On today's symbolic Fed moves to sure up the banks see the below. The chart speaks for itself.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Post Market Update 11/29/11
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
It is not very often I feel the need to post an aftermarket report in fact since I have been doing this letter I have not had to ever. Today is different and there is some news you should be aware of. After the close S&P cut credit ratings on 37 of the largest international banks. The consequences of these credit cuts will be similar to what happened prior to the liquidity freeze in the bond markets that led to the crash of 08.
If you remember these types of credit downgrades and their subsequent consequences were directly responsible for the down fall of AIG and the bailout that ensued with the major banks and the 700 billion Hank Paulson procured (black mailed) from the U.S. government.
The difference this time is that Uncle Sam does not have the cash flow to come to the rescue to these financial institutions. This is especially true when Uncle Sam needs to figure out how they are going to raise the debt ceiling by a minimum of 5 trillion just to get through FY 2012.
The specific risk that threatens global finance is because of the derivatives market in which these financial / banks participate in which represent hundreds of trillions of dollars. The counter party's to this derivative exposure held by all of the banks that have been downgraded by S&P will no doubt demand an increase collateral to preserve those positions. The problem is that these banks simply do not have it. Thus we should expect massive liquidations. Basically this is a margin call on the banking industry. The industry is in enough trouble already and this credit rating change could be the beginning of the end for many of the largest multinational banks. I expect carnage in the coming days.
The drill down article here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/standard-and-poors-downgrades-37-global-banks-among-which-bank-america-citi-wells-fargo-morgan-
In the after hours I am a buyer of SPXU the pro shares S&P ultra short ETF. This position is not to exceed 5% exposure.
Gold, Silver and Market News 11/29/11
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
Today's trading session is setting up to be a volatile one. We have the VIX (Volatility Index) a measure of fear in the market in the low 30's (Bearish) with futures higher 50 bips as of 8:00 a.m. on the Spiders. Do not be surprised to see the gap up get sold quickly and a possible sell off with some bad news out of American Airlines, credit downgrades and downgrade reviews for sovereign debt. Other than that I am not seeing anything in favor of bulls.
Seeking Alpha says: Buy Gold Ahead Of QE3
American Airlines Files For Bankruptcy
Moody's Puts EU on Downgrade Review
Europe Needs Six Trillion to Save Itself
Gold and Silver Rebound
Money Printing to Cause Significant Rise in Gold and Silver in 2012
Mark Faber: "I don't think that gold is particularly expensive. I think it's just the value of paper money that has completely imploded."
SocGen: Gold Highly Sensitive to US QE. Gold to $8,500 to catch up with the increase in monetary supply
Fitch Cuts U.S. Credit to Outlook Negative
Monday, November 28, 2011
Market News 11/28/11
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
This morning we have a gap up in futures as the major credit agencies re affirmed the U.S. credit rating at AAA. I am not expecting a bounce of any real consequence and am looking at 121 to 122 on the SPY's to see sellers step in. 115 is the first level of support if that gets breached the next level is looking to be 111 to 112.
Any short term gains on the SPY's or SDO's should be rolled into PSLV as this one in particular has been under heavy attack and is grossly over sold. PHYS has held up well in relation so the better buy is PSLV.
In Other headlines we have the following:
Pakistan targets U.S. troop supplies, drone base after NATO kills 24
Friday, November 25, 2011
Market Update 11/25/11
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
Today is a half session. Volume should be moderate as normal trade volume not executed on Thursday will try to find a home in the short session today. The central theme for today is STILL the Euro zone and its eminent demise. We should also expect chatter about Black Friday and sugar coated commentary on those sales and retail attempts to turn a losing year into a winning one. I am not bullish at all on retail and believe this years sales will be a great disappointment.
There are no POMO operations today so do not look to the FED to keep markets up.
Enclosed an interview with former Assistant Treasury Secretary in Ronald Reagan's administration discussing the Euro and other econ issues.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Banks Make Plans for Euro-Zone Split
Banks Make Plans for Euro-Zone Split
The Wall Street Journal reports Banks Ponder Euro-Zone Split
A key part of the world's foreign-exchange trading infrastructure is bracing itself for the possibility of a breakup of the euro zone, the latest sign investor concerns about the Continent's debt crisis are on the rise.This is the kind of discussion and action that is needed because a breakup appears inevitable.
CLS Bank International, which operates a platform in which banks settle most of their currency trades, is running "stress tests" to prepare for the possible dissolution of the euro, according to people familiar with the situation.
Some of the 63 banks that co-own CLS are making similar plans. "We always plan for contingencies," said a senior executive at one of the largest currency-dealing banks.
New York-based CLS is by far the biggest name in the currency market known to be making preparations for such a scenario. Analysts with Japanese bank Nomura Holdings said Friday that a euro breakup is a "very real risk," while HSBC Holdings analysts told clients on Tuesday that it's "not unimaginable" for countries to leave the euro zone.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Gold, Silver, Global and Market Update 11/22/11
Submitted by: Francis Soyer 11/22/11
On this numerically perfect day 11/22/11 here are the headwinds for bulls: In summary we have a European bank run, massive ECB intervention to prolong the inevitable destruction of the Euro. Massive gold and silver manipulation to send a message to investors that "all is well, nothing to see here."
