to interfere in other countries' internal affairs." While that last sentence may not be an explicit warning for the US to shut the hell up and focus on its own dirty laundry, or else, it sure does sound like one.


VIOLATION OF CITIZENS' RIGHTS
In the United States, the violation of citizens' civil and political rights by the government is severe, said the report.
Citizen's privacy has been undermined. More than 6,600 travelers had been subject to electronic device searches between October 1, 2008 and June 2, 2010, nearly half of them American citizens, said the report, citing figures released by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) in September 2010.
The report said abuse of violence and torturing suspects to get confession is serious in the U.S. law enforcement, and "wrongful conviction occurred quite often."
While advocating Internet freedom, the U.S. in fact imposes fairly strict restriction on cyberspace, said the report.
The United States applies double standards on Internet freedom by requesting unrestricted "Internet freedom" in other countries, which becomes an important diplomatic tool for the U.S. to impose pressure and seek hegemony, and imposing strict restriction within its own territory, the report said.
The U.S. regards itself as "the beacon of democracy." However, its democracy is largely based on money, the report said.
According to media report in 2010, U.S. House and Senate candidates shattered fundraising records for a midterm election, taking in more than 1.5 billion U.S. dollars as of October 24. The midterm election, held in November 2010, finally cost 3.98 billion U.S. dollars, the most expensive in the U.S. history.
HIGHEST INCIDENCE OF VIOLENT CRIMES
One out of every five people is a victim of a crime in the United States every year, said the report.
The United States reports the world' s highest incidence of violent crimes, and its people's lives, properties and personal security are not duly protected, the report said.
In 2009, an estimated 4.3 million violent crimes, 15.6 million property crimes and 133,000 personal thefts were committed against U.S. residents aged 12 or older, and the violent crime rate was 17.1 victimizations per 1,000 persons, said the report, quoting figures from the U.S. Department of Justice.
The United States also ranks first in the world in terms of the number of privately-owned guns and had high incidence of gun-related crimes, said the report, noting that the United States exercised lax control on the already rampant gun ownership.
Some 90 million people own an estimated 200 million guns in the United States, which has a population of about 300 million, the report said citing figures from the public media.
Statistics showed there were 12,000 gun murders a year in the United States, the report said.
The report also said that the frequent campus shootings in colleges in the United States came to the spotlight in recent years.
RACIAL DISCRIMINATION DEEP-SEATED
"Racial discrimination, deep-seated in the United States, has permeated every aspect of social life," said the report.
Minority groups confront discrimination in their employment and occupation. The black people are treated unfairly or excluded in promotion, welfare and employment, the report quoted U.S media reports as saying.
It is reported that one-third of black people confronted discrimination at work, against which only one-sixteenth of the black people would lodge a complaint.
The New York Times reported on September 23, 2010 that by the end of September 30, 2009, Muslim workers had filed a record 803 claims of complaints over employment discrimination, up 20 percent from the previous year.
The report said U.S. minority groups have high unemployment rate, and do not enjoy the same political status as white people.
Poverty proportion for U.S. minorities is high in the United States. The poverty proportion of the black was 25.8 percent in 2009, and those of Hispanic origin and Asian were 25.3 percent and 12.5 percent respectively, much higher than that of the non-Hispanic white at 9.4 percent, said the report, citing U.S. media figures.
