Van Hoisington shares a good analysis at the reverse psychology that the prevailing crowd grasped, and yet was completely lost on the Ivy League educated Academics at the Marriner Eccles building.
If the objectives of Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) were to: a) raise interest rates; b) slow economic growth; c) encourage speculation, and d) eviscerate the standard of living of the average American family, then it has been enormously successful. Clearly, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight these results represent the Federal Reserve’s impact on the U.S. economy, regardless of their claims to the contrary.
For example, the Fed promoted the idea that implementation of QE1 and QE2 would lower interest rates. Apparently this fantasy was based on the assumption that the flow of their purchases would heavily offset (and in the case of QE2 almost fully offset) the flow of new debt being issued by the U.S. Treasury. This flow analysis appears irrefutable in concept, but actually interest rates rose across the yield curve in both cases. Why? Concentrating on the flow of Treasury debt, apparently the Fed failed to take into account that the existing stock of outstanding Treasury debt totaled nearly $8 trillion. The holders included individuals, mutual funds, pension plans, insurance companies, state and local governments and foreigners. Their actions indicate that they perceived Federal Reserve activity to be inflationary, and therefore harmful to their position. Their response was to reduce their relative holdings of Treasuries and purchase riskier assets. Interest rates rose. One large investor famously sold all his Treasuries—a rational choice in the shorter end of the Treasury market as some day QE2 will have to be reversed.
Why the Fed would believe the economy could benefit from the addition of $600 billion (the QE2 target) in reserves to a banking system that already had over $1.1 trillion in unused, idle, but potentially inflationary reserves on hand nearly defies understanding. The action, however, was not lost on holders of the $8 trillion Treasury securities outstanding.
This increase in the level of interest rates occurred, not only during QE2, but in QE1 as well. Thus the Federal Reserve engineered a rate increase, and the injection of excess reserves had several other deleterious ramifications for the U.S. economy.
According to Van Hoisignton this is what needs to happen:
Presently the Fed is odd man out among the world’s leading central banks. A major divergence in opinion has risen between the Fed on one side, and the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, and the PBOC on the other side. These major foreign central banks, unlike the Fed, believe that extreme monetary intervention has contributed to higher inflation. For that reason the ECB has taken rates higher to stop inflation tendencies and the BOE is preparing to take initial steps to remove extreme monetary accommodation. Such actions are likely to produce lower inflation and better results than Fed policy. While terminating QE2 will not result in a restoration of the Fed’s balance to a reasonable size, this is an essential first step. Such a move will serve to reinforce actions by the ECB, BOE and PBOC. As such, the global upturn in inflation will reverse, thereby placing the global economy on a more stable footing. risk adverse investments. This will release funds for the mortgage market and credit worthy state and local governments. Upward pressure on commodity prices will abate. This will begin to mitigate the downward pressure on real wage income and consumer confidence. The lower commodity prices will also serve to unwind the corporate margin squeeze that resulted from the higher commodity costs.
While the economy will slow initially, the drop in inflation over time should lift real income and serve to stabilize the economy. The dollar should firm, encouraging foreign investors to place additional funds in U.S. markets. Taken together, these factors should give the economy the opportunity to stand on its own, rather than rely on massive governmental interventions whose potentially negative and unintended consequences are unknown.
The evidence of the past three years seems clear in that monetary and fiscal policy have been unable to improve the average American’s standard of living. Time will be required to reestablish balance sheets to more normal levels, and in the interim disinflationary/deflationary tendencies will be ascendant. This environment is favorable for holders of long dated Treasuries. Positioning for an inflation boom will prove to be disappointing.
We agree. Which is why this outlook will never be realized. The Fed will simply never accept the risk of another bout of deflation. Period.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule
The Desk's tentative outright Treasury operation schedules for the purchases associated with the $600 billion purchase program announced by the FOMC on November 3, 2010 and for the purchases associated with the reinvestment of principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS announced by the FOMC on August 10, 2010.
Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $97 billion. This represents $80 billion in purchases of the announced $600 billion purchase program and $17 billion in purchases associated with principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between mid-April and mid-May.