This week is always about MSM (Main Stream Media) barraging us with the retail picture with the holiday shopping season that will begin in full swing this coming Friday or black Friday. Expect highly sugar coated reports on a failed retail season this year. The reason? we have close to 50 million people here in the U.S. on food stamps, real unemployment of roughly 25% and rising, real inflation year over year of 13% and rising and more layoff announcements from large corporations in the coming months. So we should see excuses like well this year because people are so busy more people will be putting off purchases to the last minute. If you want to get the true holiday shopping picture basically take whatever commentary you here from MSM and apply the exact opposite.
As for precious metals expect a bounce and a significant one next week after options and paper shenanigans have completed via options expiration for December contracts. I will be a buyer today.
In addition to the global fiscal challenges we have threats and rumors of war. Specifically with Iran and Israel. It is increasingly evident that the Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has been characterized as a pain in the ass by none other than Barrack "I cannot bear Netanyahu; he's a liar," Sarkozy told Obama in comments overheard by reporters in a separate room who were listening to a simultaneous translation. "You're fed up with him, but I have to deal with him even more often than you," Obama replied, according to the French interpreter.
Henry Blodget: The Run On Europe Begins As Global Investors Head For The Hills: "Until recently, the concern about Europe has been mostly theoretical--a potential train-wreck that would occur if/when the world's lenders decided that the continent's problems extended beyond the basket case known as Greece and cut lending to Europe's "core." Well, that concern is no longer theoretical. It's happening." Business Insider
Harvey Organ: Tomorrow is options expiry on the December contract so the bankers orchestrated an all out assault on the paper gold/silver comex market. This will probably continue until first day notice. As I told you many times, do not play with these crooks as they will fleece you every time as the regulators are in bed with the perpetrators.
Egypt Clashes: 22 Protesters gunned down In Tahrir Square. Protesters vow "We will fight to Death" to end Military Rule of Egypt and throwing out the U.S. puppets who have claimed control of Egypt. Obama Administration sides with the Egyptian military after gunning down protesters.
Mohamed El-Erian: US Economic Conditions Are "Terrifying", Recession Chances Are 50% Zerohedge
Israel and Iran Saber Rattling:
"Time has come to act on Iran" says Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak. AFP
An Iran Senior Revolutionary Guard Commander says "Our greatest wish is that they (Israel) commit such a mistake. For some time there has been a hidden energy we hope to expend to consign the enemies of Islam forever to the dustbin of history." AFP
Iran boycotting Middle East nuclear weapons summit: Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, made the announcement after the 35-nation governing board of the IAEA adopted a resolution on Friday rebuking Tehran over its nuclear programme. Reuters
Saudi Prince Warns a military attack on Iran could have catastrophic consequences. "If anything it will only make the Iranians more determined to produce an atomic bomb. It will rally support for the government among the population, and it will not end the program. It will merely delay it if anything." Reuters
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says a Strike on Iran could hurt world economy. He went on to comment that the most effective way to deal with Iran is to use diplomatic pressure and sanctions. "Obviously to go beyond that raises our concerns about the unintended consequences that could result, "And I have to tell you, thirdly, there are going to be economic consequences to that, that could impact not just on our economy but the world economy, So those things all need to be considered."
U.S. Election year ups the risk of Israeli attack on Iran: But Fitzpatrick former State Department Officer for nuclear non-proliferation sates that: "When you consider that next year being the U.S. presidential election year, and the dynamics of politics in the United States, this could increase Israel's inclination to take matters into its own hands."
UN Atomic Agency: Issues resolution of "deep and increasing concern" about Iran's nuclear program. AFP
Jerusalem protesters supporting Syria. "Down with imperialism and the conspiracy against Syria." AFP
Pakistan Ambassador to Washington Resigns: McClatchy
One in four Israelis living in Poverty. AFP
And now for a much needed up tick:
Monday, November 21, 2011
Pre Market Update 11/21/11
First lady booed at NASCAR event
Police Captain Stands With #Occupy Wall Street
Why Silver For A Monetary Collapse? Part 1
Your monies and positions are not safe
CONGRESS PASSES WIDE-RANGING BILL EASING BANK LAWS
Amerman: Gold/Housing Ratio Falls To Historic Low
Rogers: 100% chance of another 2008 crash
LaRouche: To Stop World War III Obama Must Be Removed from Office Now
Legal Expert Says Impeach Obama; Warns of War Danger
US Judge Declares Law Governing Warrantless Cellphone Tracking UNCONSTITUTIONAL
Russia Warships To Enter Syria Waters To Stop NATO
House Won't Sell? No Problem, Simply Raise the Price by 78%
CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight Issues Letter to Market Participants Requiring Compliance with New Large Trader Reporting System for Physical Commodity Swaps and Swaptions
Super Committee on the verge of failure: Impact on S&P
Friday, November 18, 2011
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/selecting-firearm/65011
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
The article below is from Chris Martenson. Chris is a financial journalist who focuses like me on the Macro picture for stocks and bonds. Normally his articles and front page are focuses on the daily grind of investor issues.
He has done some great work on crystallising in an easy to understand format of what investors are facing in the coming years in terms of asset valuation and how monetary policy will effect investing. Most astute investors understand we have serious challenges ahead of us. What is extraordinary about this article is when an investor letter starts talking about the below a bad sign of things to to come...