The report also said that U.S. minority groups face obvious inequality in education, and the health care for African-American people is worrisome.
Racial discrimination is evident in the law enforcement and judicial systems, racial hate crimes are frequent, and immigrants' rights and interests are not guaranteed, said the report.
RIGHTS OF WOMEN, CHILDREN IS BOTHERING
Gender discrimination against women widely exists in the United States, and women in the country often experience sexual assault and violence.
Statistics showed that some 20 million women are rape victims in the country, some one fifth female students on campus are victims of sexual assault, and nearly 3,000 female soldiers were sexually assaulted in fiscal year 2008, up nine percent from the year before.
Women are also victims of domestic violence in the United States, said the report, as some 1.3 million people fall victim to domestic violence every year, with women accounting for 92 percent.
Many children in the U.S. live in poverty and their physical and mental health is not ensured as nearly one in four children struggles with hunger, according to the report.
The report also pointed out that violence against children is very severe in the country, citing figures from the official website of Love Our Children USA that every year, over three million children are victims of violence reportedly and the actual number is three times greater.
More than 93,000 children are currently incarcerated in the United States, and between 75 and 93 percent of children have experienced at least one traumatic experience, including sexual abuse and neglect, the report said.
According to the report, pornographic content is rampant on the Internet and severely harms American children as seven in 10 children have accidentally accessed pornography on the Internet and one in three has done so intentionally.
INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS
The United States has a notorious record of international human rights violations, said the report.
The U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have caused huge civilian casualties.
Figures from the WikiLeaks website revealed up to 285,000 war casualties in Iraq from March 2003 through the end of 2009, with 63 percent of the 109,000 people killed in the Iraq war being civilians.
"The U.S. military actions in Afghanistan and other regions have also brought tremendous casualties to local people," said the report.
The report cited the notorious case on a "kill team" formed by five soldiers from the 5th Stryker Combat Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan. The team had committed at least three murders, where they randomly targeted and killed Afghan civilians, and dismembered the corpses and hoarded the human bones.
In addition, the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops had caused 535 Afghan civilian deaths and injuries in 2009. Among them 113 civilians were shot and killed, an increase of 43 percent over 2008, the report quoted McClatchy Newspapers as saying.
PRISONER ABUSE SCANDALS
The United States have been holding individuals captured under the pretext of the "war on terror" and abusing detainees with various methods, according to the report.
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) established secret detention facilities to interrogate so-called "high-value detainees," said the report, citing a document submitted to the United Nations Human Rights Council in May 2010.
According to the document, the CIA had taken custody of 94 detainees, and had employed "enhanced techniques" to varying degrees, including stress positions, extreme temperature changes, sleep deprivation and "waterboarding" in the interrogation of 28 of those detainees.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Highest and Lowest Unemployment Rates

