FOX News Creates Fraudulent Video to Discredit Ron Paul

Comment from Francis Soyer:


This posting here is one of the more important postings this reader has come accross this year. It is a smoking gun, un refutable smoking gun piece of evidence of why all readers of this posts and others should turn off their TV if they are seeking any form of news. Also throw away your news papers, most magazines and other forms of Journalism you can think of. It is all crap and lies. The majority of news company's are owned by a handful of companies that have agendas to serve, opinions to manipulate to esnure the survival of their advertising constituents. Below is a clear and un mistakable example of why not to listen to FOX, CNBC, MSN, YAHOO, Wall Street Journal, NY Times, The Globe, Bloomberg News, NBC, CBS, ABC, Time Warner, Jim Cramer, and yes even CNN. These are ALL corporate owned media companies who could care less about real journalism. What they do care about: Serve the financial agenda of their shareholders (owners) e.g. members of the richest .01% of the Global population that own 75% of the planets wealth. What is it that they fear? They fear change plain and simple. Change that could cause them to lose control over others by means of wealth -master (those who own) and slave (those who must do what those who own to survive) relationship. Ron Paul is one of those few who have dared to speak out against this relationship in man and how we treat eachother. The only other two men of noteworthy attempt to challenge this relationship where Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy. We all know what happened to them, so lets all put Ron Paul into our thoughts for safety and success and may God Bless.

FOX News Creates Fraudulent Video to Discredit Ron Paul


Submitted by EB on 02/17/2011 08:27 -0500
Fox NewsRon Paul
As Paul Joseph Watson of PrisonPlanet writes:
In a shocking act of mass public deception, Fox News attempted to skew Ron Paul’s 2011 CPAC straw poll win by representing it with footage from the previous year’s CPAC event, at which Mitt Romney supporters had loudly booed the result, another example of the continuing dirty tricks campaign being waged against Paul by the establishment media.

Congressman Paul replicated his 2010 victory over Mitt Romney by defeating the former Governor of Massachusetts for a second consecutive year at the annual CPAC conference.
However, before anchor Bill Hemmer introduced a segment concerning the story, Fox News played a clip of the 2010 announcement of the poll results, during which Mitt Romney supporters had loudly booed Ron Paul’s victory, passing off last year’s footage as representative of this year’s event.
Hemmer then proceeded to state, “In the end he was the winner, probably not the reaction he was hoping for,” describing the reaction as “mixed applause and boos,” before directly asking Ron Paul if he knew who was booing him.

Robert Wenzel comments:
This is the most incredible act of news media deception ever caught in smoking gun style. This video is a must view, and notice how the FOX anchors set up the lie and Bill Hemmer, the anchor interviewing Congressman Paul, brings the LIE right into the interview, in a further attempt to dilute Paul's victory.
These boys are scared, really scared. Get this video clip out to everyone and let people know what is going on.
Did FOX News [sic] and Bill Hemmer just have their very own CBS/Dan Rather moment?
Update per Mediaite (ht Cleve Meater):
...Fox News claims it was completely accidental. Mediaite received the following statementfrom Senior Vice President of News Michael Clemente:
“We made a mistake with some of the video we aired, and plan on issuing a correction onAmerica’s Newsroom tomorrow morning explaining exactly what happened.”

It's Official: Iran Says It Will Send 2 Warships Through Suez Canal

It's Official: Iran Says It Will Send 2 Warships Through Suez Canal


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/17/2011 08:45 -0500
After nothing happened last night, following Egypt's statement that it had not received a request to allow Iranian warships through the canal, PressTV has just announced that an Iran Navy official says the 2 warships are in fact on their way to the Canal and will pass shortly. Per Reuters, "the Iran state TV says Egypt sees nothing wrong with passage of Iranian warships through Suez Canal." The vessels in question are the Alvand frigate and the Kharg, a supply vessel.
Photo of the Alvand:

Look for kneejerk reaction in crude.
Some more perspectives from Information Dissemination:
The two Iranian ships are the corvette Alvand and supply ship Kharg, both pictured in this blog post. The Alvand is the flagship of the Iranian Navy. Displacing around 1,500 tons, the ship comes armed with 4 C-802 anti-ship missiles, a 4.5in gun, torpedo launchers, and various smaller machine guns and mortars. The US Navy has seen this class of ship before, in battle. During Operation Preying Mantis in 1988, the Iranian corvette Sabalan was left paralyzed and on fire from a 500 lb bomb from an A-6, while another pair of A-6s crippled the Sahand where she later sunk southwest of Larak Island following a Harpoon strike from the USS Joseph Strauss (DDG-16). For the sake of symmetry, I'll note the A-6s involved in Operation Preying Mantis that slapped around the sister ships of Alvand were from the VA-95 "Green Lizards" and flown off none other than the USS Enterprise (CVN 65).
The Iranian flagship Alvand is not a naval threat to anyone in the region, and is not why Israel is raising concern. The ship has terrible anti-air capabilities that are no match against the capabilities of the Egyptian Air Force, the Royal Saudi Air Force, the Israeli Air Force, or Carrier Air Wing One on the USS Enterprise (CVN 65). While the media portrayal of the Iranian Navy near the Suez is one of distressing concern, the reality is that corvette represents the biggest regional target at sea for thousands of nautical miles. The media may describe the presence of the Iranian corvette in the context of doubt, fear, and concern; but given Israel's outrage and tendency to be trigger happy - allow me to suggest the scariest place to be in the Red Sea today is anywhere near that ship. I note the irony between how the news narrative represents a complete disconnect between perception and reality.
Speaking of Israeli concern, assuming it is legitimate and not parochial; it likely has to do with the supply ship Kharg and not the corvette Alvand.
The supply ship Kharg is much more interesting. The Kharg is the largest ship in the Iranian Navy displacing around 33,000 tons and is a modified Olwen class fast fleet tanker. This is a big ship, and with the current tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel is likely very concerned about what the ship is carrying. As a Navy ship rather than a commercial ship, the ship will not be searched for cargo so the concern by the Israeli's is that the ship could carry weapons to Syria where weapons can be unloaded and sent to Lebanon. There are rumors that go back several years that the Kharg has been often been observed in the Gulf of Aden delivering weapons from Iran to destinations like Eritrea and the Sudan.
If you follow the Wikileaks cables you will note that this known arms smuggling connection between Iran and Eritrea was how the Government of Yemen believed the Houthis were being armed, although the cables actually reveal that is not how the Houthis are being armed based on different intelligence.
Are the Israeli's being paranoid? Probably not. The Kharg is the best choice of vessel to move substantial arms from Iran to Hezbollah quickly and without harassment. It is around 2,150nm from Bandar Abbas, Iran to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia - where these Iranian ships made port last week. While I understand that a little corvette might have to make stops every few thousand nautical miles - even a corvette with the range of the Alvand - why does a fast fleet tanker like Kharg need a fill up after only a few thousand miles travel?
Probably because the tanker is carrying more than fuel.
What To Do
The Israeli's can get trigger happy in a hurry, so I have no idea what they will do. However, I noted with interest that PJ Crowley described the US position on the presence of the Iranian ships approaching the Suez Canal as one of "curiosity." OK, I buy that, I'm certainly curious as well. But the real question is what if anything should the United States do?
Well, if you are the US it depends if you think the Israel will attack the ships. If you do think Israel is going to get trigger happy, we should do nothing. However, if the US does not believe the Israeli's are going to attack the Iranian ships, this is what I believe the US should do.
It is more than a little disturbing to me that a ~1,500 ton Iranian corvette built in 1971 with 4 ASMs and no air defenses escorted by an old oil tanker can send the price of US oil up 1.8% for simply sailing on the ocean. Iran just significantly shifted an economic market in the US with a piece of shit corvette even though the USS Enterprise (CVN 65) was literally right there. Think about that a second...
An increase of 1.8% comes to $.67 per bbl of oil, and the United States uses 21,000,000 bbls of oil per day. That means that through soft power presence alone the Iranian Navy flagship, which by every modern naval standard is nothing more than a ~1,500 ton unrated corvette with a questionably trained crew and supported an old tanker, and yet the Iranian Navy just sent a $14 million shiver down the spine of the energy economy of the United States. To add insult to injury, that bump in oil cost could potentially sustain itself for several days while the Iranian Navy operates in that region.
How do we reconcile the ability of an Iranian corvette half way around the world to influence a US economic market with the rhetoric by the United States Navy leadership who attempts to link US naval power with US economy? How can observers not draw the conclusion that investors in this country have lost all association with American naval power and the sustainability of regional peace when an Iranian corvette can make this kind of economic impact while operating right next to a US aircraft carrier strike group? Investors in the US oil futures market must not even associate US naval power as a deterrent to economic disruption when oil shoots up 1.8% based on presence alone, and in this case the US naval power present is a carrier strike group. Is this a matter of stupidity or ignorance on the part of the investors, or does this say something about the US Navy's ability to articulate it's own value to the nation?
So, clearly the Navy has a communication problem... How can the US Navy address this? Well, if I was given 5-star rank for a day I would sail my Arleigh Burke class destroyer along side the Iranian Navy flagship for a "wave and hello" and take a photograph of the two ships side by side while underway. I realize that strategic communication is a forgotten, and perhaps lost art in the US Navy, but if you put a photograph on Navy.mil with the two warships in near proximity that illustrates the sheer size difference between the flagship of the Iranian Navy and a US Navy Arleigh Burke class destroyer, I will predict that the unofficial PASSEX is worth several thousand words to a great many reporters and Americans while also being a photograph worth about $14 million in savings to the US energy economy a day.

Frontrunning: February 16

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2011 08:29 -0500
•From Prison, Madoff Says Banks ‘Had to Know’ of Fraud (NYT)

•Rising Chinese wages pose relocation risk (FT)

•Bahrain protesters take over key junction (FT)

•Fisher Says He May Prefer Treasury Sales as First Step for Fed Tightening (Bloomberg)

•Banks Push Home Buyers to Put Down More Cash (WSJ)

•Borders Files Bankruptcy as Expense Cuts Don't Stem Losses (Bloomberg)

•China's farm produce prices down last week (ChinaDaily) - weekly food prices are now Headline news

•Brazil Dismisses Plans to Pressure China on Yuan (WSJ)

•All You Need to Know About Why Things Fell Apart: Michael Lewis (Bloomberg)

Backward Silver & Forward Weather

Backward Silver & Forward Weather


By Bruce Krasting

Created 02/15/2011 - 19:04
BACKWARD
To make a point on silver I show the spot and forward swap prices for AUDUSD.