Original Article here:
Selecting a Firearm
Thursday, November 17, 2011, 12:04 pm, by Aaron Moyer
This is one of the more difficult pieces of writing I’ve done to date. There are various reasons why this topic is difficult to start; everyone has a different idea of what they need, their level of commitment, legal concerns, political pre-dispositions and so forth. It’s easy to talk about firearms as a ‘topic’ – you can comment on their particulars, weigh the advantages and disadvantages and wax philosophical about what would be the best choice for a given situation -- but that’s not what this edition is about.This piece is to help navigate the process that starts once you’ve decided you’d like to purchase a firearm, and leads to the ongoing process of establishing proficiency, maintaining safety and building skill.
Understanding the Options
The goal when procuring a firearm is to fit the model your purchase to your own specific set of needs and capabilities. What works for one person may very well not work for another.For instance, it’s fairly common knowledge that I heavily favor the Glock 19, in 9mm. It fulfills all my ‘requirements’ from what I want from a sidearm. That said, this solution will not work for everyone. Some folks lack grip strength, and cannot retract the slide fully. For some, it may be too big to carry – which ideally everyone who reads this will commit themselves to doing, in addition to acquiring training.
For this reason, we’ll discuss a metric that will help us learn to make purchases based on solid logic, proven performance, and your projected needs.
A word of caution: there is no “perfect” solution. Any selection you make will be a compromise, but the key is to stick with your decision, learn and become effective with whatever tool you find yourself using.
Firearm Categories
At the most basic, firearms come in three basic types:- Handguns
- Shotguns
- Rifles
Before we do, it’s important to define some terms. As with many topics, there is a lingo, and understanding it will help you better describe your needs to anyone you speak to about the issue.
Grip/Frame – The portion of the firearm which is grasped during firing
Slide/Receiver – The portion of the firearm which houses the mechanism responsible for cycling the weapon.
Cylinder – the portion of a revolver which acts as a magazine for the cartridges and aligns them with the barrel.
Bore – The inside of the barrel.
Breech – The portion of the barrel where the bullet rests when it is chambered
Lands and Grooves – the rifling which causes handgun and rifle bullets to spin as they pass through the bore.
Firepower/Capacity – the amount of ammunition held in a single firearm. High capacity/firepower is generally
considered >10 rounds, while <10 rounds is “low capacity”. This is a very academic definition, however.
Stopping Power – The theoretical ability for a bullet to “stop” an aggressor. This entire concept is horribly flawed, as there is no ‘consistency’, especially amongst pistols/shotguns.
Magazine – A magazine is a firm bodied device in which ammunition is inserted. It is inserted into the bottom of the weapon.
Clip – A metal strip which creates a horizontal line of cartridges which are fed in through the top of the action of a rifle. Two types exist, internal, and ‘stripper’. Internal are inserted, and eject when the last round is fired. Stripper clips require the user to press the rounds into an internal magazine.
Safety – A mechanical device which if used properly and is in functional condition, will prevent a firearm from firing.
Jam/Stoppage – An occurrence in which a firearm is prevented from extracting or loading a fresh cartridge, but requires only remedial action.
Malfunction – A mechanical or component failure which causes the weapon to cease functioning properly until it is replaced.
Revolvers (Hangun)
1. Overview
Revolvers are mechanically simple, involving little in the way of moving parts, are easy to carry and conceal, and range in size from something you could cover by making a fist, to something most people wouldn’t be comfortable shooting without a buttstock. Revolvers are commonly chambered in widely recognized calibers, such as .38 Special, .357 Magnum and .44 Magnum.
2. Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths:
- The barrel is not (in most cases) in motion during firing – this gives greater consistency and accuracy during firing.
- The sights of a revolver sit right atop the barrel – this results in a very low “height over bore” – meaning that the point you're aiming at and the point that the bullet strikes will have very little deviation based on mechanics. Ballistics will be the primary influence. Accuracy is largely a measure of skill, but this is an inherent advantage of the revolver.
Weaknesses:
- Revolvers cylinders are significantly limited in capacity – most ‘major’ calibers (> .38spl) will only hold 6 rounds. While some models will carry 8-9 rounds, this comes at a significant addition in size.
- Required Dexterity – Revolvers require a great deal more precision to load than auto-loading (magazine fed) pistols. This, coupled with the low capacity means that more time will be spent keeping the weapon in the fight, than you will actually spend fighting.
- Mechanical Stoppages – Firearms in general are mechanical devices prone to failure. While revolvers cannot ‘jam’ in the way an autoloader can (failure of the action to eject a spent cartridge), they can have mechanical stoppages – which occur when dirt, debris or fouling compromise the revolvers ability to cycle. This is a very serious situation that can often lead to the weapon being useless until it is cleared properly.
3. Bottom Line
While certainly better than nothing, the revolver continues to be popular amongst gun owners, but has fallen out of favor with those who carry handguns professionally for the reasons highlighted above. Many persuasive articles have been written on the subject, but findings by end users have shown that the limited capacity and slow reload speed make the revolver less suited to out and out ‘gunfights’. That said, for use in personal defense, many fine options exist.Auto-loader (Handgun)
1. Overview
The autoloader became popular with Colt’s M1911, adopted by the U.S. Army that year, and found continued support through the Browning Hi-Power. The automatic pistol is characterized by an operation that uses gas pressure from the detonation of the cartridge to press the slide backwards, out of battery, and at the same time eject the spent casing and load a fresh cartridge. This process occurs ‘automatically’ until the magazine is expended. Therefore, once the pistol is loaded (Full magazine inserted, slide pulled fully to the rear and released) the weapon is capable of firing until the magazine is empty.2. Strengths and Weakness:
Strengths:
- While generally more complex than revolvers, the automatic pistol can be operated more quickly (Ejecting a magazine and inserting a ‘fresh’ one can [practically] take around 2 seconds, whereas an ‘average’ for a revolver would be around 3 times that long, or 6 seconds).