Comment: Francis Soyer

Take a look at these "reported" rates coming from (AP). To get the real number multiply these numbers below by 2.


(AP) -- Unemployment rates fell in more than three-quarters of the nation's 372 largest metro areas in February, a sign that recent hiring gains have been widespread and not limited to a few healthy regions.
Below are the cities with the highest and lowest unemployment rates. Figures are in percentages.
Best and Worst Metro areas
Highest unemployment rates Feb. 2011
1.El Centro, Calif. 26.9

2.Yuma, Ariz. 21.5

3.Merced, Calif. 21.3

4.Yuba City, Calif. 21.3

5.Fresno, Calif. 18.2

6.Modesto, Calif. 18.1

7.Visalia-Porterville, Calif. 18.1

8.Hanford-Corcoran, Calif. 18.0

9.Stockton, Calif. 17.6

10.Ocean City, N.J. 17.0

Lowest unemployment rates Feb. 2011
1.Lincoln, Neb. 4.2

2.Bismarck, N.D. 4.6

3.Ames, Iowa 4.7

4.Iowa City, Iowa 4.7

5.Fargo, N.D. 4.7

6.Burlington, Vt. 4.8

7.Midland, Texas 4.8

8.Honolulu, Hawaii 5.2

9.Portsmouth, N.H. 5.2

10.Charlottesville, Va. 5.3

Financial_System_Designed_To_Self_Destruct

As each day passes the US dollar loses prestige and its status as a world reserve currency. Washington and Wall Street pay little attention to its slide and the changes a lower dollar and loss of reserve status will bring. Once the dollar is dethroned Americans will have to learn to live on the edges of the economic and financial world. Those of you who have not read G. Edward Griffins’ “Creature from Jekyll Island” should. It tells you why the Federal Reserve was created and why the Federal Reserve was created and what its function is. It also shows you why except for Wall Street, banking and selected elitist corporations why the system was designed to self-destruct. If you read economic and financial history you will discover why such economic and financial destruction takes place repeatedly and that more often than not does not happen due to incompetence, war or error, but it is planned that way. What has happened to the dollar since Bretton Woods and the planned removal of gold backing from the dollar is an example of deliberate destruction and in that process the destruction of the greatest nation in history. In that process of 97 years the wealthy and connected have become wealthier and powerful and have become even more so. They truly expect to exit this maelstrom and war as the leaders of the future. We have news for them. The power of talk radio and the Internet stretches worldwide and the world now understands what they are up too, and they are not going to be successful in their efforts to bring about world government. The collapse of the dollar is but one aspect in the change planned in the shift in world power.

Silver Shorts Getting Slapped Around...


Submitted by: Francis Soyer 4/8/11 06:55

As the government shutdown approaches notice what happens with precious metals and the dollar. As one economist put it, (Martin Armstrong) is an issue of the ECM (Economic Confidence Model). Not to be confused with consumer confidence or investor confidence which are two completely seperate issues. The ECM model is directly related to confidence in governmental systems. This is why precious metals will continue to rise and rise sharply over the next 18 months with little or no pullbacks of any consequence. By my own work it is not unreasonable to expect Silver at $300 and Gold at $3,000 to $5,000 3 being the low end and 5 upper.

The key issue being that world governments and their stability are directly linked to world central banking. World central banking and their continued monetary value dilution do nothing but erode the ECM model. It erodes that model in that the stimulus intended to spark growth simply gets absorbed into the banking system however never reaches the general economy in the form of loans to spark economic growth. I think very few economists of any salt would disagree that the system is broken and badly so.

Hence why precious metals and also commodities in general will continue to rise in dollar / eur / Yen etc. in that it takes more of them to have the same purchasing power as in the past because their value continues to fall as central banking prints more of them out of thin air. For more on this concept please visit Armstrong Economics at http://armstrongeconomics.com/

He just got out of prison so no posts as of recently but he did some brilliant work while serving time. :)

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Forget The Budget, The Real Nightmare Begins Next Month And The Sakes Are 100x as High

A point that needs to be made: This fight over whether to shut down the government for a few days is chicken-scratch.
It's low-stakes poker compared to the fight over the debt ceiling, which must be resolved by May 8, in just over a month.
Several GOPers have already said they won't raise it without some "significant" concessions from The White House on the future of spending, and whatever good will John Boehner has to burn up in getting a budget passed will be taken directly from the appetite the GOP had in raising the debt ceiling.
The consequences are way more severe, potentially, than the shutdown of government. At the most extreme, it could lead to default. And if you figure that the market goes into a tizzy at the suggestion of, say, Greece defaulting, then the impact of the US should be easy to comprehend.
There's no doubt that Boehner doesn't want a disastrous outcome, but his challenge is in getting his more radical compatriots to come along with him.
So enjoy the theater of what we're seeing now. It's just the opening band.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-debt-ceiling-debate-2011-4#ixzz1IsAxIIQP

Confirmation on Israel War Threat



Submitted by: Francis Soyer
4/7/11

In response the the headline just posted on Zero Hedge that a Netanyahu Spokesman made an announcement that all out war could begin as early as tonight within Gaza I have gotten confirmation from Al Jazeera that "Violence erupts across Gaza Border"

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/20114713475225620.html

This is a very serious development and has the potentional if this does in fact occur to crush equity indices. Hence defensive trading advised.

Netanyahu Spokesman Says War May Break Out Between Israel And Gaza As Early As Tonight

Just to make the clusterflock complete the following news from BBC Newsfile crosses the tape: "The Ma'an News Agency website in Arabic at 1631 gmt on 7 April posts the following "urgent" caption: "[Ofir] Gendelman [spokesman for the office of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu] Tells Ma'an: I do not rule out the possibility that Israel will wage war on Gaza tonight." Or, more metaphorically, the proverbial flame in a fireworks store. Surely this last straw will send the S&P limit [up

down] until someone has the brilliant idea that Bernanke can print his way out of that one as well.
More as we see it.

