Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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• Arab World Embraces Israeli’s YouTube "Zenga Zenga" Spoof of Qaddafi Rant; Two Versions, With and Without Dancers
• China Cracks Down on Mid-East Style Protests With Water Canons; Police Blanket Shanghai, Beijing; Internet Search for "Egypt" and "Tunisia" Blocked
• Libyan Rebels Tighten Ring Around Tripoli; Oman Sultan Reshuffles Cabinet After Protests
• Massive Rout in Irish Elections; Collision Course with the EU; Default the Best Option for Ireland
Arab World Embraces Israeli’s YouTube "Zenga Zenga" Spoof of Qaddafi Rant; Two Versions, With and Without Dancers
Posted: 27 Feb 2011 04:27 PM PST
The New York Times reports Arab World Embraces Israeli’s YouTube Spoof of Qaddafi Rant.
A satirical YouTube clip mocking Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s megalomania is fast becoming a popular token of the Libya uprising across Middle East. And in an added affront to Colonel Qaddafi, it was created by an Israeli living in Tel Aviv.
Noy Alooshe, 31, an Israeli journalist, musician and Internet buff, said he saw Colonel Qaddafi’s televised speech last Tuesday in which the Libyan leader vowed to hunt down protesters “inch by inch, house by house, home by home, alleyway by alleyway,” and immediately identified it as a “classic hit.”
“He was dressed strangely, and he raised his arms” like at a trance party, Mr. Alooshe said in a telephone interview on Sunday. Then there were Colonel Qaddafi’s words with their natural beat.
Mr. Alooshe spent a few hours at the computer, using Auto-Tune pitch corrector technology to set the speech to the music of “Hey Baby,” a 2010 electro hip-hop song by American rapper Pitbull, featuring another artist, T-Pain. He titled it “Zenga-Zenga,” echoing Col. Qaddafi’s repetition of the word zanqa, Arabic for alleyway.
Mr. Alooshe said he was a little worried that if the Libyan leader survived, he could send one of his sons after him. But he said it was “also very exciting to be making waves in the Arab world as an Israeli.”
As one surfer wrote in an Arabic talkback early Sunday, “What’s the problem if he’s an Israeli? The video is still funny.” He signed off with the international cyber-laugh, “Hahaha.”
Two Versions, With and Without Dancers
original smash hit with dancers
Zenga Zenga Original Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBY-0n4esNY
revised version without dancers
Zenga Zenga Revised Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GcUutnU2gk
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
Monday, February 28, 2011
A Higher Percentage of Americans Believed in King George During the Revolutionary War than Believe in Congress Today
A Higher Percentage of Americans Believed in King George During the Revolutionary War than Believe in Congress Today
Submitted by George Washington on 02/27/2011 15:57 -0500
Washington’s Blog
Influential Harvard and Stanford law professor Lawrence Lessig noted in a must-watch speech last week that polls show that only 11% of the American people have confidence in Congress.
He notes that more people believed in King George at the time of the Revolutionary War than believe in congress today.
He's right.
Historians have estimated that between 15 and 20% of the white population of the colonies were Loyalists
Watch:
Submitted by George Washington on 02/27/2011 15:57 -0500
Washington’s Blog
Influential Harvard and Stanford law professor Lawrence Lessig noted in a must-watch speech last week that polls show that only 11% of the American people have confidence in Congress.
He notes that more people believed in King George at the time of the Revolutionary War than believe in congress today.
He's right.
Historians have estimated that between 15 and 20% of the white population of the colonies were Loyalists
Watch:
Feb 25 (Reuters) - Regulators closed one bank in the U.S. on Friday, bringing to 23 the total number of bank failures in 2011
Feb 25 (Reuters) - Regulators closed one bank in the U.S. on Friday, bringing to 23 the total number of bank failures in 2011
In 2010 157 banks failed following 140 failures in 2009.
The bulk of the failures increasingly have been smaller institutions, those with less than $1 billion in assets, as large banks have recovered more quickly from the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
The FDIC announced the closure on Friday of Valley Community Bank, St. Charles, Illinois, which had about $123.8 million in assets and $124.2 million in deposits as of December 31. First State Bank, Mendota, Illinois will assume the deposits and has agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.