- In addition to this, magazines can be carried which secure a great number more cartridges than do speed-loaders for revolvers, and require less fine motor skills (which is greatly important when stress is high)
- Because of their popularity, autoloaders have easily affordable and obtainable spare parts, replacement parts, accessories (such as magazines and holsters) and many more options in terms of accessories (such as flashlights, and sights).
Weaknesses:
- they do suffer from the drawback that because of the mechanism, empty shell casings can become ‘stuck’ if the slide cycles too quickly or without enough force. This causes a stoppage (Which can be discussed further), which requires remedial action.
- The great variety and gradient with regards to autoloader makes, models and quality requires that the prospective owner more carefully investigates what they’re buying.
- The more complicated design demands that the owner spend significantly more time learning to operate the pistol.
3. Bottom Line
The Autoloader is the more compelling choice for me, for a number of reasons, but it must be constantly re-enforced that it requires a great deal more practice to operate it accurately, effectively and safely.Shotguns
1. Overview
Shotguns are loosely categorized into three categories, much like handguns:- Break Action
- Pump
- Auto-loader
Shotguns were the mechanical outflow from the blunderbuss – the firearm that Elmer Fudd used to hunt rabbits. The barrel opened like a trumpet, to allow the ‘shot’ to spread once fired. This differs from the single projectile which is stabilized by the lands and grooves of barreling as in handguns and rifles, and so shotgun projectiles suffer from lower velocity, less accuracy and a disperse shot pattern – which can be fairly inconsistent.
2. Strengths and Weakness:
Strengths
It’s common to hear gun store cowboys talking about all sorts of firearm mythos. Common amongst shotguns is how you don’t have to “aim” a shotgun, and a shot will knock someone back a dozen feet or the like. None of this is true, but as with all myths, there is an element of embedded reality.
- Pattern – Shotgun shells, with the exception of rifled slugs, create a pattern when fired. These patterns vary with the type of shot (lead or steel pellets used in shells) and gauge (Diameter of the shell). Because there are many projectiles, shotgun blasts create jagged wounds, but because they lack velocity, beyond 25-50 yards, they quickly become superficial, and in some cases, insufficient to stop an attacker. However, this does allow the shot to be less accurate, while giving multiple chances per shot to strike vital areas.
- Energy transfer – Because shotguns create dramatic wounds, and use a large powder charge -- up close they produce quite a lot of velocity and energy, creating significant trauma.
- Commonality/Familiarity – shotguns are very common and familiar to many people. They are easy to reload shells for, and are forgiving with minor flaws in accuracy. They don’t draw much attention from people and are considered “politically correct”, if that enters into your thinking.
Weaknesses
The shotgun has various issues going against it for any purpose apart from hunting or very limited applications during home defense.
The shotgun has various issues going against it for any purpose apart from hunting or very limited applications during home defense.
- Slow to reload – limited capacity and slow reloads limit the shotgun’s use outside the home. While they can be used for hunting large game, they lack the velocity and range of a rifle, and the capacity of the handgun.
- Limited range – Because of the smooth bore barrel of the shotgun, range is typically limited to ~50 yards and less. This may not seem to be a disadvantage, and in a home defense situation it is not – but if you select a shotgun as a “do all” weapon, you’ll be handicapping yourself when it comes to other tasks.
- Pattern – While an asset in some situations, it must be considered that in a situation where you’re fighting for your life, such as a home invasion or if pressed to defend your community, a shotgun's patterning can lead to unintended injuries on hostages or friendly forces. Because of this, the same thing that is an advantage in certain situations can be a liability in others.
- Ammunition Bulk – 20 Shotshells takes up roughly the same amount of space as 60 rounds of 5.56 or 40 rounds of 7.62x51 (.308). This consideration is not important outside of war, but it is something that should be calculated in for “worst case” scenarios.
3. Bottom Line
Shotguns have unique liabilities and advantages that should be considered. The shotgun bridges a very narrow gap between the pistol and rifle – it’s more powerful than a pistol, but has the concealing properties of a rifle (that is to say – not concealable). It has the ‘range’ of a pistol, but within that range will produce results comparable to a rifle. For this reason, I spend very little time with the shotgun as a weapon, other than to familiarize myself in case I am forced to press one into service.However, one very important consideration I suggest thinking about is this:
If society collapses, it’s very likely that shot-shells will be one of the most commonly available and reloadable types of ammunition. Because of their sturdiness, they will be more forgiving and longer lasting.
Manual Rifle
1. Overview
Manual rifles are often found as bolt, lever action or pump action. Unlike most Autoloading rifles, they’re chambered in “full power” cartridges – which are significantly more powerful than the cartridges found in rifles like the M4 or even AK rifles. They generally feature internal magazines, which hold very few rounds.2. Strengths and Weakness:
Strengths
- Full powered rounds which are very powerful. Excellent for hunting large game.
- Excellent range – most of these rifles are perfectly capable of producing hits out to 600m with practice.