Eric Sprott on Silver

RANsquak European Morning Summary

Morning Research Summary

Quick summary of today's news:

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Geithner warns U.S. to hit debt ceiling by May 16

(Reuters) - The United States will hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow no later than May 16, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Monday, ramping up pressure on Congress to act to avoid a debt default.
"The longer Congress fails to act, the more we risk that investors here and around the world will lose confidence in our ability to meet our commitments and our obligations," Geithner said in a letter to congressional leaders.
"Default by the United States is unthinkable."
Previously, the Treasury had forecast that the $14.3 trillion statutory debt limit would be reached between April 15 and May 31. As of Friday, Treasury borrowing stood just $95 billion from the ceiling.
Some Republican lawmakers have sought to use the need to raise the debt limit as a lever to pressure the Obama administration into agreeing on large-scale budget cuts.
The debt-limit showdown comes as Congress struggles to complete a spending package that would keep the government operating beyond Friday.
Republicans are seeking to use that bill to enact deep spending cuts and lawmakers are focusing on a proposal to trim this year's budget by $33 billion, a relatively small amount compared with a projected $1.4 trillion deficit.
Geithner said a failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely way would push interest rates higher and spark "a financial crisis potentially more severe than the crisis from which we are only starting to recover."
Both Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have said a failure to raise the ceiling could have "catastrophic consequences."

BUYING TIME
As the government nears the debt ceiling, the Treasury has authority to take certain extraordinary measures to postpone the date the United States would default on its obligations.
However, those actions would be exhausted after about eight weeks and there would be "no headroom" to borrow after July 8, Geithner said.
Some lawmakers have called for legislation to force the Treasury to first pay interest on U.S. bonds before other obligations, such as unemployment benefits and Social Security and Medicare payments, as a way to stave off a debt default.
They have also asked Treasury whether financial assets such as the country's gold reserves or the government's portfolio of student loans could be sold to avoid raising the debt ceiling.
Treasury has rejected the proposals as unworkable.

Soros advises Obama to use forceful measures to override the will of the people

By Ed Lasky for American Thinker
George Soros funds the Center for American Progress, which has been characterized as Barack Obama’s Ideas Factory. John Podesta, its head, led the transition team when Barack Obama became President. The Center has also become a hiring hall for the Obama team, filling its positions with former employees (among these was controversial Van Jones — who now is back at the Center).

Apparently, George Soros and his Center are upset that the American people placed a roadblock in their plans when we rose up and painted the nation red. The Center now is providing a blueprint of ways Barack Obama can do an end run around the people’s will by resorting to methods that will strike many of us as being improper-to say the least. Relying on executive orders, interpretation of regulations, rule -making and the like they are collectively a recipe for even more power being assumed by President Obama.
From Tuesday’s Politico Playbook:
[The] Center for American Progress today is releasing a report, “Power of the President,” proposing 30 executive actions the president can take to advance progressive change in the areas of energy, the economy, health care, education, foreign policy, and national security. “The following authorities can be used to ensure progress on key issues facing the country today: Executive orders, Rulemaking, Agency management, Convening and creating public-private partnerships , Commanding the armed forces, Diplomacy.
The New York Times fleshes out these proposals with some suggestions about policy changes across the board. The ideology of George Soros shines through the Center’s report as it justifies this forceful approach to circumvent Congress when it states that:
[The] legislative battles that Mr. Obama waged during his first two years – notably on health care and financial regulatory reform – have created a weariness among the general public with the process of making laws. And it hints it has not helped Mr. Obama politically in the process.
In other words, when Congress passed a variety of laws Americans became dismayed by the horse-trading and bribes that were resorted to by Democrats to impose these policies on us. Instead of compromise and listening to the American people, Soros counsels that more forceful measures should be used to override the will of the American people.
And this is the man the Democratic Party has as their sugar daddy and who various Democratic leaders over the years have defended and praised (for example, as shown by this letter from 11 Democratic lawmakers).
He is certainly a dictatorial daddy.