Banks that failed in 2010 had total assets of $92 billion, compared with $169.7 billion the previous year.
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has said the agency expects the number of failures to drop in 2011.
In the FDIC's most recent quarterly report, released on Feb. 23, the agency said the number of banks on the "problem list" grew to 884 from 860.
Most of these institutions will not fail but the list provides an indication of how many banks are struggling.
Earlier this week, however, Bair said the outlook for the industry as a whole is improving including for small institutions.
In its quarterly update, the FDIC reported that banks had combined earnings of $21.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010, marking their fourth profitable quarter in a row.
But statistics showed lending continued to contract, down 0.2 percent or $13.6 billion for the quarter, and Bair warned it would have to pick up for the industry to take the next step in its recovery from the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
Washington Mutual, which had $307 billion in assets when it was seized in September 2008, remains the largest bank to fail during the financial crisis. (Reporting by Richard Cowan; Editing by Carol Bishopric)
In 2010 157 banks failed following 140 failures in 2009.
The bulk of the failures increasingly have been smaller institutions, those with less than $1 billion in assets, as large banks have recovered more quickly from the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
The FDIC announced the closure on Friday of Valley Community Bank, St. Charles, Illinois, which had about $123.8 million in assets and $124.2 million in deposits as of December 31. First State Bank, Mendota, Illinois will assume the deposits and has agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.
Banks that failed in 2010 had total assets of $92 billion, compared with $169.7 billion the previous year.
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has said the agency expects the number of failures to drop in 2011.
In the FDIC's most recent quarterly report, released on Feb. 23, the agency said the number of banks on the "problem list" grew to 884 from 860.
Most of these institutions will not fail but the list provides an indication of how many banks are struggling.
Earlier this week, however, Bair said the outlook for the industry as a whole is improving including for small institutions.
In its quarterly update, the FDIC reported that banks had combined earnings of $21.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2010, marking their fourth profitable quarter in a row.
But statistics showed lending continued to contract, down 0.2 percent or $13.6 billion for the quarter, and Bair warned it would have to pick up for the industry to take the next step in its recovery from the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
Washington Mutual, which had $307 billion in assets when it was seized in September 2008, remains the largest bank to fail during the financial crisis. (Reporting by Richard Cowan; Editing by Carol Bishopric)
Marc Faber: "I Think We Are All Doomed"
Marc Faber: "I Think We Are All Doomed"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2011 14:31 -0500
All who enjoy hearing a meaty Marc Faber fire and brimstone sermon, that cuts through the bullshit, will be happy to know that the Gloom, Boom and Doom author conducted a 40 minute interview with the McAlvany Financial Group, which covers all the usual suspects: gold, silver, precious and industrial metals, the "crack up boom", the future of the Ponzi and capital markets in general and much more. Of course, it wouldn't be a Faber interview without the requisite soundbite: "I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it." Of course, on a long enough timeline...
Key extract from the Faber speech:
I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it.
For the investor, the question is: How do I navigate through this complete disaster that is going to unfold? And I think if you look at different asset classes – real estate, equities, bonds, cash, precious metals – I suppose that you have to be diversified. I think real estate in the U.S. may go down another 10% or so, or even 15%, but I am always telling people, if you can buy the piece of land or the house you like, what do you actually care if it does down another 10%? If everything I bought in my life had only gone down 10-15%, I would be very rich, because a lot of things became worthless, especially loans to friends, and bonds, and so forth.
Look at the history, for example, of Germany, for the last 100 years. They had World War I. They had the hyper-inflation in World War II. The bond-holders got wiped out three times. If you owned Siemens, and you still own Siemens today, it was not a fantastic investment, but at least you still have something. You were not wiped out. I think that in equities you will be better off because you have an ownership in a company, than by being the lenders to companies, and the lenders, especially, to governments.
Faber on the key distinction between nominal and real, which nobody on CNBC seems to grasp yet, why gold now is cheaper than it was in 1999, and on the Dow and gold reaching parity.