Now look at 1 year Treasuries and the same maturity for Australian federal paper.
Put it together. The interest differential is 4.61% in favor of Australia. Note the swaps are at a discount, meaning the left side (bid) is lower than the right side (offer). The forward Aussie discount is equal to the interest differential. Take the mid point of the swap (.0453) and divide it by the spot (.9965) and you get 4.50%. (the 11bp is spreads, ‘noise’ and basis risk differentials.)
Conclusion you can take to the bank: The forward price is equal to the interest differential. Simple.
Okay, with that in mind look at silver today. The futures price is trading to a discount to the cash price. Go back to my example for the AUDUSD. For silver to be backward it MUST mean that the cost to borrow silver is GREATER than the cost to borrow dollars. This is one of those ‘red flags’.
My conclusion? There is a shortage of the physical metal. Blame it on whoever you like. The Mint, the JP Morg, underwater producers. There are dozens of suspects to consider. Either way, it’s bullish for the price.

FORWARD

There is some fairly conclusive information that short-term weather patterns are changing. The evidence is in the most recent ENSO numbers. The extreme La Nina conditions that have brought so much pain to Australia (and other parts of the globe) are in the process of abating.
Consider first this chart that tracks the La Nina El Nino cycle. We have moved off the trough set in December. (From NOAA web site [4])
The updated (December-January) MEI value has strengthened slightly to -1.62 standard deviations after almost dropping below -2 standard deviations in August-September.
The -1.62 still represents a strong La Nina. A closer look at conditions in the four regions that make up the index shows what's going on:
This shows the cumulative change in conditions. We have backed off the extreme.
Where are we headed is the question. There are many computers looking at this and many possible outcomes. A chart of the various forecasts:

Note that the projections broadly point to a reduction of the current conditions. Some of the models are even pointing to a reversion to El Nino status by the end of the summer.
Should a +.05 /+1.0 ENSO (modest El Nino) be the reality this fall it would create conditions not unlike 2004 -2005. Those two years were the biggest hurricane years in the past 25.
Quite a number of folks have suggested to me that ENSO is just part of the picture and I over emphasize its importance in short-term weather patterns. Fair enough. Yet I keep getting hit on the head with evidence that confirms to me that this cycle is driving most of the short-term results. Consider what has happened in Australia over the past six months. They got rain like rarely before seen. What was happening to La Nina conditions that most affect their weather (Nino 3.4)? This from NOAA:


After a drop to +2 in June, July rebounded to +20.5, followed by values between +16 (November) and +27 (December), including +20 in January 2011. The last time that this index showed higher values for the average of any six months was during the same half-year in 1917(!), so any SOI-based classification would classify this event as one the second-strongest event of the last century
The 100-year La Nina was the cause of the 100-year rainfall. For me the cause and effect is too clear to miss. The questions to ask are, a) why are we seeing the extremes? and b) why is the life of the cycle(s) getting shorter and shorter? To my knowledge the folks with the computers haven’t figured that out yet.

World Situation

World Situation


I will not update the ‘World Situation’ anymore.
The coming crisis will strike people on all levels of life.
The ‘Greatest Depression’ is well on its way.
The greatest economic collapse in history is coming.
The financial/economic crisis has only just begun.
“This coming crisis is bigger than the world has ever experienced” – Ron Paul

1. Economy, 2. Politics, 3. Environment, 4. Health:

1. Economy:

The US Dollar is being devaluated and destroyed intentionally by the FED and other Players.

They are telling you that they are protecting the value of the Dollar but what they do is cause Inflation by creating money out of thin air.

“Inflation is a taxation on monetary assets”, as my Prof. at University appropriately put it.
The Collapsing Dollar – Authorities lose patience
Jim Rogers: Avoid The Dollar At All Costs
The US are already in a Recession even if Bernanke is still warning of a possible Recession.
The Recession will turn into a Depression.
Central bank body warns of Great Depression
Total Notional Value Of Derivatives Outstanding Surpasses One Quadrillion
CNN Warns Americans A New Great Depression Is Coming
USA 2008: The Great Depression
Fed: Severe Downturn Possible
The Great Depression of the 2010s
The Stock Market and the Monetary System are on the verge of collapse!!!!
JPMorgan Chase CEO: Recession Just Beginning
“We’re in a crash,”…
There will be a complete, controlled Meltdown of Americas Economy.
The Germans fear that meltdown as well
The subprime crisis has just started and it’s far from being over and there is chaos on Wallstreet.
Global credit losses will reach $1.2 trillion.
US banks fear $5 trillion balance impact
There are markets I haven’t even heard of and they are big. This is insane.
George Soros: “I consider this the biggest financial crisis of my lifetime.” A “superbubble” that has been swelling for a quarter of a century is finally bursting.”
Bailing Out Banks – Congressman Ron Paul
Morgan Stanley warns of ‘catastrophic event’ as ECB fights Federal Reserve
Marc Faber: ‘Misleading’ Fed Should Let Banks Fail
The cost of living is skyrocketing.

Many people have lost lost their homes and many more will have to go through that sad experience.
U.S. Foreclosures Jump 57% as Homeowners Walk Away
Federal Reserve: Homeowner Equity Falls Below 50%
Growing Deficits Threaten Pensions
The price of oil will soon rise 200-500%.Oil to hit $200 a barrel, says ace Indian analyst (Gas prices are rising too.)
Iran dumps U.S. dollars in oil transactions
Governments across the developing world are scrambling to boost farm imports and restrict exports in an attempt to forestall rising food prices and social unrest.
The food prices are soaring. There are already food riots. (Rice: about 30% up in just one month!)

And this will get much worse.

The middle class is being destroyed.

People will more and more live in fear and in survial mode and this is intentionally created as well.
Individual bankruptcies are rising dramatically.
28 million will receive food stamps in the coming year in the US.
Tent Cities Popping Up In California
One Nevada businessman may have found a way to bring the system crashing down — he has begun paying employees in those $50 Gold Eagle coins, making their annual salaries well below the threshold for even having to file tax returns. So far, the IRS is helpless to stop it.
The Pentagon Strangles Our Economy: Why the U.S. Has Gone Broke
Senator Byron Dorgan – Out of Control Fraud
Hyperinflationary Depression
Credit Crisis Turning into Credit Armageddon
The REAL cost of inflation
Energy Advisor Warns of $12-15-a-Gallon Gas
CBS: Report predicts $7/gallon gas 6/27/08
OPEC Leader Khelil Says Dollar Will Drive Oil to $170
Food stamp use hits record
Fed’s Direct Loans to Banks Climb to Record Level
JPMorgan Admits Receiving Multi-Billion Dollar Gift From the Fed
America’s infrastructure is crumbling
Federal regulators close Arkansas bank ANB Financial
Fed `Rogue Operation’ Spurs Further Bailout Calls
U.S. risks stagflation, says BIS chief
U.S. Credit Card Debt Soars to Unprecedented Heights
Banks’ credit crisis solutions have echoes of 1929 Depression
Wealthy Investors Shift Funds From Global Banks to Reduce Risks
US banks likely to fail as bad loans soar
Seniors Increasingly Facing Bankruptcy

RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
California Home Foreclosures Skyrocket by Over 400 Percent
US trade deficit jumps to 60.9 billion dollars
The Derivatives Market is Unwinding!
This Recession, It’s Just Beginning
Ron Paul: This coming crisis is bigger than the world has ever experienced
US: Big Trouble for General Motors, Crysler and Ford
Dow suffers worst 1st half since ‘70
IMF orders X-ray of the entire US financial system
The Dow-Crash, The Dollar, Gold, and WAR!
As Bill Evolves, Mortgage Debt Is Snowballing
Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve’s credibility crumbles
Fortis Bank Predicts US Financial Market Meltdown Within Weeks
City Pension Funds Lose Billions
Credit crunch forcing US middle classes to live in their cars
America’s Aviation System About To Collapse
The Economy Has Hit The Wall: Oil above $ 140, Consumer Confidence Falls, Retail Sales Slump
American Express: The Economy is Worsening
And this is not only seen in the US, it’s everywhere you look. The US are just a very good “bad example”.
Emerging markets face inflation meltdown
Bank bail-outs to be kept secret
Soldiers need loans to eat, report reveals
As China’s inflation soars, world fears knock-on effects
Russia quietly prepares to switch some oil trading from dollars to rubles
Iran shifts oil sales away from dollar

Russia blames U.S. for global financial crisis
Traders predict house prices will fall by 50% in four years
ECB raises key rate to 4.25%
GLOBAL ECONOMY – Factories hit worldwide as commodity prices soar
2. Politics:

Some News before we go into detail:

Ron Paul on Iran and Energy June 26, 2008
The US are broke, yet the government spends $ 1,6 Trillion on weapons.
You can’t trust the US government (actually any government in the world). There is so much that they haven’t told you. They are committing treason daily.
PENTAGON CAMPAIGN: Retired officers have been used to shape terrorism coverage from inside the TV and radio networks
US gave $300m arms contract to 22-year-old with criminal record
Canadian Troops To Patrol US Cities As Food Riots Feared
Homeland Security: Operation Endgame
Pentagon Releases Propaganda Documents
Bush misused Iraq intelligence: Senate report
Newest McCain official: President has “near dictatorial powers”
What’s Going on?
Do you think the US want to end the war?:

Are You Prepared For A Hundred Years War On Terror?

Senator and Presidential candidate John McCain said that it would be fine with him if the military stayed in Iraq for a hundred years.
Secret plans for US troops to stay in Iraq
Those behind the scenes want to create World War III and to start World War III they are planning to attack Iran:
The US are preparing for an attack on Iran and four nuclear submarines are heading for the Gulf.