Sprott Physical Gold Trust Announces Follow On, Will Sequester Another $300 Million In Physical; PSLV Next?

It's a good thing that unlike the silver market, which continues to be in backwardation (see chart), the gold market is fully supplied. Otherwise the just released news from Sprott Asset Management that his Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is pursuing a $300 million follow on would finally send gold breaking out to $2,000, where it will be sooner or later anyway. Amusingly, contrary to various other blogs' expectations that Sprott is top ticking the market with selling shareholder shelf statements, Sprott is doing just the opposite: "certain funds managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, have agreed to purchase no less than $115 million of Units in this Offering." So yeah, no top tick here. Still, the news that Sprott is about to mop up another $300 million in physical gold from the market will likely send gold quite higher. It appears to have already had an impact on silver, which jumped by $20 cents to another 31 year high on the news, as the market now likely expects a follow on offering in PSLV as well imminently.




The press release
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - 04/04/11) - Sprott Physical Gold Trust (the "Trust") (TSX:PHY.U - News)(NYSE:PHYS - News), a trust created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion and managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, announced today that it has launched a follow-on offering of transferable, redeemable units of the Trust ("Units") in an aggregate amount of up to $340 million at a price of $12.54 per unit (the "Offering"). Certain lead investors, including certain funds managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, have agreed to purchase no less than $115 million of Units in this Offering.
The Trust will use the net proceeds of this Offering to acquire physical gold bullion in accordance with the Trust's objective and subject to the Trust's investment and operating restrictions described in the prospectus related to this Offering. Under the trust agreement governing the Trust, the net proceeds of the Offering per unit must be not less than 100% of the most recently calculated net asset value per Unit of the Trust prior to, or upon determination of, pricing of the offering.
The Units are listed on the NYSE Arca and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols "PHYS" and "PHY.U", respectively. The Offering will be made simultaneously in the United States and Canada by Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets.

Saudi Oil Minister Says Crude To Hit $300 If Turmoil Spreads To Saudi

Saudi Arabia Goes M.A.D.:

Saudi Oil Minister Says Crude To Hit $300 If Turmoil Spreads To Saudi


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/05/2011 08:45 -0400

The strategy of Mutual Assured Destruction has worked so well in the "developed" world (thank you Hank Paulson, Tim Jeethner, Clearinghouse Association et al), it is time to see it in application in the "developing." In an attempt to preempt US doubts about intervening (on the proper side) in the case of escalations in Saudi Arabia (and with the possibility of Yemen becoming a potential Al Qaeda hotbed rising by the hour, this is non-trivial) the former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani told Reuters on Tuesday that "Oil prices could leap to $200 to $300 a barrel if Saudi Arabia is hit by serious political unrest." We are confident he was merely talking in a very, very hypothetical scenario. After all why scaremonger in a world in which everything is under control?
From Reuters:
"If something happens in Saudi Arabia it will go to $200 to $300," he said.
"I don't expect this for the time being, but who would have expected Tunisia?" he added.
Asked whether the United States was likely to succeed in cutting its dependence on Saudi oil, he said: "From the 1950s, American presidents have been saying this."
U.S. President Barack Obama last week proposed to cut oil imports by a third over 10 years.
Than again with math Ph.D.'s continuing to (front) run US stock markets, and unable to make the mathematical leap between $108 oil and a 4% full year GDP forecast by Goldman (soon to be cut to 1.5%), we are confident $300 oil will have no material impact on stocks, until such time as the Globex hikes margin requirements on the ES which will be the catalyst for the next market crash.