In a money-printing environment, it is very difficult to know what is actually cheap and what is expensive. Is the price of wheat high, or is it low? Inflation-adjusted, it is extremely low. In nominal terms, it is relatively high. I believe that, in March 2009 when the S&P was at 666, the market was actually much cheaper than is generally perceived, because of the money-printing, and I do not anticipate that we will see 666 on the S&P again, in nominal terms.
In other words, they are going to print so much money that the S&P could be at, perhaps, 2000, but in real terms, it could be down below the lows of March 6, 2009. Maybe in gold terms, we could one day reach a ratio of Dow Jones to gold of 1-to-1, as we were in 1980. In other words, the Dow could be perhaps at 10,000 or 12,000, and gold could be at the same level.
That is why I am advising people to accumulate gold. Can gold have a correction? Yes, there has been a little bit too much euphoria about gold, and we may have a correction, but I do not think we are in a bubble in the price of gold. In fact, I could make a case that gold, at this level of $1400 an ounce, is cheaper than in 1999, when I look at the unfunded liability growth of the U.S., at the credit growth of the U.S., and at the household growth, and at the money printing, and at all the wealth creation that happens in China and Russia.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2011 14:31 -0500
All who enjoy hearing a meaty Marc Faber fire and brimstone sermon, that cuts through the bullshit, will be happy to know that the Gloom, Boom and Doom author conducted a 40 minute interview with the McAlvany Financial Group, which covers all the usual suspects: gold, silver, precious and industrial metals, the "crack up boom", the future of the Ponzi and capital markets in general and much more. Of course, it wouldn't be a Faber interview without the requisite soundbite: "I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it." Of course, on a long enough timeline...
Key extract from the Faber speech:
I think we are all doomed. I think what will happen is that we are in the midst of a kind of a crack-up boom that is not sustainable, that eventually the economy will deteriorate, that there will be more money-printing, and then you have inflation, and a poor economy, an extreme form of stagflation, and, eventually, in that situation, countries go to war, and, as a whole, derivatives, the market, and everything will collapse, and like a computer when it crashes, you will have to reboot it.
For the investor, the question is: How do I navigate through this complete disaster that is going to unfold? And I think if you look at different asset classes – real estate, equities, bonds, cash, precious metals – I suppose that you have to be diversified. I think real estate in the U.S. may go down another 10% or so, or even 15%, but I am always telling people, if you can buy the piece of land or the house you like, what do you actually care if it does down another 10%? If everything I bought in my life had only gone down 10-15%, I would be very rich, because a lot of things became worthless, especially loans to friends, and bonds, and so forth.
Look at the history, for example, of Germany, for the last 100 years. They had World War I. They had the hyper-inflation in World War II. The bond-holders got wiped out three times. If you owned Siemens, and you still own Siemens today, it was not a fantastic investment, but at least you still have something. You were not wiped out. I think that in equities you will be better off because you have an ownership in a company, than by being the lenders to companies, and the lenders, especially, to governments.
Faber on the key distinction between nominal and real, which nobody on CNBC seems to grasp yet, why gold now is cheaper than it was in 1999, and on the Dow and gold reaching parity.
In a money-printing environment, it is very difficult to know what is actually cheap and what is expensive. Is the price of wheat high, or is it low? Inflation-adjusted, it is extremely low. In nominal terms, it is relatively high. I believe that, in March 2009 when the S&P was at 666, the market was actually much cheaper than is generally perceived, because of the money-printing, and I do not anticipate that we will see 666 on the S&P again, in nominal terms.
In other words, they are going to print so much money that the S&P could be at, perhaps, 2000, but in real terms, it could be down below the lows of March 6, 2009. Maybe in gold terms, we could one day reach a ratio of Dow Jones to gold of 1-to-1, as we were in 1980. In other words, the Dow could be perhaps at 10,000 or 12,000, and gold could be at the same level.