Another source that reconfirms that the US have brought in nuclear submarines.

The fleet in the Persian Gulf is armed with nuclear weapons and cruise missiles and carries hundreds of aircraft and rapid reaction forces.
When the US attack Iran other nations will not just watch and stand by.

Those behind the scenes want to turn this into a religious war as well.

The Christian Right brought Bush to power and this is their mentality:

McCain advisor: Destroy Islam, McCain Backer Hagee Said Hitler Was Fulfilling God’s Will (AUDIO)
Believe it or not but they believe that Jesus comes back when they create Armageddon. How stupid can you get?
There are some equal idiots believing that they get 72 virgins from Allah when they are killing themselves through suicide bombings.
Ron Paul: Nancy Pelosi pulled Iran bill on orders of Israel
Ex-weapons inspector says Iran not pursuing nukes, but U.S. will attack before ‘09
Petraeus Testimony Next Week Will Signal Iran Attack
British fear US commander is beating the drum for Iran strikes
Source: U.S. Strike on Iran Nearing
Joint Chiefs of Staff: US prepping military options against Iran
Middle East: Beating the Drums of War
United States is drawing up plans to strike on Iranian insurgency camp
NATIONAL DRILL: U.S. Tests Response To Set of Calamities
Senate report exposes key role of the Israel lobby in fomenting war with Iran
US: Oil blockade constitutes an act of war
Top US commander briefed on IDF’s four-front strategy in potential Iran war context
America Is the Rogue Nation
Actually everybody is already preparing for war:

Right after Cheney has visited Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia is preparing to counter any ‘radioactive hazards’ which may result from a US strike on Iran’s nuclear plants.
Syria has called up its reservists, because if Iran attacks Israel with what is left after it got attacked by the US, then Israel being vulnerable has the great idea to attack everybody that they consider a threat, so that Israels enemies cannot take advantage of the situation. HELLO!!!
Syria says ready in case of US military action
Israel, U.S. commanders test ‘extreme’ scenarios in joint drill
Israel’s Defense Minister authorizes nationwide emergency drill also simulating a chemical missile attack.
Brown publishes first national security strategy
Israel preparing to bomb Iran N-sites
Israel launches ‘Iran Command’ for war
Israeli Ministers Mull Plans for Military Strike against Iran
Israel to attack Iran unless enrichment stops: minister
Joschka Fischer: US, Israel will attack Iran
Israel May Attack Iran, Pentagon Official Tells ABC
Iran ready to strike at Israel’s nuclear heart
How will things unfold? Let’s go back to 9/11. (Even if you are bored with it, it’s important.):
9/11 was an inside job, an catalyst event that was created to secure the oil in Iraq, take away your civil liberties, completely undermine your constitutional rights, destroy the middle class in the US and accelerate the New World Order.
USA Military Officers Challenge Official Account of September 11
Former Governor Jesse Ventura says that the WTC collapse was a controlled demolition.
Watch the movie that convinced Former Governor Jesse Ventura:

Loose Change 2nd Edition. Actor Charlie Sheen has also been promoting that film.

9/11 False Flag
There are many great documentaries on 9/11.
It’s all about Problem-Reaction-Solution:

They created the problem (9/11).

The people reacted as expected (allowing to trade in freedom for security).

They then present the solution they wanted to implement in the first place (Patriot Act, Homeland Security, FEMA, Presidential Directive 51).

There are many that believe that the President should be above the law and through Presidential Directive 51 he is above any law.
Please read surviving-martial-law.pdf. For me this was a very important read because it verified what I already knew about World War III and it also answered some questions I had.
And now that everything is in place there will be another catalyst event – Rumsfeld: Why not another 9/11? – of much bigger proportions than 9/11 and nobody will dare to say that this is an inside job because already now if you doubt the official version of 9/11 you are called a terrorist. (Did you know that actor Charlie Sheen is a terrorist? Thats were doubt can get you.)
After the next terrorist attack (inside job) President Bush will declare Martial Law and then he holds all power in his hands alone. He has to answer to no-one anymore. Presidential Directive 51 overrides everything. Similar power had Adolf Hitler, the Gestapo and Waffen-SS are also in place already. And then the US will attack Iran.
Another similarity between Nazi Germany and the US is, that the US are so broke that the only thing that can keep the economy and the government up is starting a war with Iran (or the US have to undergo a looong depression).

The situation the US are in right now is so amazing similar to the situation in Nazi Germany before it started World War II.
So 9/11 can be compared with the Reichstag fire which was a pivotal event in the establishment of Nazi Germany

and the next terrorist attack (inside job) will be the beginning of World War III.
The US will blame Iran for the attack, attack Iran and World War III has begun.
IF you think that the comparisison between Nazi Germany and the US is farfetched then read first the following excerpts and then the full article from the The Canadian National Newspaper:
“More than 1,820 tons (3-million, 640 thousand pounds) of radioactive nuclear waste uranium were exploded into Iraq alone in the form of armour piercing rounds and bunker busters, representing the worlds worst man made ecological disaster ever. Ironically, the only Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) that Americans soldiers have found in Iraq are “Made in America”.

U.S. investigative researchers have discovered an official U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs official, but not well publicized count, of 73,846 U.S. soldiers who have perished as an apparent result of Depleted Uranium based bio-chemical warfare exposure. This exceeds an estimate of 58,000 U.S. soldiers who had been killed in relation to the Vietnam War.
Well over 200,000 American soldiers could be killed by 2010, as a result of the after effects of exposure to U.S. dirty bombs.
Over One million U.S. soldiers have apparently been disabled from Depleted Uranium based biochemical exposure. Over one million Iraqis have also been documented to have been killed.”

IRAQ: ‘Special Weapons’ Have a Fallout on Babies
The Weapon of Mass Destruction Is Cancer
The effect of using depleted uranium will poison Iraq almost forever. So what is the bigger crime what the US are doing to Iraq or what Nazi Germany did to the Jews??? You decide for yourself. The answer is not so important.

It was important to ask the question so that the question can take form in your head.

Have you ever asked yourself how the Germans could be so ignorant and stupid to tolerate such a regime?

Well now you know. The 4. Reich is now here.

Bush Fulfills His Grandfather’s Dream
Police State & Surveillance & New World Order:
Maybe you are already living in a Police State and haven’t noticed it:
Mercenaries Training US Local Police Officers:

Blackwater officials say they are on contract with the Department of Homeland Security and have been given the authority to use lethal force if necessary.

Mercenaries can kill you in the US “if necessary”. I say that the government is preparing for Martial Law.
States Hand Over the DNA of Newborns to DHS:

Unknown to most new parents, or those who became parents in the last ten or so years, DNA of newborns has been harvested, tested, stored and experimented with by all 50 states. And all 50 states are now routinely providing these results to the Homeland Security Department.
Health Council Warns Of Goverment Plan To Claim Ownership Of Every Newborn’s DNA
Met Police officers to be ‘microchipped’ by top brass in Big Brother style tracking scheme

Every single Metropolitan police officer will be ‘microchipped’….

…there will not be any choice about wearing one.

Welcome to the Orwellian State.
Terror law turns thousands of council officials into spies
Police training for Martial Law
FBI & Homeland Security behind martial law exercises in Indianapolis
Police arrest anti-war protester, 80, at mall
Pentagon’s Cyborg Insects All Grown Up
Put young children on DNA list, urge police
The FBI Deputizes Business
Police State 2008

Paul Craig Roberts, a Republican who worked in the Reagan administration, is predicting a 9-11 type of attack before the 2008 elections. If that occurs, Bush can declare martial law and begin arresting those who disagree with his foreign policy (based on Executive Orders recently issued by the Bush Administration that grant the president these powers and more.

Government “Strike Teams” Invade Homes, Harass Flood Victims
Homeland Security invokes nuclear bomb, as Bush quietly links cybersecurity program to NSA:

(Exerpts of the article. The article is a MUST-READ:

“NSA to monitor America’s internet traffic and Google searches for signs of cyber attack”

“The National Security Agency was the key player in President Bush’s warrantless wiretapping program, which was revealed by the New York Times in 2005.”

“..the FBI has engaged in a massive cyber surveillance project that targets terror suspects emails, telephone calls and instant messages – and is able to get some information without a court order.”

“…the ACLU revealed documents showing that the Pentagon was using the FBI to spy on Americans. The military is using the FBI to skirt legal restrictions on domestic surveillance to obtain private records of Americans’ Internet service providers, financial institutions and telephone companies, according to Pentagon documents.”)
They knew: Bush, Cheney authorized ‘harsh interrogations’
Letters give CIA tactics a legal rationale
What’s Up with the Secret Cybersecurity Plans, Senators Ask DHS
Torch Teams: Martial Law in NYC Subways
Germany to Allow Video Surveillance of Private Homes
Ex-NFL Player Tasered For Pointing At Cop
Vancouver transit riders tasered for not paying fares
Justice Dept. Details Program for Collecting DNA From People in Federal Custody
U.S. to Expand Collection Of Crime Suspects’ DNA

Policy Adds People Arrested but Not Convicted
Watching How We Are Watched
Do Americans Care About Big Brother?
Microsoft is developing Big Brother-style software capable of remotely monitoring a worker’s productivity, physical wellbeing and competence.The Times has seen a patent application filed by the company for a computer system that links workers to their computers via wireless sensors that measure their metabolism. The system would allow managers to monitor employees’ performance by measuring their heart rate, body temperature, movement, facial expression and blood pressure. Unions said they fear that employees could be dismissed on the basis of a computer’s assessment of their physiological state.
Doctors and teachers to act as ‘informers’ to target violent offenders BEFORE they strike under controversial new ‘Minority Report’ plans
Pentagon report investigated lasers that put voices in your head
Philly Cops Caught Beating Motorists on Video
Anti-terror laws used to spy on family
High-pitch alarm quietens youths
The Microchip is here !!! – New World Order
Doctors Interrogate Children as Informants on Parents’ Behavior
And they have no problem torturing you.
Parents Must Immunize Their Children Or Go To Jail
Right now, feds might be looking into your finances
National Dragnet Is a Click Away
Will the Militarized Police State Shock You Into Submission?
Children could get a criminal record for holding a can of beer
House agrees to rare secret session on spy bill
Soon U.S. Citizens Must Ask for Government Permission to Fly or Travel
Homeland Ministry Plans Raytheon “Ray Guns” at Airports
FLDS RAID: DANGEROUS LEGAL PRECEDENT
Chicago Police to use M4 carbines
Crime Is Terrorism Believes Sheriff Candidate
Face scans for air passengers to begin in UK this summer
Border Agents Can Search Laptops Without Cause
FBI wants widespread monitoring of illegal Internet activity
FROM DNA OF FAMILY, A TOOL TO MAKE ARRESTS
Secret FEMA Plan To Use Pastors as Pacifiers in Preparation For Martial Law
Massachusetts Police Get Black Uniforms to Instill Sense of Fear
New anti-terrorism rules allow US to spy on British motorists
The Police Disguises Cameras As Fire Hydrants
Pilotless surveillance aircraft are being trialled across Britain
Your Internet provider is watching you
Enhanced Tracking Technology May Propel Adoption of RFID
The Government Is Trying to Wrap Its Mind Around Yours
Ventura Attacks Media for Criticizing Free Speech
Report Details Dissent on Guantánamo Tactics
China: Police State 2.0 is Ready for Export
Lieberman Demands YouTube Censorship
The Last Roundup: MAIN CORE
Why the police now have to ask teenage muggers: ‘Do you eat chips?’