Monday, April 4, 2011

Frontrunning: April 4

Frontrunning: April 4
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/04/2011 07:51 -0400


•Goldman lowers Q1 GDP, sees rest of year outlook as "messy: (Zero Hedge)

•GOP Aim: Cut $4 Trillion (WSJ)

•Trichet Seen Burying Ailing Nations With Interest-Rate Rise (BusinessWeek)

•ECB criticised over expected rate rise (FT)

•Important for China arbs: BOC HK Cuts Yuan Deposit Interest Rate (Bloomberg)

•In Tripoli, Growing Murmurs Of Dissent (WSJ)

•Inflation Surge May Cause Hike in Won, Rates (Korea JoongAng)

•Us Foreign Policy "Shocker": U.S. Shifts to Seek Removal of Yemen’s Leader, an Ally (NYT)

•Next Problem for Oil: Nigerian Elections (WSJ)

•Geithner Says Strict Policy on Currency Hurts China (NYT)

•China closes half the nation's dairies (Telegraph)

•Ireland to Push for Better Bailout Terms (WSJ)

Ron Paul on Legal Tender Laws, Coin Shortages, Interest Rates, Municipal Bonds, the Gold Standard

Ron Paul on Legal Tender Laws, Coin Shortages, Interest Rates, Municipal Bonds, the Gold Standard


Commodity Online News has an interesting article regarding a new bill introduced by Ron Paul to repeal legal tender laws, an investigation of the coin shortage, and Paul's positions on interest rates and a return to the gold standard.
Ron Paul to probe US Mint Coin shortage

Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has one question for the U.S. Mint: why is there a coin shortage? He is aiming to get to the bottom of this during a scheduled April 7 hearing of his U.S. House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy to examine the bullion programs at the U.S. Mint.
“We are going to try and find out what the Mint has done so they can give us a better answer as to why there is a shortage. Why can’t they keep the supply of coins up?” said the congressman in an exclusive interview with Kitco News.
Part of the problem lies in manufacturing the blanks, said Paul. The blank planchets are not made at the Mint, which hasn't had the production capacity for this stage of the minting process since the budget cuts of 1981.
“Looks like we don’t even get (all) blank coins made in the U.S. – there is a contract with a foreign company, which makes no sense at all,” said the congressman.
Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011
In March, Paul introduced H.R. 1098, the Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011, which would repeal legal tender laws in order to prohibit taxation on gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium bullion. The bill has been referred to the House Committees on Financial Services, Ways and Means, and Judiciary.
A staunch critic of the Federal Reserve, Paul said that instead of arguing his case for the Fed to close down tomorrow, he’s arguing the fact it should not hold a monopoly. “They have a monopoly on a type of money that isn’t even constitutional,” he said.
“We would use no force, nobody has to use gold and silver coins,” said Paul. Rather, he said the Fed does use force. “They are a cartel and they make us use Federal Reserve notes,” he said.
Gold Standard
A common assumption is that Paul is calling for a return to a gold standard. He clarified, saying he is not so inflexible. “I wouldn’t be overly rigid and say, ‘you must have a gold standard, you must go back to what we had.’ Our gold standard was imperfect, even though it worked better than the paper standard,” he said.
Lawmakers in several states, including Tennessee, Virginia, New Hampshire and South Carolina, have introduced bills to look into minting their own currencies in the event of a complete breakdown of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In Georgia, a bill to make the state only use gold and silver is in committee.
Utah has received the most media attention on this subject as the House and Senate have passed HB317, which would recognize gold and silver coins as legal tender and exempt them from certain state tax liability.
“Governments over the many, many centuries have always demanded monopoly control over money. Even when gold and silver were principally used in the economies, they still wanted monopolies,” Paul said.
Hence, he is not confident that any Utah law would be allowed to stand. “Well, they are going to fight it tooth and nail. They are not going to go along with this even though we have the law and Constitution on our side and it should appeal to all Americans to have competition.”
Interest Rate Hikes and Municipal Bond Defaults
Regarding U.S. interest rate hikes, Paul said they are going to be gradual and steady but they are indeed coming. “The next big shoe to fall will be interest rates going up on municipal bonds -- that means a lot of these bonds will start defaulting,” he said.

There is more in the article including a discussion on another run for president. I hope he does run even though he has little chance of winning.
His issues are important ones and they merit adoption. The first step, however, is more awareness, and his running for president would do just that.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com