That is why I am advising people to accumulate gold. Can gold have a correction? Yes, there has been a little bit too much euphoria about gold, and we may have a correction, but I do not think we are in a bubble in the price of gold. In fact, I could make a case that gold, at this level of $1400 an ounce, is cheaper than in 1999, when I look at the unfunded liability growth of the U.S., at the credit growth of the U.S., and at the household growth, and at the money printing, and at all the wealth creation that happens in China and Russia.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Frontrunning: February 25 new
Frontrunning: February 25 new
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2011 08:11 -0500
•Irish Voters Set to Take Revenge on Ruling Party (FT, Bloomberg)
•Saudi youth call for protest in solidarity with Libyan uprising (Monsters and Critics)
•Wisconsin Assembly approves plan to curb unions (Reuters)
•Special report on Glencore: The biggest company you never heard of (Reuters)... actually that would be the DTCC
•US Warns Extreme Food Prices Will Stay (FT)
•Gotta love Bloomberg headlines: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Seek $3.1 Billion Amid Improved Earnings (Bloomberg)
•More completely expected criminal fraud out of Citigroup: What Vikram Pandit Knew, and When He Knew It (Bloomberg)
•CFTC, SEC halt criminal investigations, blame lack of money (WSJ)
•Sentance Says BOE Must Tighten Now to Prevent Tough Moves Later (Bloomberg)
•House Republicans Move to End U.S. Foreclosure Aid Criticized as Harmful (Bloomberg)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2011 08:11 -0500
•Irish Voters Set to Take Revenge on Ruling Party (FT, Bloomberg)
•Saudi youth call for protest in solidarity with Libyan uprising (Monsters and Critics)
•Wisconsin Assembly approves plan to curb unions (Reuters)
•Special report on Glencore: The biggest company you never heard of (Reuters)... actually that would be the DTCC
•US Warns Extreme Food Prices Will Stay (FT)
•Gotta love Bloomberg headlines: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Seek $3.1 Billion Amid Improved Earnings (Bloomberg)
•More completely expected criminal fraud out of Citigroup: What Vikram Pandit Knew, and When He Knew It (Bloomberg)
•CFTC, SEC halt criminal investigations, blame lack of money (WSJ)
•Sentance Says BOE Must Tighten Now to Prevent Tough Moves Later (Bloomberg)
•House Republicans Move to End U.S. Foreclosure Aid Criticized as Harmful (Bloomberg)
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Straight from the Horses Mouth Folks, USA is headed to the same situation as Greece, Ireland, Etc.
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
2/24/11
Hope can be a dangerous thing. I have noticed that when talking to now retired Baby Boomers when talking about the economy there seems to be a disconnect with reality. A belief that inspite of some minor issues in relation to current events that all is well and that our country the USA would never fall victim to such scenairos we see play out day in day out of the likes of Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal etc.
This hearing and testimony occured last month. I can not recall if this event attracted any media attention or not, from the looks of the guy to the left and rear of Ron Paul who looks like he may be suffering from a minor case of down syndrome and the abundance of empty chairs I am assuming the hearing attracted little to no main stream media attention. But if you pay close attention to the testimony the message is clear. The USA is next on the chopping block for the Global banking system and we are in for some major changes.
2/24/11
Hope can be a dangerous thing. I have noticed that when talking to now retired Baby Boomers when talking about the economy there seems to be a disconnect with reality. A belief that inspite of some minor issues in relation to current events that all is well and that our country the USA would never fall victim to such scenairos we see play out day in day out of the likes of Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal etc.
This hearing and testimony occured last month. I can not recall if this event attracted any media attention or not, from the looks of the guy to the left and rear of Ron Paul who looks like he may be suffering from a minor case of down syndrome and the abundance of empty chairs I am assuming the hearing attracted little to no main stream media attention. But if you pay close attention to the testimony the message is clear. The USA is next on the chopping block for the Global banking system and we are in for some major changes.