- Mechanically simple and extremely reliable
- Robust and durable
Weaknesses
- Heavier; these rifles commonly weigh 8-10 pounds
- Slower to load and manipulate
- Low magazine capacity – this is a negative to me, but may not be to you. However, since it is a “restrained” quality, I’m going to list it as a limitation.
- Often use bizarre, exotic or expensive cartridges which are produced in small quantities
Note: similar to the shotgun, the full powered cartridge can be an asset, but it can also be a terrible liability. In a home, the rifle round could easily travel through walls or even cars and strike objects or people behind them. This can be an asset in battle, but could be very troublesome as well.
3. Bottom Line
The rifle is the best “bang for the buck” so to speak. A good surplus rifle can be had for ~$150, will last a century, and will be useful for hunting and community defense. The rifle is to the community what the handgun is to the self, or the shotgun to the home.Autoloading Rifle
1. Overview
Autoloading rifles were born from the conflict of WWII. After the war revealed the urban nature of warfare, the Russians perfected the autoloading rifle in the ubiquitous AK-47, and its variants. America designed several excellent rifles of its own, including the M14 and M4 carbine. Sharing many of the advantages of the Manual rifle, with a drastically increased capacity and a medium power round, the Autoloading rifle is analogous to the autoloading pistol. It is mechanically more complex, carries with it a greater need for training and discipline to be used effectively, but is far and away superior to the slower firing, loading and manipulating manual rifle cousins.2. Strengths and Weakness:
Strengths
- Fires medium powered cartridges which are very effective from 15m-300m with little or no trouble – longer ranges are perfectly realistic.
- Allows user to fight longer, faster and harder than any other firearm listed
- .30 caliber variants (M14, AK, etc) can be used to hunt.
- Rugged and durable – military pattern rifles are made to withstand rigors that hunting rifles or commercial products are not. A battle-proven design will last for decades, if not centuries.
Weakness
- Stigma may attract unwanted attention or scorn
- Often very pricey
- Perhaps overpowered for home defense
- Many clones, knock-offs, or poorly made alternatives exist that will not be as durable or long lasting
- Requires magazines and ancillary equipment
- Lack of training and discipline make it easy to “spray and pray” rather than use effectively.
3. Bottom Line
Rifles are the best ‘all around’ choice when you look at the problem using the metric of “Accuracy”, “Simplicity” and “Terminal Ballistics”. In the case of Autoloading rifles, it continues this trend with “Capacity” and in the case of military pattern rifles, “Durability” as well.However, these aren’t available to everyone, and aren’t practical to carry on your person. This is where we see the rise of the “Survival Arsenal” fallacy. Generally written by “gun people”, this myth holds that you’re “not ready” unless you have a pistol, a rifle and a shotgun at your disposal.
The reason this is wrong? Well… Let’s look at our criteria.
Criteria For Selecting A Firearm
Now that we’ve defined the types of firearms available, and looked at some of their strengths and weaknesses, but we haven’t really talked much about what we need. Let’s face it – we all have different needs. So, does a couple in downtown Boston need a pistol, a rifle and a shotgun? Playing the numbers, they’ll have none of the above. So how do they start?How about a young guy or gal in rural Kentucky? Same needs?
The answer is there are no ‘magic bullets’ to determine what will suit you – but there are ways of minimizing the headache of selection, maintenance and use of the tool you may have to stake your life on.
First – buy quality, cry just once – and you will end up ahead of the game.
Second – Don’t waste your money on accessories until you’ve determined a need, not a want. Like the rest of America’s industries, the firearms industry wants to sell you lots of stuff you really don’t need. There are important accessories (magazines, holsters, and such), but most are poorly made, and don’t overcome any deficiency you couldn’t address on your own with more practice.
Third – don’t listen to the guy selling you the firearm. He sells them because he cannot work in the profession of arms. He’ll tell you lots and lots of things that sound ‘legit’, but are really pretty soft, from an intellectual standpoint. Do your own homework and research your selection.
So in a semi-prioritized fashion, here’s what to look for:
- Durability – In my opinion, having a weapon that is durable is more important than any single other influence. It simply has to work when you need it to. As a mechanical device, the quality of materials, craftsmanship and engineering will all impact how long the tool will last. If, like me, you’re buying this for the defense of your life, the most critical element is that it works under the worst conditions.
- Reliability – While this may seem the same as durability, it is not. While Durability vouches for the weapon's ability to take punishment, Reliability is a measure of how well it will work under those circumstances, and of course, after. The mechanical operation of the weapon must run as unimpeded as possible. That means, fewer parts break, fewer mechanical stoppages, and fewer full breakages. A reliable weapon that is durable will be handed down, through the generations, while a weapon that has only one quality will be hung above a mantle.
- Repair-ability – as a mechanical device, breakages are inevitable. When they do, you want the tool you’re using to be easy to fix and have replacement parts readily available. This speaks to anything from the magazines getting lost, or breaking an internal component to losing a spring, or breaking the stock. It must be easy to replace or salvage parts to keep your firearm in operational condition.
- Commonality – Commonality to me is a big one, and ultimately has helped me narrow down my selections to very specific tools. The areas I evaluate for commonality are:
- Is it being used by Police or a Military? If it is, there will be ammunition, magazines and parts produced en masse.
- Is it in a caliber that is common? Again, I try and stick to calibers currently in use by the military. That ensures that there will be ample ammunition produced, as well as brass and surplus for the “long haul”.