They will also have been trained to ask questions about sexual behaviour, family life, religion, secret fears, weight and “sleeping arrangements” at home.
DHS Wants to Spy Illegally on Americans, Democrats Charge
U.S. citizenship to be checked in event of a storm
Detainees drugged against their will
Air Force Aims for ‘Full Control’ of ‘Any and All’ Computers
Town Halls should map race and religion to identify ‘tension hotspots’, says Hazel Blears
House Approves New Property Seizure Law
Bloomberg’s End-run Around the Second Amendment
Cell Phone Spying: Is Your Life Being Monitored?
Your personal data just got permanently cached at the US border
Spy Grid Part Of Consumer Technology
Martial Law Exercises Continue in Denver
Decider-Commander Goes to Iowa
Dealing With The Truth
I Thought We Didn’t Negotiate With Terrorists
Government Terrorists Terrorize Iowa Homeowners

U.S. School District to Begin Microchipping Students
McCain: Habeas Corpus a Privilege not a Right
FEMA: It’s Not About Floods, It’s About Martial Law
Rumsfeld Personally Approved Brutal Interrogations
Anti-war protesters banned from demonstrating against Bush
Bush pushes biometrics for national security
Spying Telecoms Receive Billions in Government Contracts
Police ‘torture’ videos cause uproar in Mexico
U.S. Military to Patrol Internet
US called Waterboarding a War Crime in 1947
AT&T Whistleblower: Spy Bill Creates Infrastructure for a Police State
Five Myths About the New Wiretapping Law
The Ultimate Goal of the Elite: Total Power
Others:

George Bush, Cheney, Rice, & Rumsfeld caught in Lies
U.S. General: Bush administration tortured detainees, ‘committed war crimes’
The US is not a republic anymore
Ex-Dutch Prime Minister accuses Israel of terrorism
Iraq – Iran – Former CIA Official Exposes Bush Administration Fraud
Kucinich presents Bush impeachment articles
George W. Bush has gotten away with murder
Exposing Pentagon and CIA Corruption
Britain and US ‘complicit in war crimes by Ethiopian military’
Big Brother law stirs outrage in Sweden
‘Peel and Stick’ Tasers Electrify Riot Control
Illegal Alien Raid Part Of FEMA Camp Drill
Pentagon Expands Propaganda Reach With Foreign “News” Websites
Germans said to plan major surveillance centre
German government backs enhanced surveillance
BBC uncovers lost Iraq billions
Narco aggression
Nato admits mistakenly supplying arms and food to Taliban
NKorea threatens South with destruction
Pentagon: $520 Million for Space Weapons Research
Unleashing the Bugs of War
Guantanamo detainees were tortured, medical exams show
U.S. abuse of detainees was routine at Afghanistan bases
The prison industry in the United States: big business or a new form of slavery?
French Government decides to censor the Internet
3. Environment – Earth Changes:
Former Presidents Urge Americans to Prepare for Emergencies:

They can’t tell you what is really coming but they know what is about to happen.
Wildlife populations ‘plummeting’
Migratory bird numbers plummeting, study shows
Return of the Plague
30,000 Scientists Rejecting Global Warming Hypothesis

Global Warming? Not in the Pacific Northwest
The earth changes are coming big time and the elite is preparing for it:
Experts prepare for lunar ‘Doomsday Ark’ an information storage bank on the moon. “Doomsday ark” would provide the tools for the reconstruction of the human race in case civilization is ever destroyed.
‘Doomsday’ seed vault opens in Arctic
Investors Behind Doomsday Seed Vault May Provide Clues to Its Purpose (Part 2)
Hungary to start the world’s first wild seed bank
African seed collection first to arrive in Norway on route to Arctic seed vault
Scientists to capture DNA of trees worldwide for database
Why are they doing all of this NOW??? Is that a coincidence??? No it isn’t.

The elite has for themselves massive undergrounds and enormous food and water supplies.
Water:
Actually this should cause a global outrage and a revolution: UN rejects water as basic human right

Canada’s water crisis ‘escalating’
Barcelona: Unprecedented Emergency Plan to Alleviate a Drought in the City
DROUGHT-STRICKEN CYPRUS GETS WATER FROM GREECE
The price of water will skyrocket and water will become more valuable than oil.
Many farmers will not be able to pay the water bill.
The Global Water Crisis And The Coming Battle For The Right To Water
World Water Wars
Water will be source of war unless world acts now, warns minister:

His department warned that two-thirds of the world’s population will live in water-stressed countries by 2025.
Water: China and India are already in big trouble and so are many, many other countries
Water crisis to be biggest world risk
Los Angeles Eyes Sewage as a Source of Water
California faces water rationing due to drought
Food:

The World is running out of food soon.
The Price Of Food: 2007 – 2008
Why Floods Bring America To Its Knees
The U.S. Has No Remaining Grain Reserves
The Best Farmland in the U.S. Is Flooded; Most Americans Are Too Stupid to Panic
Nine meals from anarchy – how Britain is facing a very real food crisis
Food Riots are Coming to the U.S.
Philippines: Food Shortage Looms – Arroyo Adviser
Floods may boost world food prices for years
Philippines: Fighting to survive on mountain of trash
UN alert: One-fourth of world’s wheat at risk from new fungus
Load Up the Pantry – The Wall Street Journal
Honeybee Colony Collapse to Devastate Food Companies, Result in Food Scarcity
Organic Bees Surviving Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD)
Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits
THE FOUR HORSEMEN APPROACH – FAMINE IS IN THE AIR
2008: The year of global food crisis
Making a killing from hunger
Exposed: the great GM crops myth
‘Panic’ wheat buying across the US
Food fear beats climate change
Five million face hunger in Zimbabwe, UN says
Bananas Are Dying, Killed by Corporate Monoculture
World warned on high food costs – BBC NEWS
World Bank Expects More High Food Prices
Food riots to worsen without global action: U.N.
UN secretary-general calls food price rise a global crisis
The food crisis begins to bite
Food Riots and Speculators
Specter of food rationing hits US supermarkets
Rationing of rice hits Britain’s Chinese and curry restaurants
Wal-Mart’s Sam’s Club limits rice purchases
Bay Area Shoppers Asked To Limit Rice Purchases
Food Rationing Confronts Breadbasket of the World
There will be bad harvests, drought, “plagues” and famine.
Billions at risk from wheat super-blight – New Scientist
There will be war about food, there are already food shortages and food riots have erupted in recent months in Guinea, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan and Yemen.
Commodities Boom Sends French Food Prices Rocketing
Drought spreading in Southeast – USA TODAY
‘Frankenfoods’ Giant Monsanto Plays Bully Over Consumer Labeling
The bees are disappearing:

The pollination of crops by bees is responsible for a third of the food produced in the US.
Mystery Bee Disappearances Sweeping U.S

“If the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe then man would only have four years of life left. No more bees, no more pollination, no more plants, no more animals, no more man.” – Albert Einstein
I saw a report that the oceans are already overfished and soon there simply will be no more fish left.

Chinook Salmon Vanish Without a Trace
Yes – in 10 years we may have no bananas
Corn rationing
Warming could trigger insect food frenzy
Pizza and beer now cost an arm and a leg
Rat Plague Hits Bangladesh
German Beehives Hit by Mass Die-Off
World Bank `Destroyed Basic Grains’ in Honduras
Global free market for food and energy faces biggest threat in decades
Crop Drops
Emptying the Breadbasket
Time to Stockpile Food?
Vanishing Topsoil Threatens Sustainability of Human Life on Earth
U.S. corn soars to record as crop flooded
Billions pledged at food summit, but more needed UN chief says
4. Health:

The food and water supply are now so poisoned that you better grow your own food, raise your own animals, have your own well and water filter.