Gaddafi's Private Plane, Reportedly Loaded With Gold, Ready To Leave For Zimbabwe As Early As Tomorrow
Gaddafi's Private Plane, Reportedly Loaded With Gold, Ready To Leave For Zimbabwe As Early As Tomorrow
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/24/2011 09:38 -0500
Activist Shareholder
The latest news from the ABC.net.au should come as no surprise to those who know all too well that one can't eat gold: "Gaddafi own private plane is loaded with gold bullion and lots of hard currency, mainly dollars, and is preparing to flee to Zimbabwe to stay there with his friend Robert Mugabe." Yet there is speculation that instead of pulling a Ben Ali, Gaddafi may pull a Hitler: "Earlier, one of Mr Gaddafi's former ministers predicted the Libyan leader will follow in Adolf Hitler's footsteps and commit suicide rather than give up power. Mustapha Abdeljalil, justice minister until he quit over the bloody crackdown on protesters, says he expects Mr Gaddafi to make good on his pledge to die on Libyan soil rather than slink into exile. "Gaddafi's time is up. He is going to go like Hitler. He is going to commit suicide," Mr Abdeljalil told Swedish media." In either case, we are skeptical that much of Libya's oil infrastructure will survive the binary outcome. As a reminder, Libya had 143.8 tonnes of gold (or Tungsten as the case may be) as of December 31, per the WGC.
More from ABC:
There are reports of gun battles taking place between forces loyal to Mr Gaddafi and his opponents in the town of Zawiyah, 50 kilometres west of Tripoli.
Mr Gaddafi no longer controls much of the east around Benghazi, where there are reports residents have jailed those they say are mercenaries and set up committees to run the city.
London-based Libyan political activist, Guma el-Gamaty, has told the ABC's Lateline that "quite reliable sources" believe Mr Gaddafi is readying to flee his country.
"Gaddifi's own private plane is loaded with gold bullion and lots of hard currency, mainly dollars, and is preparing to flee to Zimbabwe to stay there with his friend Robert Mugabe," he said.
"We think this could happen very shortly because the Security Council is threatening to impose a no-fly zone and we think that Gaddafi will try to escape before this no-fly zone is imposed, possibly by tomorrow.
"So this is the most serious story we've heard today. It's very indicative of the fact that Gaddafi is totally isolated, surrounded more or less and is probably in a state of mind where he's just concentrating and thinking about how to escape and run away and stay alive."
A noble end?
Earlier, one of Mr Gaddafi's former ministers predicted the Libyan leader will follow in Adolf Hitler's footsteps and commit suicide rather than give up power.
Mustapha Abdeljalil, justice minister until he quit over the bloody crackdown on protesters, says he expects Mr Gaddafi to make good on his pledge to die on Libyan soil rather than slink into exile.
"Gaddafi's time is up. He is going to go like Hitler. He is going to commit suicide," Mr Abdeljalil told Swedish media.
Hitler committed suicide in his bunker in Berlin in April 1945 as he witnessed the disintegration of his Nazi empire.
Mr Mr el-Gamaty says that is "a small possibility".
"We believe that probably Gaddafi doesn't really have the courage to kill himself. We think he still have this grandiose idea that he will go to Africa and rally all the Africans," he said.
"Remember he has the title of the "King of Kings" of Africa, so he thinks he can still go to Africa and rally all the Africans around him and come back to Libya and take it over again.
"But, who knows? That is also a possibility. But whether he flees, whether he kills himself, whether he gets arrested, I think he is doomed and I think his end is very imminent."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/24/2011 09:38 -0500
Activist Shareholder
The latest news from the ABC.net.au should come as no surprise to those who know all too well that one can't eat gold: "Gaddafi own private plane is loaded with gold bullion and lots of hard currency, mainly dollars, and is preparing to flee to Zimbabwe to stay there with his friend Robert Mugabe." Yet there is speculation that instead of pulling a Ben Ali, Gaddafi may pull a Hitler: "Earlier, one of Mr Gaddafi's former ministers predicted the Libyan leader will follow in Adolf Hitler's footsteps and commit suicide rather than give up power. Mustapha Abdeljalil, justice minister until he quit over the bloody crackdown on protesters, says he expects Mr Gaddafi to make good on his pledge to die on Libyan soil rather than slink into exile. "Gaddafi's time is up. He is going to go like Hitler. He is going to commit suicide," Mr Abdeljalil told Swedish media." In either case, we are skeptical that much of Libya's oil infrastructure will survive the binary outcome. As a reminder, Libya had 143.8 tonnes of gold (or Tungsten as the case may be) as of December 31, per the WGC.