Range Expected Purchase Size
April 13, 2011 April 14, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/15/2012-09/30/2013 $4 - $6 billion
April 14, 2011 April 15, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
April 15, 2011 April 18, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 04/30/2015-09/30/2016 $5 - $7 billion
April 18, 2011 April 19, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028-02/15/2041 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
April 19, 2011 April 20, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2013-03/31/2015 $5 - $7 billion
April 20, 2011 April 21, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013-02/15/2041 $1 - $2 billion
April 25, 2011 April 26, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2016-03/31/2018 $6 - $8 billion
April 26, 2011 April 27, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2021-11/15/2027 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
April 28, 2011 April 29, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 04/30/2015-09/30/2016 $5 - $7 billion
April 29, 2011 May 2, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2013-03/31/2015 $5 - $7 billion
May 2, 2011 May 3, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
May 3, 2011 May 4, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2016-05/02/2018 $6 - $8 billion
May 4, 2011 May 5, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013-02/15/2041 $1 - $2 billion
May 5, 2011 May 6, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028-02/15/2041 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
May 6, 2011 May 9, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2013-04/30/2015 $5 - $7 billion
May 9, 2011 May 10, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
May 10, 2011 May 11, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2015-10/31/2016 $5 - $7 billion
May 11, 2011 May 12, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2016-05/02/2018 $6 - $8 billion
The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on May 11, 2011. At that time, the Desk will also publish information on prices paid for securities included in the operations listed above.
Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $97 billion. This represents $80 billion in purchases of the announced $600 billion purchase program and $17 billion in purchases associated with principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between mid-April and mid-May.
Range Expected Purchase Size
April 13, 2011 April 14, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/15/2012-09/30/2013 $4 - $6 billion
April 14, 2011 April 15, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
April 15, 2011 April 18, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 04/30/2015-09/30/2016 $5 - $7 billion
April 18, 2011 April 19, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028-02/15/2041 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
April 19, 2011 April 20, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2013-03/31/2015 $5 - $7 billion
April 20, 2011 April 21, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013-02/15/2041 $1 - $2 billion
April 25, 2011 April 26, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2016-03/31/2018 $6 - $8 billion
April 26, 2011 April 27, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2021-11/15/2027 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
April 28, 2011 April 29, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 04/30/2015-09/30/2016 $5 - $7 billion
April 29, 2011 May 2, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2013-03/31/2015 $5 - $7 billion
May 2, 2011 May 3, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
May 3, 2011 May 4, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2016-05/02/2018 $6 - $8 billion
May 4, 2011 May 5, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013-02/15/2041 $1 - $2 billion
May 5, 2011 May 6, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028-02/15/2041 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
May 6, 2011 May 9, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2013-04/30/2015 $5 - $7 billion
May 9, 2011 May 10, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
May 10, 2011 May 11, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2015-10/31/2016 $5 - $7 billion
May 11, 2011 May 12, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2016-05/02/2018 $6 - $8 billion
The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on May 11, 2011. At that time, the Desk will also publish information on prices paid for securities included in the operations listed above.
"I Give Up - Pay Anything"
Daily Show: I Give Up - Pay Anything...
As greedy public workers bankrupt states, America makes it harder for honest corporate citizens to create jobs.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-march-28-2011/i-give-up---pay-anything---
As greedy public workers bankrupt states, America makes it harder for honest corporate citizens to create jobs.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-march-28-2011/i-give-up---pay-anything---
Trade Alert buying 1/4 Position COW $31.45 or better
Submitted by: Francis Soyer 4/12/11
Buying COW etf 1/4 position meaning Franics is ready to commit 3/4 more nominal position size (position size never to exceed) 5% of portfolio value at 31.45 o/b (or better)
Stop and buy more (Next 1/4 leg in) $29.50
Next 1/4 $29.00
Final 1/4 28.50
Time Frame 3-4 Months
Upside Target sell all at $38.10
Richard Russell - Buy Pullbacks in Gold & Ignore the Top Callers
With gold and silver consolidating recent gains, the Godfather of newsletter writers Richard Russell had some interesting things to say in his latest commentary, “In all my years of investing, I have never seen an asset hit record highs, as gold has done recently, with less fanfare. There were no front page stories in the Wall Street Journal or Financial Times, heralding the new milestones." Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist and a member of Barron's Roundtable.”
After quoting Hickey, Russell continued:
“Gold is another story. The daily chart (above) shows gold breaking out of a head-and-shoulders bottom to the upside. Course of action -- sit with your precious metal position. Buy more on any pull-back toward the line of support (line of support is now at about 1450).
Russell comments on gold and silver -- Because the precious metals are in a massive bull market, many eager amateur analysts are now trying their hand on calling "the top." This is a hopeless and ridiculous endeavor during a powerful bull market. Much of this top-calling is done by an anti-gold element: Those who dislike gold or those who have missed the entire gold bull market. My advice all along has been to "ride the bull" and to ignore the "top callers."
The precious metals will correct when they are ready, and I might add that in ten years of closely following gold and silver, I have never come across anyone who has successfully called tops or who has successfully traded in-and-out of the metals. Advice -- stay invested in the metals until they exhaust themselves in panic buying.
Even then, what would you sell you gold for -- more fiat paper? We'll talk about selling precious metals when the time comes, which may be months or even years in the future.