U.K. to Begin Harvesting Organs from Dead Patients Without Consent!
US: Raw sewage is continuously released into rivers, streams
Warning: Using a mobile phone while pregnant can seriously damage your baby
Vaccines and Medical Experiments on Children, Minorities, Woman and Inmates (1845 – 2007)
Merck Plant Dumps Vaccine Waste and Chemicals Into Water Supply
One in five US servicemen has brain injury

The Food Irradiation Plot: Why the USDA Wants to Sterilize Fresh Produce and Turn Live Foods into Dead Foods
Life running out of control – Genetically Modified Organisms
Health Professionals Call for End to Water Fluoridation
Antidepressant drugs don’t work – official study
Study finds 98% of child drug trials lack independent safety checks
Interview with Dr. Russell Blaylock on devastating health effects of MSG, aspartame and excitotoxins
The World According to Monsanto – A documentary that Americans won’t ever see. (Video)
Dangers of the wireless cell phone wi-fi and emf age – Dr. George Carlo (Video)
Mobile phone radiation wrecks your sleep
The Truth About Aspartame – Dr. Russell Blaylock (Video)
The Hidden Hazards of Microwave Cooking
Fluoride, Aspartame and Agenda 21 (Video)
Georgia family challenges federal vaccine law
Vaccination: Pushing Gardasil (Video)
CASPIAN RELEASES MICROCHIP CANCER REPORT
The Water Cure: An interview with Dr. Batmanghelidj
Chemical Additives – Are They Slowly Killing Our Children?
THE FDA STILL IGNORES THE LETHAL RISKS OF TALCUM POWDER
Parents Must Immunize Their Children Or Go To Jail
Baby shampoo study raises chemical concerns
Men who use mobile phones face increased risk of infertility
Vitamins A, C and E Increase Mortality! (and other nonsense from the realm of junk science)
Merck Wrote Drug Studies for Doctors
Most Astonishing Health Disaster of the 20th Century
Feds Not Addressing Drugs In Water
The World According to Monsanto – A documentary that Americans won’t ever see.
CNN: Most Bottled Water is Tap
Feds Censor Sept. 11 Health Disaster
Los Angeles Eyes Sewage as a Source of Water
Bird Flu Medicine Toxic for Teens
Texas will immunize FLDS children
Commentary on Vaccinations
Canada’s Bill C-51 May Outlaw Natural Health Food Products
The REAL brain drain: Modern technology – including violent video games – is changing the way our brains work, says neuroscientist
Chemicals in Plastic Shown to Cause Reproductive and Neurological Disorders
Dirty Secret of Drug Industry: Their Pills are Made in China!
EPA might not act to limit rocket fuel in drinking water
Who should MDs let die in a pandemic? Report offers answers
Summit County judge orders Taser references deleted from medical examiner’s rulings
Should Government Aircraft Spray Chemicals on Residential Areas?

VA testing drugs on war veterans
Flawed St. John’s Wort Study on ADHD Failed to Use Active Form of Herbal Extract
California Begins Poisoning Millions with Toxic Synthetic Fluoride Chemicals
“I Am Legend” Meets Reality: Scientists Create Virus to Fight Cancer
Two More Girls Die After Receiving Gardasil Cervical Cancer Vaccination
Kiddie Prozac Docs Took Millions From Drug Makers
Wildflower Extracts Easily Kill MRSA Superbug
Mercury Fillings Shattered! FDA, ADA Conspiracy to Poison Children with Toxic Mercury Fillings Exposed in Groundbreaking Lawsuit
Study: 1 in 4 adults in NYC have herpes virus
Cook an Egg with Your Cell Phone
Make Popcorn With Your Cell Phone
America’s Medicated Army
Forced Vaccinations Part Of Dark Eugenics Agenda
Bill C-51 pits ‘big pharma’ against natural food vendors
“Worst Vaccine Bill Ever” Seeks Compulsory Shots For All Children
MSG: Causes obesity, is toxic and destroys your brain
Your Food is Toxic and Makes You Sick, Dr. Russell Blaylock, MD
U.S. – FDA Issues Health Warning Over Amalgam
George Carlin, Diet Coke With Aspartame & Cardiac Death
Low Sperm Counts and Deformed Penises: The Chemical Industry Has a Hold on Your Reproductive Future

Insider Traders Investigated For ETF Stripping, Or How The SEC Is Now Only 10 Years Behind The Curve

Insider Traders Investigated For ETF Stripping, Or How The SEC Is Now Only 10 Years Behind The Curve


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/09/2011 21:49 -0500
Exchange Traded FundInsider TradingSecurities and Exchange Commission
The brilliant minds as the SEC have finally realized that when it comes to insider trading, they are and will forever continue to be, about 10 years behind the curve. To wit: today, for the first time we learn that the transvestite midget porn fanatics have realized that one can use ETFs, and, gasp, swaps to mask insider trades. So while the SEC brainiacs diligently scour for those who buy massive blocks of stock (or calls) 2 minutes ahead of an acquisition announcement, virtually everyone else has been sneaking by unscathed simply because they have, rightfully, assumed that the SEC are a bunch of retards. Such investigative brilliance deserves to be rewarded with at least one taxpayer funded screening of Long Dong Silver (oh wait, they may realize there could be manipulation in the silver market, and by none other than JP Morgan, if they were to watch that.)
More on this moment of unparalleled SEC serendipity:
The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether Wall Street traders are using exchange-traded funds as a means of disguising insider trading.
ETFs have emerged as a possible mechanism for maximising gains in one stock while potentially masking trading patterns, people familiar with the matter say.
In one scenario, a trader could learn information about a company, buy an ETF that includes the company’s stock, and short sell the other stocks in the ETF.
The practice, known as ETF-stripping, would allow the trader to benefit from movements in the company’s share price without directly buying or selling that stock.
And the money shot, er, line:
Regulators, who work closely with the US justice department, are concerned that traders are adopting this approach, and others, to mask insider trading.
They are concerned about this now, when this has been used by pretty much everyone in the hedge fund community for the past decade? How the hell stupid were all the analysts and traders in the Galleon-SAC insider trading circle to have been caught if the SEC has only figured out about this now???
And it gets funnier:
They are also looking into whether traders are using swaps to stay off their radar. The Dodd-Frank law will require a portion of swaps to trade on exchanges.
The punchline:
Law officials said they needed to use unconventional tactics because traders had become sophisticated.
Actually no, traders have always used these tactics. It is just the SEC that has forever been a bunch of beyond incompetent, porn-addicted rejects from any private jobs that actually pay anything.
But wait: there's more. Hedge funders, even those caught with their pants down, have a prearranged excuse:
The so-called mosaic theory, whereby investors gather large volumes of data to arrive at conclusions that look like they might be derived from insider trading, can be used as a legal defence.
One fund manager charged with insider trading on Tuesday allegedly told an analyst that he need not worry since he was using mosaic theory.
In other words, pretty soon the entire "get-Stevie" affair will fall appart at the seams after it becomes clear that not only is the SEC's enforcement division an evolutionary bottleneck in orangutan to simian evolution, but their lawyers are pretty much pro rata vertically in the whole Darwinian survivial of the dumbest game.

THE HILL POLL: Voters oppose raising the $14.3T debt ceiling

THE HILL POLL: Voters oppose raising the $14.3T debt ceiling


By Erik Wasson - 02/07/11 12:29 AM ET
Only 27 percent of likely voters favor raising the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling, while 62 percent oppose it, according to an exclusive poll for The Hill.
The poll found solid opposition from Republicans and also from independent voters, who are critical to President Obama’s re-election in 2012.

Seventy-seven percent of likely GOP voters and 64 percent of independent voters said they don’t want the debt ceiling to be raised. Even among Democrats, more oppose raising the ceiling (46 percent) than support it (42 percent).
Winning the congressional vote to raise the debt ceiling is a crucial test for the president. House and Senate Republicans are using the vote, which must take place soon, in an effort to secure deep spending cuts from the White House.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and White House officials warn of dire consequences if the debt ceiling is not raised.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also warned lawmakers last week not to use the vote as a bargaining chip, saying it would be “catastrophic” if the nation defaulted. But the poll, conducted by Pulse Opinion Research among 1,000 likely voters, suggests the administration’s message is not resonating beyond the Beltway.
The poll also finds the public continues to believe President Obama’s 2009 economic stimulus package failed to help the economy.
Only 36 percent of voters surveyed said stimulus spending creates jobs, while 48 percent said flatly that it does not. Crucially, 61 percent of independent voters took that negative view.
Only 40 percent of likely voters say the $787 billion stimulus package helped. While 69 percent of Democrats say it boosted growth, 56 percent of independents think the stimulus hurt or had no impact on the economy.
The president’s budget, due Feb. 14, will call for more spending on infrastructure, research and development and education. The polls suggest the public is unreceptive to the idea, so Obama might find it tough to get these budget requests through a Republican House clamoring for deep cuts.
Voters split on Obama’s economic policies. Forty-four percent in the survey said the policies are hurting the economy, while 41 percent said they are helping. The poll’s margin of error is 3 percent.
By a 47-37 percent margin, independents said Obama has hindered the economic recovery.
Party affiliation made a big difference; 68 percent of self-identified Republicans said the president’s policies are hurting the economy, compared to 71 percent of Democrats who said they are helping.
The poll also asked likely voters if Republican control of the House of Representatives would help or hurt the economy, or have no impact. The survey found 44 percent of respondents said it will help, 30 percent said it will hurt and 20 percent said it will have no impact.
The nation’s jobless rate dipped to 9 percent on Friday, which the White House touted as evidence that its economic policies are having a positive effect. But the economy only added 36,000 jobs in January.
“The overall trend of economic data in recent months has been encouraging, as initiatives put in place by this administration are taking hold, but there is still considerable work to do,” White House economic adviser Austan Goolsbee said Friday.
House Republicans, however, make the case that their new majority is responsible for the encouraging news.
“Today’s [jobs] report … does reflect an economic climate that has a measure of greater certainty thanks to the work of Republicans at the end of the last Congress to stop a massive tax hike on families and small businesses,” said House Republican Policy Committee Chairman Tom Price (R-Ga.).
The Hill’s poll was conducted by telephone on Feb. 1.