- Is it something I can/would buy a second copy of? For obvious reasons, having a great variety of firearms is a liability to anyone other than the collector, and it’s far more utilitarian to find one “pattern” and stick to it. This minimizes training, ammunition buying, magazine and spare parts selection and familiarity concerns.
- Capacity – does it hold enough ammunition that you will not be continually reloading, if your life depends on staying ‘in the fight’? When rounds are flying, exhausting your ammunition can (and often has been: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_FBI_Miami_shootout, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Hollywood_shootout) a serious liability, to both you, and anyone else you may be protecting or assisting. While this point has become contentious, it’s important to remember that the enemy will not limit his options based on what he perceives as being 'socially acceptable'.
Safety
Safety is an ongoing topic of concern for both pro and anti-gun folks. I won’t belabor the issue, but I firmly believe that safety is a byproduct of knowledge. You have to know what you’re looking at, how it functions and then how to apply the rules of gun safety.At this time, I’d ask that readers take a look at the Definitive Firearms Thread and familiarize yourself with the safety strategies and practices discussed there. As we develop our base of knowledge, we can begin to develop both safe habits, and apply safe handling principles. I encourage this method, because as a component of your training at a later time, “dry practice” will become a part of how we develop our consistent trigger pull, reduce flinch and practice our malfunction drills and reloading procedures.
Let’s take a look at the three cardinal rules of firearms safety before we go any further:- Handle every gun as if is loaded.
- Know what’s in front of your muzzle (barrel) at all times.
- Keep your finger off the trigger until you’re ready to fire.
There are more complicated sets of rules out there, but the great thing about these basic rules is this: If you break one, while following the other two, no harm will occur.Anytime you receive a weapon – the first thing you should do is verify its status as “clear” – meaning there is no ammunition in it if you do not want there to be, and there is if you do.
To verify that the weapon is empty, the following steps should be followed:- Remove the magazine, or open the cylinder. If it’s a manual rifle or shotgun, physically check to be sure the internal magazine has been emptied, or no shells are in the magazine tube.
- If the weapon is an autoloader, pull the bolt to the rear, and visually inspect the chamber. “Triple check”. It never hurts to be extra safe, and this is a good habit to get in to before you learn to dry practice.
- Separate the magazine or ammunition, and close the bolt, cylinder or release the slide.
To verify that the weapon is empty, the following steps should be followed:
Training
I won’t belabor this point too heavily here, but I will touch on it in the upcoming addition to the WSID Series “Understanding Emergencies”.With that said regardless of what you choose, you are the one ultimately responsible for the safe and effective use of a firearm. While many levels of training exist (far superior training, in fact, to what most Police or Military members receive) to match your level of commitment, it’s imperative that you at least understand the basic rules of safety, and become familiar with the weapon you decide to purchase.
If you can’t automatically identify several key features:
- Barrel
- Trigger
- Safety or de-cocker
- Cylinder/Slide/Bolt
- Chamber
- Magazine Release
- Cylinder/slide release button or lever
- Frame/Lower receiver/Stock
- Single Action, Double Action or SA/DA
- Blowback, revolving, gas impingement, piston driven, pump, bolt or lever action or semi-automatic.
It’s my sincerest hope that this is a helpful addition to the WSID series, and I’d be glad to hear any feedback, comments or field any questions anyone may have regarding purchasing a firearm.
Cheers!
Aaron
This What Should I Do? blog series is intended to surface knowledge and perspective useful to preparing for a future defined by Peak Oil. The content is written by ChrisMartenson.com readers and is based in their own experiences in putting into practice many of the ideas exchanged on this site. If there are topics you'd like to see featured here, or if you have interest in contributing a post in a relevant area of your expertise, please indicate so in our What Should I Do? series feedback forum.
If you have not yet seen the other articles in this series, you can find them here:
- The Basics of Growing Garlic (karenbyler)
- Using & About Oxygen Absorbers (deniskorn)
- Vermiculture: Getting down and dirty with worms (jasonw)
- Starting your investment plan (Travlin)
- Getting In Shape: The New Me (cmartenson)
- Slow Money: Getting the “Numb” Out of Numbers (woodytasch)
- Preserving Meat By Curing and Smoking (DanJab)
- Raising Children in Changing Times (DianneM)
- Argentina: A Case Study in How An Economy Collapses (FerFAL)
- Wood Gasification: An Intriguing Emergency Fuel Source (Dutch John)
- Whole Food Eating (Teresa Piro)
- The Case for Small Scale Biofuels (Ready)
- Preparing for Economic Collapse (FerFAL)
- Buying a House in Today's Market (Patrick Killelea)
- How To Increase The Energy Efficiency of Your Existing Home (zeroenergy21)
- Fortifying Yourself And Your Home Against Crime (thc0655)
- Food Storage Made Easy (Adam)
- Quick Primer on Contamination Control Measures (Dogs_In_A_Pile)
- Practical Survival Skills 101 - Understanding Emergencies (Aaron Moyer)
- How to Explain the Current Economic Situation to Friends & Family (rhare)
- Managing Pain Without Meds (JAG)
- Protecting Yourself Against Crime and Violence (thc0655)
- Cultivating Inner Resilience in the Face of Crisis (suziegruber)
- Problem Solving: Improvise, Adapt, Overcome (Mooselick7)
- Extending the Harvest in Your Home Garden (Woodman)
- Practical Survival Skills 101 - Obtaining Shelter (Aaron Moyer)
- Woodworking (bklement)
- Making Soap (maceves)
- Small-Scale Beekeeping (apismellifera)
- Practical Survival Skills 101 - Water (Aaron Moyer)
- Prepping on a Shoestring (Amanda)
- Making the Urban-to-Rural Transition (joemanc)
- Dealing With a Reluctant Partner (Becca Martenson)
- Raising Your Own Chickens (Woodman)
- Practical Survival Skills 101 - Fire Starting (Aaron Moyer)
- A Quiet Revolution in Bicycles: Recapturing a Role as Utilitarian People-Movers - Part 2 (Cycle9)
- A Quiet Revolution in Bicycles: Recapturing a Role as Utilitarian People-Movers - Part 1 (Cycle9)
- The Keys to Transitioning Healthcare: Empowerment, Education, & Prevention (suziegruber)
- Installing A Solar Energy System (rhare)
- The Essential Gardening and Food Resilience Library (Old Hippie)
- Creating Healthy Snacks from Your Garden (EndGamePlayer)
- Peak Certainty, Food Resilience, and Aquaponics (Farmer Brown)
- A Case Study in Creating Community (SagerXX)
This series is a companion to this site's free What Should I Do? Guide, which provides guidance from Chris and the ChrisMartenson.com staff on specific strategies, products, and services that individuals should consider in their preparations.