Last, we turn to the Dollar Index...The Index is perched precariously above the critical 75 level with MACD in the process of turning negative.
A much longer view of the Dollar Index....Major critical support comes in at 70.69. I would think anything below 70 might set off a dollar panic.”
Gold has broken out above the $1,450 area and as Russell says, generally you want to buy on pullbacks toward that level. The public might be too skittish to do that, but the professionals certainly will. If that level holds, it will provide the base for the next leg higher in gold. For the non-professionals, simply accumulate each month on the same day and dollar cost average your purchases over time. This is a huge secular bull market, enjoy the ride. As far as the US dollar goes, God help us when we finally break 70 on that index.
After quoting Hickey, Russell continued:
“Gold is another story. The daily chart (above) shows gold breaking out of a head-and-shoulders bottom to the upside. Course of action -- sit with your precious metal position. Buy more on any pull-back toward the line of support (line of support is now at about 1450).
Russell comments on gold and silver -- Because the precious metals are in a massive bull market, many eager amateur analysts are now trying their hand on calling "the top." This is a hopeless and ridiculous endeavor during a powerful bull market. Much of this top-calling is done by an anti-gold element: Those who dislike gold or those who have missed the entire gold bull market. My advice all along has been to "ride the bull" and to ignore the "top callers."
The precious metals will correct when they are ready, and I might add that in ten years of closely following gold and silver, I have never come across anyone who has successfully called tops or who has successfully traded in-and-out of the metals. Advice -- stay invested in the metals until they exhaust themselves in panic buying.
Even then, what would you sell you gold for -- more fiat paper? We'll talk about selling precious metals when the time comes, which may be months or even years in the future.
Last, we turn to the Dollar Index...The Index is perched precariously above the critical 75 level with MACD in the process of turning negative.
A much longer view of the Dollar Index....Major critical support comes in at 70.69. I would think anything below 70 might set off a dollar panic.”
Gold has broken out above the $1,450 area and as Russell says, generally you want to buy on pullbacks toward that level. The public might be too skittish to do that, but the professionals certainly will. If that level holds, it will provide the base for the next leg higher in gold. For the non-professionals, simply accumulate each month on the same day and dollar cost average your purchases over time. This is a huge secular bull market, enjoy the ride. As far as the US dollar goes, God help us when we finally break 70 on that index.
Goldman Advises Clients To Sell Brent Down To $105 (As Goldman "Client Facing" Team Is Better Buyer?)
Yesterday Goldman launched the first salvo in the crude correction trade, telling clients to take premature profits on its CCCP (crude among others) basket as we reported previously. Today, Goldman sell-side energy analyst, once again completely unconflicted and ignorant of what is happening across the Chinese wall where all those former prop traders and now better known as "client facing associates" buy on behalf of Goldman's multi-billion balance sheet, has released his latest hit piece on oil. "We expect the oil market will experience a substantial pullback toward our $105/bbl near-term Brent crude oil price target." And for those wondering, when is the last time Goldman ever dropped their oil price forecast? Well, usually a month or so before the firm hikes it to $150 (see 2008).
Daily Research Summary 4/12/11
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
Yesterdays sell off in Silver as caused by a $1,000,000 dollar bet by COMEX (Crimex) that SLV would fall to $25.00 an ounce by July is the main suspect for the retreat. However, taking a closer look at this trade that went through something interesting to note. For one thing, half the daily volume were calls, and check out the total Open Interest (People Short This Downside Bet) This says that there are 3.2 million contracts betting against SLV would ever reach $25.00 By July. This is hardly a large bet that SLV will fall as described yesterday in the media. I suspect this may have even been a trade error. Or a larger player is using their weight to spin some headlines to get longer at a discount. The other possibility is that a trader on a desk probably fat fingered the key board when executing an order for July 35 Puts and his/her ass is grass today with the portfolio manager. It does happen unfortunately.
Symbol OptVolume Puts Calls AvgDailyVol OpenInt
SLV 698,162 382,221 315,941 228,700 3,270,383
Unfortunately by the time everyone figured out this was a bogus move down SLV this morning is already recovering thus eliminating the chance to leg in further at a discount.
Japan raises nuclear threat to highest level
Ivorian leader promises reconciliation
France: Says NATO not doing enough in Libya
Swaziland protest organizers arrested
Asian indices were in the red with the Nikkei down 1.69%. Major European indices are down and US futures indicate a negative open.
UK retail sales fell 1.9% year-over-year in March, the steepest decline in six years. Non-food retailers took an especially hard hit and the pound slid against the dollar on the news
German investor confidence plummeted in April due to rising oil prices and the ECB rate hike
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