RawStory.com: Pulitzer winner tells Raw Story, "US empire could collapse at any time,"

Market Shorter Headlines


RawStory.com: Pulitzer winner tells Raw Story, "US empire could collapse at any time,"
 
 

 
 
America's military and economic empire could collapse at any time, but predicting the precise day, week or month of its potential demise is unattainable, according to a former New York Times war correspondent who spoke with Raw Story.
"The when and how is very dangerous to predict because there's always some factor that blindsides you that you didn't expect," Pulitzer-winning journalist Chris Hedges said in an exclusive interview. "It doesn't look good. But exactly how it plays out and when it plays out, having covered disintegrating societies, it's impossible to tell."
He explained that he learned this lesson as events unfolded around him in the fall of 1989. Then, members of the opposition to the Soviet Empire told him that they predicted travel across the Berlin Wall separating East from West Germany would open within the year. "Within a few hours, the wall didn't exist," he said.
Hedges was one of the 131 activists were arrested in an act of civil disobedience outside the White House yesterday, even as Obama was unveiling a new report citing progress in the Afghanistan war.
Speaking to Raw Story on Wednesday night, he said the signs of US collapse are plain to see and compared the country's course through Afghanistan to Soviet Russia's. "We're losing [the war in Afghanistan] in the same way the Red Army lost it," he said. "It's exactly the same configuration where we sort of control the urban centers where 20 percent of the population lives. The rest of the country where 80 percent of the Afghans live is either in the hands of the Taliban or disputed." "Foreigners will not walk the streets of Kabul because of kidnapping, and journalists regularly meet Taliban officials in Kabul because the whole apparatus is so porous and corrupt," he said.
One day after this interview was conducted, reports hit the global media noting the CIA's warning to President Obama, that the Pakistan-supported Taliban could still regain control of the country.
Hedges predicted that President Obama's war report released Thursday would "contradict not only [US] intelligence reports but everything else that is coming out of Afghanistan." His prediction came startlingly true: the CIA's own assessment was said to stand in striking contrast with President Obama's report.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates, however, insisted that the US controlled more territory in Afghanistan than it did a year ago.
'A corporate coup d'état in slow motion'
Hedges said he attended the protest and planned to get arrested because he is against the corporate powers that have enveloped the nation.
"We've undergone a corporate coup d'état in slow motion," he said. "Our public education system has been gutted. Our infrastructure is corroding and collapsing. Unless we begin to physically resist, they are going to solidify neo-feudalism in this country."
"If we think that Obama is bad, watch the next two years because these corporate forces have turned their back on him," Hedges warned.
Hedges, author of "Death of the Liberal Class," said that his vision of America is one with a functioning social democracy, which stands in stark contrast to the nihilism of the corporate state.
"American workers, as they are repeatedly told, will have to become competitive with prison labor in China," he said. "That's where we're headed, and all the pillars of the liberal establishment are complicit in this."
"At least if you get sick in the UK, you don't go bankrupt or die," he added.
Hedges said that another pressure point is the US dollar, which he pointed out had been dropped by Russia and China in favor of modified ruble/renminbi exchanges.
"A few more deals like that, and our currency becomes junk," he said.

SEC Charges Hedge Fund Managers and Traders in $30 Million Expert Network Insider Trading Scheme

SEC Charges Hedge Fund Managers and Traders in $30 Million Expert Network Insider Trading Scheme
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

2011-40

Washington, D.C., Feb. 8, 2011 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged a New York-based hedge fund and four hedge fund portfolio managers and analysts who illegally traded on confidential information obtained from technology company employees moonlighting as expert network consultants. The scheme netted more than $30 million from trades based on material, nonpublic information about such companies as AMD, Seagate Technology, Western Digital, Fairchild Semiconductor, and Marvell.

Additional Materials

SEC Complaint

News Conference Remarks by Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami

The charges are the first against traders in the SEC’s ongoing investigation of insider trading involving expert networks. The SEC filed its initial charges in the case last week against technology company employees who illegally tipped hedge funds and other investors with material nonpublic information about their companies in return for hundreds of thousands of dollars in sham consulting fees.
In its amended complaint filed today in federal court in Manhattan, the SEC alleges that four hedge fund portfolio managers and analysts received illegal tips from the expert network consultants and then caused their hedge funds to trade on the inside information.
“It is illegal for company insiders who moonlight as consultants to sell confidential information about their companies to traders, and it is equally illegal to buy that corruptly obtained information and trade on it,” said Robert Khuzami, Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement. “Instead of competing on a level playing field with other investors, these hedge fund managers sought to illegally trade today on what others would not learn until tomorrow.”
The SEC’s ongoing investigation is focusing on the activities of expert networks that purportedly provide professional investment research to their clients. While it is legal to obtain expert advice and analysis through expert networking arrangements, it is illegal to trade on material nonpublic information obtained in violation of a duty to keep that information confidential.
The technology company insiders who tipped the confidential information were expert network consultants to the firm Primary Global Research LLC (PGR).
The SEC’s amended complaint alleges:
Samir Barai of New York, N.Y., the founder and portfolio manager of Barai Capital Management, obtained inside information about several technology firms from company insiders, and then traded on the inside information on behalf of Barai Capital.
Jason Pflaum of New York, N.Y., a former technology analyst at Barai Capital Management, obtained inside information about technology companies and shared it with Barai. After Pflaum shared the confidential information with him, Barai used it to illegally trade on behalf of Barai Capital.
Noah Freeman of Boston, Mass., a former managing director at a Boston-based hedge fund, obtained inside information regarding Marvell and shared it with Donald Longueuil of New York, N.Y., a former managing director at a Connecticut-based hedge fund. Longueuil caused his hedge fund to trade on the inside information. Freeman also obtained inside information about another technology company and caused his hedge fund to trade on the nonpublic information.
The SEC’s amended complaint charges each of the defendants with violations of Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Rule 10b-5 thereunder, and additionally charges Barai, Pflaum, Freeman and Longueuil with aiding and abetting others’ violations of Section 10(b) and Rule 10b-5 thereunder. The complaint also charges Barai, Pflaum and Barai Capital with violations of Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933. The complaint seeks a final judgment permanently enjoining the defendants from future violations of the above provisions of the federal securities laws, ordering them to disgorge their ill-gotten gains plus prejudgment interest, and ordering them to pay financial penalties.
Sanjay Wadhwa, Jason Friedman, Joseph Sansone, Daniel Marcus — members of the SEC’s Market Abuse Unit in New York — have conducted the SEC’s investigation with Matthew Watkins, Neil Hendelman, Diego Brucculeri and James D’Avino of the New York Regional Office. The SEC’s litigation effort will be led by Valerie Szczepanik and Kevin McGrath. The SEC thanks the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York and the Federal Bureau of Investigation for their assistance in the matter.
For more information about this enforcement action, contact:
George Canellos

Director, SEC’s New York Regional Office

(212) 336-1020
David Rosenfeld

Associate Director, SEC’s New York Regional Office

(212) 336-0153
Sanjay Wadhwa

Deputy Chief, Market Abuse Unit, Division of Enforcement

(212) 336-0181

Paul Tudor Jones Calling A Top?

Paul Tudor Jones Calling A Top?


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/09/2011 11:21 -0500
Ben BernankePaul Tudor Jones
Wondering why the market suddenly appears as if Bernanke said he thought the dollar has hit a technical bottom? The reason is that there is a rumor (for now) that Paul Tudor Jones has just called a top in the S&P, and is also expecting a bounce in bonds. Unclear if PTJ used the Tepper "balls to the walls" trademark when referring to the selling that may commence. And boy are we hoping the selloff with a huge surge in volume that resulted, is not a response to what one man thinks or else there really is no point in trading anything ever again.

Frontrunning: February 9

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/09/2011 08:56 -0500
British PoundGermanyInternational Monetary FundratingsReutersTARPTrade BalanceUnited Kingdom
•Two Fed Skeptics of Bond Purchases Say Inflation Underscores Stimulus Risk (Bloomberg)

•'Heavy Lifting’ Looms as China Rate Below Inflation (BusinessWeek)

•Rothschild to take control of the weather next (EarthNews)

•Underground world hints at China's coming crisis (Telegraph)

•Wait A Minute--Why Should I Hate Bernie Madoff? (Forbes)

•Egyptian Unrest Throws Deficit Goals Off Course as Yields Rise (BusinessWeek), all they need is Paulson pitching blank check TARP now

•SEC to Wean Markets Off Credit Ratings (Reuters)

•You don't say: Commodity prices could squeeze economy, just as in 2008 (Barrons)

•And speaking of, did anyone even notice that Moody’s lowered Jordan's debt outlook (BusinessWeek)?

•Asia Fights Inflation With Stronger Currencies (WSJ)

Lets Review and Rewind Back to the start of the Shit Storm

Submitted by: Francis Soyer
020911

Here is a clip when the shit first hit the fan roughly 2 years ago. Listen to the commentary closely and the assesment on what the consequences would and could be. Fast forward to today and look at the dollar index or UUP if you want to see it in etf form. Yes it is disturbing. What is more disturbing is: why is this the only guy up on capital hill who gets it? And if he is NOT the only one who gets it, why is he the only one talking about it or who actually has a pair, and is trying to do something about it?

I can only suppose one of two scenarios. One is that the combined IQ's of the rest of the House and Senate is about the same as an empty beer can or Two that their moral compasses are so fucked up its a wonder they can find their way to chambers to cast votes for their campaign finance buds.