__________________ "Subject to no government but that of my own conscience."
Thursday, November 17, 2011
"The Entire System Has Been Utterly Destroyed By The MF Global Collapse" - Presenting The First MF Global Casualty
Presented without comment, merely to confirm that the market as we know it, no longer exists.
BCM Has Ceased Operations (source) http://barnhardt.biz/
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - November 17, AD 2011 10:27 AM MST
Dear Clients, Industry Colleagues and Friends of Barnhardt Capital Management,
It is with regret and unflinching moral certainty that I announce that Barnhardt Capital Management has ceased operations. After six years of operating as an independent introducing brokerage, and eight years of employment as a broker before that, I found myself, this morning, for the first time since I was 20 years old, watching the futures and options markets open not as a participant, but as a mere spectator.
The reason for my decision to pull the plug was excruciatingly simple: I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets – because they are not. And this goes not just for my clients, but for every futures and options account in the United States. The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse. Given this sad reality, I could not in good conscience take one more step as a commodity broker, soliciting trades that I knew were unsafe or holding funds that I knew to be in jeopardy.
The futures markets are very highly-leveraged and thus require an exceptionally firm base upon which to function. That base was the sacrosanct segregation of customer funds from clearing firm capital, with additional emergency financial backing provided by the exchanges themselves. Up until a few weeks ago, that base existed, and had worked flawlessly. Firms came and went, with some imploding in spectacular fashion. Whenever a firm failure happened, the customer funds were intact and the exchanges would step in to backstop everything and keep customers 100% liquid – even as their clearing firm collapsed and was quickly replaced by another firm within the system.
Everything changed just a few short weeks ago. A firm, led by a crony of the Obama regime, stole all of the non-margined cash held by customers of his firm. Let’s not sugar-coat this or make this crime seem “complex” and “abstract” by drowning ourselves in six-dollar words and uber-technical jargon. Jon Corzine STOLE the customer cash at MF Global. Knowing Jon Corzine, and knowing the abject lawlessness and contempt for humanity of the Marxist Obama regime and its cronies, this is not really a surprise. What was a surprise was the reaction of the exchanges and regulators. Their reaction has been to take a bad situation and make it orders of magnitude worse. Specifically, they froze customers out of their accounts WHILE THE MARKETS CONTINUED TO TRADE, refusing to even allow them to liquidate. This is unfathomable. The risk exposure precedent that has been set is completely intolerable and has destroyed the entire industry paradigm. No informed person can continue to engage these markets, and no moral person can continue to broker or facilitate customer engagement in what is now a massive game of Russian Roulette.
I have learned over the last week that MF Global is almost certainly the mere tip of the iceberg. There is massive industry-wide exposure to European sovereign junk debt. While other firms may not be as heavily leveraged as Corzine had MFG leveraged, and it is now thought that MFG’s leverage may have been in excess of 100:1, they are still suicidally leveraged and will likely stand massive, unmeetable collateral calls in the coming days and weeks as Europe inevitably collapses. I now suspect that the reason the Chicago Mercantile Exchange did not immediately step in to backstop the MFG implosion was because they knew and know that if they backstopped MFG, they would then be expected to backstop all of the other firms in the system when the failures began to cascade – and there simply isn’t that much money in the entire system. In short, the problem is a SYSTEMIC problem, not merely isolated to one firm.
Perhaps the most ominous dynamic that I have yet heard of in regards to this mess is that of the risk of potential CLAWBACK actions. For those who do not know, “clawback” is the process by which a bankruptcy trustee is legally permitted to re-seize assets that left a bankrupt entity in the time period immediately preceding the entity’s collapse. So, using the MF Global customers as an example, any funds that were withdrawn from MFG accounts in the run-up to the collapse, either because of suspicions the customer may have had about MFG from, say, watching the company’s bond yields rise sharply, or from purely organic day-to-day withdrawls, the bankruptcy trustee COULD initiate action to “clawback” those funds. As a hedge broker, this makes my blood run cold. Generally, as the markets move in favor of a hedge position and equity builds in a client’s account, that excess equity is sent back to the customer who then uses that equity to offset cash market transactions OR to pay down a revolving line of credit. Even the possibility that a customer could be penalized and additionally raped AGAIN via a clawback action after already having their customer funds stolen is simply villainous. While there has been no open indication of clawback actions being initiated by the MF Global trustee, I have been told that it is a possibility.