The Latest In Insider-Trading Gate: Two Former SAC Traders Charged

The Latest In Insider-Trading Gate: Two Former SAC Traders Charged


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2011 12:03 -0500
CitigroupFBIInsider TradingSACSecurities FraudWall Street Journal
The latest development in the insider trading gate, whose sole target is and has always been SAC, appears to be closing in on the target. According to a press release to be held shortly, two former SAC employees are about to become cooperating witnesses for the government. The ex-SACites are Noah Freeman and Donald Longueuil, which according to Bloomberg worked at the fund between 2008 and 2010. The full conference by US Attorney Preet Bharara is due any moment. This is likely just an intermediate phase before the big names start being accused as bigger cases are built against those at the very top.
From Bloomberg:
Noah Freeman and Donald Longueuil, former employees of SAC Capital Advisors LP according to a person familiar with the matter, were charged as part of a nationwide investigation of insider trading at hedge funds, technology companies and so-called expert networking firms.
Longueuil worked at SAC Capital-unit CR Intrinsic from July 2008 to July 2010 and Freeman worked at SAC Capital from June 2008 to January 2010, according to the person, who declined to be identified because the matter isn’t public. Charges against three hedge fund managers and an analyst were announced today by U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara in Manhattan. Counts against two of them are to include obstruction of justice, Bharara said.
Samir Barai was also charged by federal prosecutors in New York, according to court documents. Freeman and Jason Pflaum reached a plea agreement with prosecutors, according to the filings. Winifred Jiau, already charged as part of the probe, communicated with Barai and Freeman, according to court papers.
Barai, founder of Barai Capital Management, is co- conspirator 1, or “CC1,” in the complaint filed in December against Jiau, an ex-consultant for expert-networking firm Primary Global LLC, according to a person familiar with that case.
A profile of all 4 charged hedge funders is below courtesy of the WSJ:
Samir Barai, of Barai Capital Management
Barai in 2008 ordered up purchased of stock in tech companies — including Marvell Technology and Fairchild Semiconductor — after being on the receiving end of their corporate secrets, according to the government charges unsealed today.
Barai in November also told one of his colleagues to destroy “documentary and digital records after reading articles about a federal grand jury investigation into insider trading,” according to the government complaint today.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Barai was an unnamed co-conspirator in a December criminal complaint. Prosecutors said a hedge fund, which the Journal has identified as Barai Capital, received more than $820,000 in May and June 2008 from trading ahead of Marvell’s earnings.
Barai until 2007 ran a tech-stock portfolio at Citigroup’s internal hedge-fund division, and then he left to found his own investment firm. FBI agents raided his hedge fund in November, the Journal reported last month. Samir Barai and other employees of Barai Capital either didn’t respond to requests for comment or declined to comment for last month’s stories in the Journal.
Donald Longeuil
Longeuil, 35 years old, left CR Intrinsic Investors LLC, a division of SAC Capital, about a year ago, the Journal is reporting. The government complaint today says Longeuil destroyed a computer flash drive and external hard drives in November, after reading about an investigation into insider trading.
Jason Pfaum
A technology analyst at Barai Capital Management, Pfaum pleaded guilty on charges of conspiracy and securities fraud and has been cooperating with prosecutors in their insider trading investigation, according to the legal filings today. In 2008, according to the government, Pfaum talked with an employee at Fairchild Semiconductor to glean secrets about the company. Barai then a day later ordered the purchase of about 95,000 Fairchild shares, according to the legal complaint.
Noah Freeman
Freeman worked at hedge fund SAC Capital’s Boston office from 2008 until January 2010, the Journal is reporting. Freeman, whom the government describes as a specialist in the tech and semiconductor industries, “maintained a network of sources who provided Freeman with Inside Information regarding public companies,” including Marvell, Nvidia, Fairchild and Actel, according to the legal filings released today.

Ratigan And Fleckenstein Explain The Fed's Role In Recent Food Price Ignited Revolutions

For over a year now, Zero Hedge has been predicting that in its foolhardy attempt of "inflation or bust", the Fed's actions would sooner or later lead to mass rioting and possible revolutions as a result of surging and out of control food prices (which are just the peak of the alternative investment pyramid - yes, stunningly free money can go into other things besides stocks). There have been those who have claimed that deflation is still a far greater force, despite that the all important shadow banking system made a positive inflection point in ending deleveraging in Q3 (and on March 10 we will know whether the Q3 strength persisted into Q4) as was discussed previously, and today's first time in over two years increase in revolving credit merely confirms this view. Alas, to all who believe that deflation or deleveraging is a greater threat: you have our sympathies, as fundamentally your are correct, and were the business cycle have the benefit of playing out in normal course, all the world's banks would become insolvent and yes, deflation would be rampaging. The problem is that these same people do not realize that to Bernanke (whom we have referred Genocide Ben for precisely this reason) there is no other alternative, and inflation must be achieved no matter how terrible the social cost, or the damage to the monetary system. Regardless, the actions in North Africa are just the start. Commodities will run up far higher, and discontent will sooner or later reach to Asia, and possibly to countries which have nuclear arsenals at their disposal. What happens then is anyone guess. Yet for anyone who is still confused about the ultimate Fed agenda, Dylan Ratigan and Bill Fleckenstein sat down late last week to make it so clear that virtually anyone and everyone can understand what the Bernanke endgame is.

Just How Ugly Is The Truth Of America's Unemployment: David Rosenberg Explains

Just How Ugly Is The Truth Of America's Unemployment: David Rosenberg Explains


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/07/2011 11:02 -0500
AIGAmerican International GroupBear StearnsBen BernankeChain Store SalesDavid RosenbergGross Domestic ProductLehmanObama AdministrationPersonal IncomeRealityRecessionrecoveryRosenbergUnemploymentYield Curve
Over the past 3 days America has been battered by one after another apologist explaining just how good the employment data is if one strips out all the "bad", and how all the "bad" can and should be stripped out by all patriots, and attributed solely to bad weather. For those who are beyond sick and tired of listening to this tripe, here is David Rosenberg once again telling it how it is. In summary: "The data from the Household survey are truly insane. The labour force has plunged an epic 764k in the past two months. The level of unemployment has collapsed 1.2 million, which has never happened before. People not counted in the labour force soared 753k in the past two months. These numbers are simply off the charts and likely reflect the throngs of unemployed people starting to lose their extended benefits and no longer continuing their job search (for the two-thirds of them not finding a new job). These folks either go on welfare or they rely on their spouse or other family members or friends for support."
JOBS DATA REDUX — ADDING MORE MEAT TO THE BONE
It is laughable that everyone believes the labour market in the U.S.A. is improving. Lost in the debate over the weather impact was the benchmark revision to 2010 — overstated by 215k or 24%. The U.S. economy generated 909k jobs last year, which works out to just under 76k per month. That is insignificant considering that the population grew around 160k per month. The level of U.S. employment today stands at 130.265 million, which is where it was in January 2003.

The data from the Household survey are truly insane. The labour force has plunged an epic 764k in the past two months. The level of unemployment has collapsed 1.2 million, which has never happened before. People not counted in the labour force soared 753k in the past two months.
These numbers are simply off the charts and likely reflect the throngs of unemployed people starting to lose their extended benefits and no longer continuing their job search (for the two-thirds of them not finding a new job). These folks either go on welfare or they rely on their spouse or other family members or friends for support.
Meanwhile, it does look like real weekly earnings contracted in January for the third month in a row — that last occurred from April-June of 2009. Once the payroll tax cut effect fades and material cost pressures come to bear with a lag in margins the retail space will be squeezed hard.
Saving the day now are the payroll tax cuts but this effect wears off in Q2. Congress is about to cut spending and Bernanke doesn’t have a ton of support for QE2 from within the ranks. And the story ahead is one of profit margin squeeze more generally, though the market doesn’t yet see it.
WHAT DID THE U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DO?
We were asked about this on Friday because it was already known that it went from 16.7% to 16.1% — everyone wants to believe that this is a harbinger of labour market tightening. But it may be time for a reality check. The broad U-6 jobless rate measure was 8.8% when the recession began, was 9.0% when Bear Stearns failed, 10.5% when Fannie and Freddie imploded, 11.9% when AIG was taken over, Lehman failed and Merrill taken over, and 15.6% when the stock market hit its cycle low.
There’s also some seasonal adjustment quirks because of the massive increases in the raw unemployment data in January 2010 and January 2009 and the current seasonal factors are most sensitive to smoothing out what happened in the same month of the past two years. In January 2009, the U6 spiked 1.9% on a nonseasonally adjusted basis and in January 2010 it rose 0.9%. So the seasonal factors now were looking for an increase of 1.4% and instead it comes in at +0.7%, which on a raw basis is pretty normal for January, and it gets translated into a decline to 16.1% from 16.7%. Remember, the raw data showed an increase to 17.3% from 16.6%.
Nobody seemed to know what to do with the job data on Friday due to weather. It’s interesting that the storms seemed to have little effect on the ISMs or chain store sales, but everyone believes that just because a bunch of folks didn’t make it into the office in January the impact is probably hugely exaggerated. We saw an economist quoted on the front page of Investor’s Business Daily stating so arrogantly that he is “comfortable” with the view that the snow subtracted 100k from nonfarm payrolls in January. Even if true that would still be 138k, which is still abnormally weak for this stage of the cycle, not to mention still quite a bit below the post-ADP whispered estimates of +180k.
This U.S. labour market is still one sick puppy. The fact that 2.8 million Americans said they had given up on their job search in January was overshadowed by the debates surrounding the weather impact on the headline. Talk about being small-minded and totally myopic on the small picture. Then again, we have to admit that is what drives speculative rallies — the “noise” in the data. Of all the analysis we saw over the weekend, the only one that made any sense was the editorial by Bob Herbert on page A15 of the weekend NYT:
“The policy makers who rely on the data zealots are just as detached from the real world of real people. They’re always promising in the most earnest tones imaginable to do something about employment, to ease an awful squeeze on the middle class (policy makers never talk about the poor), to reform education, and so on.
They say those things because they have to. But they are far more obsessed with the numbers than they are with the struggles and suffering of the real people. You won’t hear policy makers acknowledging that the unemployment numbers would be much worse if not for the millions of people who have left the work force over the past few years. What happened to those folks? How are they and their families faring.
The policy makers don’t tell us that most of the new jobs being created in such meager numbers are, in fact, poor ones, with lousy pay and few or no benefits. What we hear is what the data zealots pump out week after week, that the market is up, retail sales are strong, Wall Street salaries and bonuses are streaking, as always, to the moon, and that businesses are sitting on mountains of cash. So all must be right with the world.
Jobs? Well, the less said the better
What’s really happening, of course, is the same thing that’s been happening in this country for the longest time — the folks at the top are doing fabulously well and they are not interested in the least in spreading the wealth around.
The people running the country — the ones with the real clout, whether Democrats or Republicans — are all part of this power elite. Ordinary people may be struggling, but both the Obama administration and the Republican Party leadership are down on their knees, slavishly kissing the rings of the financial and corporate kingpins.”
Look, these are just excerpts for your convenience. The whole column just oozes with the truth — the true state of the labour market that is widely dismissed.
As a trusted and loyal reader notified us on Friday after the data were released and the consensus view out of the bond market was how reflationary this labour market report was, the civilian population rose 1.872 million last year. At the same time, the labour force fell 167k. Those not in the labour force soared 2.094 million. Just in January, we saw 319,000 people drop out of the work force. These numbers are incredible. This is a highly dysfunctional labour market. People are falling through the cracks at an alarming rate as they come off their extended jobless benefits — “doubling up” as Bob Hebert put it — and we have traders and economists debating the weather effects of a nonfarm payroll data-point that will most assuredly get revised no fewer than three times in the next couple of years.

It’s incredible how the masses of pundits have responded to the data.

Real labour compensation contracted at a 0.6% annual rate in Q4, and since the recession technically ended, it has shrunk in four of the last six quarters. How is this the hallmark of a well functioning labour market? We can see now how this environment has been wonderful for equities:
•The Chinese government stimulates to the effect of 13% of GDP in late 2008 and this spills over globally.

•The T.A.R.P. money is distributed around the financial and industrial sector in the U.S.A.

•Bank shares are bought by the Treasury; ditto for shares of auto companies.

•Accounting rules are changed so the banks can start showing a profit.

•The Fed radically steepens the yield curve by cutting rates to zero and then promotes financial sector profitability by purchasing mortgages en masse. The mantra is that the Fed and Treasury saved us from a Depression.

•The Fed moves to expand its balance sheet even more in November but unofficially announces the extension in late August.

•The U.S. government embarks on a spending spree in early 2009 and runs up a record debt bill and then extends the stimulus in late 2010.

So the corporate sector has been receiving tremendous support from the government. All the while, the acute anxiety among the working class has allowed companies to continuously cut unit labour costs, which in turn has prompted a V-shaped recovery in profit margins.
Now what about the top-line? We just saw in those Q4 productivity numbers that came out for Q4 that the price deflator for the nonfarm business sector actually fell at a 0.9% annual rate. But, you see, companies don’t have to worry about that — they can afford to keep prices down because not only can they cut labour costs quite easily in this environment, but the federal government is ensuring that people still get paid even if it’s not from their employer. We have a situation now where a record near-20% of total personal income is coming in the form of government assistance, whether that be in Social Security, food stamps, or the unprecedented expansion of jobless benefits.
But to be calling for a labour market recovery when real compensation per hour is declining at a 0.6% annual rate is just slightly a case of looking at the situation through rose-coloured glasses. Just a tad.

Frontrunning Today's NFP Number (And Benchmark Revisions)

Frontrunning Today's NFP Number (And Benchmark Revisions)


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/04/2011 07:16 -0500
Goldman's Andrew Tilton dissects today's NFP number, explaining why if it is weaker than expected (+146k) it is due to snow, and why if it stronger than expected, it is entirely due to the "economic recovery" (and not Bernanke's hyperinflationary mandate). Bottom line: win-win, while North African (and soon Middle East) regimes: lose-lose.
Winter Weather Vs. Improving Fundamentals--A January Job Market Showdown
The January employment report is setting up to be a duel between improving job market fundamentals and nasty winter weather. The fundamentals have been strong, with accelerating GDP growth, signs of a pickup in job openings, and a declining trend of layoffs in recent months. But very cold and snowy winter weather—including a “major” snowstorm in the January payroll survey week—likely kept some people from getting to work, suppressing the payroll count.
•We continue to estimate a gain of 175,000 in nonfarm payrolls for January. The underlying trend is very likely stronger than this—or will be soon—but bad weather will mask some of that improvement. We expect the unemployment rate to tick back up to 9.5% after December’s very sharp decline. Overall, market risks are probably skewed to the side of a “strong employment” reaction—weaker numbers may be downplayed as the result of weather, whereas a strong report is likely to be viewed as evidence of an improving trend.

•Tomorrow’s report will also feature the annual “benchmark revisions” to the employment data; the Labor Department’s preliminary estimate is for a 366,000 downward revision to the level of payrolls in March 2010, implying that job growth over the previous year was overestimated by about 30,000 per month. Typically, revisions for subsequent months are directionally similar but smaller in magnitude.

The January employment report is setting up to be a duel between improving job market fundamentals and nasty winter weather. In general, labor market fundamentals have looked quite strong in recent months. But very cold and snowy winter weather—including a “major” snowstorm in the January payroll survey week—likely kept some people from getting to work, suppressing the payroll count. Below we take a look at each of these forces in turn.
On the fundamental side, good labor market omens continue to accumulate:
1. Accelerating economic growth. Real GDP growth picked up to 3.2% in the fourth quarter, the second consecutive acceleration. The composition of the report was very encouraging as well; one way to see this is that nonfarm output rose 4.5% annualized in Q4 (helping productivity growth to a solid performance in a report earlier today). Generally, employment growth follows GDP growth with a short lag of one to a few months, so accelerating GDP growth should translate into somewhat faster employment growth in fairly short order.
2. A steady trend down in layoffs. The four-week average of new jobless claims reached 413,000 in the January payroll survey week, down from an average of 465,000 through the first three quarters of 2010. Adjusted for the size of the labor force, new claims have fallen to mid-1990s levels, the onset of a period of very strong employment growth.
3. An increase (possibly large) in job openings. The Conference Board’s monthly report on job advertising showed an enormous surge in open positions. The 16% month-on-month gain in new online job advertisements was the largest in the six-year history of the series. However, this must be taken with a grain of salt given that the report included significant revisions to historical data (apparently due to a new process to remove duplicates and inauthentic ads), and given that the underlying non-seasonally adjusted data is not available (despite our requests) for analysis. The Monster employment index was directionally consistent but much less spectacular, posting a 3-point gain after seasonal adjustment (slightly over a 2% increase).
4. A robust ADP report. Though we were rightly suspicious of the large gain in December’s ADP report (see “Growth is Accelerating—When Will Employment?,” US Daily, January 5), its January reading should not suffer from the “purging” issue that concerned us last month. (Through most of 2010, ADP missed to the low side; adjusting for its average error last year, the gain of 187,000 private sector jobs forecasted by the ADP report would imply 246,000 private payrolls.) This month the issue is different: ADP’s employment count is based on the number of people on payrolls, regardless of how many hours they worked, so it does not exhibit a significant snowstorm effect. The Labor Department report only counts people as employed “who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month” (for more details, see http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesfaq.htm#scope2), so hourly employees who didn’t work at all during this time due to weather would not count as employed in the official data whereas they do in the ADP report.
5. Better survey data. Both of the monthly surveys conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in January featured gains in indexes of employment. In fact, the employment component of the ISM manufacturing survey rose to its highest reading since 1973 (61.7, from 58.9 in December). The nonmanufacturing survey’s employment index rose to 54.5, the highest reading for this survey since May 2006. Less importantly, the Conference Board’s survey of consumers saw an improvement in perceptions of job availability, with the difference between the share of consumers viewing jobs as “plentiful” versus “hard to get” falling to -38.2%--a dismal level, but the best reading in 20 months.
If the fundamentals were the only thing we had to worry about, this month’s payroll call would be fairly simple—better than the last report, probably much better. But as so often happens, there’s a complicating factor. While the fundamentals look encouraging, January’s weather was terrible:
1. Cold weather. Winter temperatures can have a significant impact on employment in seasonally sensitive sectors (for a primer on the effects of weather on the economic data more broadly, see “What’s With the Weather?” US Economics Analyst 07/02, January 12, 2007). January was much colder than the seasonal norm—for the month as a whole, essentially tied for the coldest January since 1994. However, the payroll report measures month-on-month changes, and December was substantially colder than normal as well (the coldest in a decade, in fact). Adjusting for the timing of the employment survey and other factors, we estimate the incremental impact in January at perhaps 10,000-20,000 jobs. This should show up in weaker-than-usual growth of sectors like construction.
2. “Major” snowstorm. The Midwest and Northeast were hit by a large snowstorm late in the payroll survey week. This caused at least a few firms to reduce work hours and likewise kept at least some employees from reaching their workplaces. When we published our original payroll forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had not yet issued a rating for the storm; it now has a preliminary categorization of “major” (the middle of five rankings), bigger than we expected. If we include a variable for snowstorm intensity in our models of employment, we find that a storm of this magnitude has an average impact in the neighborhood of 40,000-50,000 on reported payroll employment. We emphasize that this is quite uncertain, as we don’t have many data points (large snowstorms during the payroll survey week) to go on. Any weather effect should be fully unwound the subsequent month (i.e. if January were 50,000 below the underlying trend, February should be 50,000 above it), assuming of course that we don’t see another large snowstorm next week. Most of the snowstorm effect occurs in the construction and leisure/hospitality (hotels and restaurants) sectors, so job gains or losses in these two sectors, which have averaged -5,000 and +19,000 respectively over the past three months, will help us gauge the extent of any weather effect on the report.
When all is said and done, we haven’t changed our preliminary forecast for the employment report. We expect an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 175,000, with the unemployment rate at 9.5% (giving back a small part of its large drop in December), and average hourly earnings up 0.1%.
Why haven’t we changed our forecast this week? We’ve gotten better-than-expected news on the fundamentals (particularly online job advertising, the ADP report, and the ISM employment indexes), but worse-than-expected news on weather (the NOAA’s quantitative ranking of the snowstorm suggests a considerably bigger impact than we’d thought at first), and we think these are at least partly offsetting. So there is a lot of uncertainty, but it runs in both directions. In any case, in terms of market impact, we view the risks as skewed to the side of a “strong employment” reaction—weaker numbers are likely to be downplayed as the result of weather distortions, whereas strong numbers are likely to be viewed as evidence of an improving trend. Note that barring a sharp shift in the fundamental data or another big snowstorm, the February employment report is likely to look very strong, as it should benefit from mean reversion on the weather front.
One final consideration in Friday’s report: the Labor Department will indicate the extent of its annual “benchmark revision” to nonfarm payrolls. Each year, the Labor Department adjusts the level of payrolls the previous March to reflect a near-comprehensive count of unemployment insurance records up to that point. Last October, the Labor Department estimated that it would have to revise down the level of March 2010 payrolls by 366,000. A downward benchmark revision would in turn result in a downward revision to monthly changes since the previous benchmark in March 2009 (if the adjustment turned out to be 366,000, then the average monthly change between March 2009 and March 2010 would be revised down by about 30,000). The Labor Department will also adjust monthly changes since March 2010 to reflect its assessment of what the comprehensive data imply for more recent employment growth; typically these revisions are directionally similar but smaller in magnitude.