And so, to the very unpleasant crux of the matter. The futures and options markets are no longer viable. It is my recommendation that ALL customers withdraw from all of the markets as soon as possible so that they have the best chance of protecting themselves and their equity. The system is no longer functioning with integrity and is suicidally risk-laden. The rule of law is non-existent, instead replaced with godless, criminal political cronyism.
Remember, derivatives contracts are NOT NECESSARY in the commodities markets. The cash commodity itself is the underlying reality and is not dependent on the futures or options markets. Many people seem to have gotten that backwards over the past decades. From Abel the animal husbandman up until the year 1964, there were no cattle futures contracts at all, and no options contracts until 1984, and yet the cash cattle markets got along just fine.
Finally, I will not, under any circumstance, consider reforming and re-opening Barnhardt Capital Management, or any other iteration of a brokerage business, until Barack Obama has been removed from office AND the government of the United States has been sufficiently reformed and repopulated so as to engender my total and complete confidence in the government, its adherence to and enforcement of the rule of law, and in its competent and just regulatory oversight of any commodities markets that may reform. So long as the government remains criminal, it would serve no purpose whatsoever to attempt to rebuild the futures industry or my firm, because in a lawless environment, the same thievery and fraud would simply happen again, and the criminals would go unpunished, sheltered by the criminal oligarchy.
To my clients, who literally TO THE MAN agreed with my assessment of the situation, and were relieved to be exiting the markets, and many whom I now suspect stayed in the markets as long as they did only out of personal loyalty to me, I can only say thank you for the honor and pleasure of serving you over these last years, with some of my clients having been with me for over twelve years. I will continue to blog at Barnhardt.biz, which will be subtly re-skinned soon, and will continue my cattle marketing consultation business.
I will still be here in the office, answering my phones, with the same phone numbers. Alas, my retirement came a few years earlier than I had anticipated, but there was no possible way to continue given the inevitability of the collapse of the global financial markets, the overthrow of our government, and the resulting collapse in the rule of law.
As for me, I can only echo the words of David:
“This is the Lord’s doing; and it is wonderful in our eyes.”
With Best Regards-
Ann Barnhardt
Sheriff Threatens Feds With SWAT Team ~ Grass Roots Take Charge!
http://politicalvelcraft.org/2011/11/14/u-s-sheriffs-rise-up-against-federal-government-sheriff-threatens-feds-with-swat-team/
U.S. Sheriffs Rise Up Against Federal Government: Sheriff Threatens Feds With SWAT Team ~ Grass Roots Take Charge!
November 14, 2011 
148 Comments 
Sheriff Threatens Feds With SWAT Team
As more people became dissatisfied with federal government controls and land grabs, it was inevitable that local law enforcement would eventually see the bigger picture. At the northern California fairgrounds of Yreka last month, seven California sheriffs and another from Oregon gathered with a large group of citizens to say that they are finally going to do something about it.“A giant has been awakened,” said Plumas County, Calif. Sheriff Greg Hagwood, “and they didn’t count on that,” speaking of the federal bureaucracy.
With exposure of the Emergency Management Center in San Luis Obispo a few decades ago, California began to offer the rest of the nation some evidence of the psychological conditioning aimed from the federal level at state, county and city law enforcement.
- Nevada Sheriff Tony DeMeo Stops Federal Government: Feds Engaging In Illegal Confiscation Of Cattle And Water Rights Of County Property Owner.
- Oregon Sheriff Gil Gilbertson Gives Federal Agents The Boot: Feds Have No Jurisdiction!
“I had spent a good part of my life enforcing the penal code, but not understanding my oath of office,” he told the audience. “I was ignorant and naïve, but now I know of the assault against our people by the federal government.”
Host sheriff John Lopey of Siskiyou County, speaking about the federal environmental intervention, said: “I have told federal and state officials over and over that, yes, we want to preserve the environment, but you care more about the fish, frogs, trees and birds than you do about the human race. When will you start to balance your decisions to the needs of the people?” Later he told the audience, “We are right now in a fight for our survival.”
Glenn Palmer, sheriff of Grant County, Oregon, said, “If an elected official has not taken an oath of office, he does not belong in office.”
AFP readers are familiar with the work of former Arizona Sheriff Richard Mack, who has spent the latter half of his life teaching sheriffs that they are the top law enforcement officers in their counties despite continuing federal intervention attempts. The ears that were deaf for so long may finally be starting to hear.
- States Of The Republic: Correcting Their Wayward Child ~ New Laws Constraining The Federal Government.
- Stop Homeland Security Agents Cold In Tennessee: McNairy County Sheriffs!
His plans to take this movement national will be launched at a January meeting, where he anticipates 200 sheriffs will be in attendance.
“The county sheriff is the last line of defense guarding our people’s liberty,” he said.
Retired USAF Col. Richard Niemela of Reston, Va. has been exposing the federal monster for years.
He told AFP: “It’s the surreptitious domination by international globalists insidiously using unauthorized and illegal tactics to render null and void those historic and unique powers of the sheriff.”
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