More from ABC:
There are reports of gun battles taking place between forces loyal to Mr Gaddafi and his opponents in the town of Zawiyah, 50 kilometres west of Tripoli.
Mr Gaddafi no longer controls much of the east around Benghazi, where there are reports residents have jailed those they say are mercenaries and set up committees to run the city.
London-based Libyan political activist, Guma el-Gamaty, has told the ABC's Lateline that "quite reliable sources" believe Mr Gaddafi is readying to flee his country.
"Gaddifi's own private plane is loaded with gold bullion and lots of hard currency, mainly dollars, and is preparing to flee to Zimbabwe to stay there with his friend Robert Mugabe," he said.
"We think this could happen very shortly because the Security Council is threatening to impose a no-fly zone and we think that Gaddafi will try to escape before this no-fly zone is imposed, possibly by tomorrow.
"So this is the most serious story we've heard today. It's very indicative of the fact that Gaddafi is totally isolated, surrounded more or less and is probably in a state of mind where he's just concentrating and thinking about how to escape and run away and stay alive."
A noble end?
Earlier, one of Mr Gaddafi's former ministers predicted the Libyan leader will follow in Adolf Hitler's footsteps and commit suicide rather than give up power.
Mustapha Abdeljalil, justice minister until he quit over the bloody crackdown on protesters, says he expects Mr Gaddafi to make good on his pledge to die on Libyan soil rather than slink into exile.
"Gaddafi's time is up. He is going to go like Hitler. He is going to commit suicide," Mr Abdeljalil told Swedish media.
Hitler committed suicide in his bunker in Berlin in April 1945 as he witnessed the disintegration of his Nazi empire.
Mr Mr el-Gamaty says that is "a small possibility".
"We believe that probably Gaddafi doesn't really have the courage to kill himself. We think he still have this grandiose idea that he will go to Africa and rally all the Africans," he said.
"Remember he has the title of the "King of Kings" of Africa, so he thinks he can still go to Africa and rally all the Africans around him and come back to Libya and take it over again.
"But, who knows? That is also a possibility. But whether he flees, whether he kills himself, whether he gets arrested, I think he is doomed and I think his end is very imminent."
Virginia State Legislature can see where things are headed with the dollar, Silver and Gold
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
2/24/11
Hats of to the Virginia State Legislature for seeing down the road a bit. For all those who think Gold and Silver hype is just a bunch of paranoid bunk, put this in your pipe and smoke it. If the State Legislature is taking this seriously so should you. Good luck using cash to buy groceries or gas when the shit hits the fan which based on this bill and its ominous language is not too far down the road.
HOUSE JOINT RESOLUTION NO. 557
Offered January 12, 2011
Prefiled January 5, 2011
Establishing a joint subcommittee to study whether the Commonwealth should adopt a currency to serve as an alternative to the currency distributed by the Federal Reserve System in the event of a major breakdown of the Federal Reserve System. Report.
----------
Patron-- Marshall, R.G.
----------
Referred to Committee on Rules
----------
WHEREAS, the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in In re Rahrer, 140 U.S. 545, 554 (1891), that “the police power” of a State “is a power originally and always belonging to the States, not surrendered by them to the general government, nor directly restrained by the Constitution of the United States, and essentially exclusive”; and
WHEREAS, the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in Beer Company v. Massachusetts, 97 U.S. 25, 33 (1877), that the police power of the States “extend[s] to the protection of the lives, health, and property of the[ir] citizens, and to the preservation of good order”; and
WHEREAS, the protection of the lives, health, and property of Virginia’s citizens, and the preservation of good order in the Commonwealth, depend upon the maintenance of both an adequate system of governmental finance and a sound and robust private economy; and
WHEREAS, an adequate system of governmental finance and a sound and robust private economy cannot be maintained in the absence of a sound currency; and
WHEREAS, the present monetary and banking systems of the United States, centered around the Federal Reserve System, have come under ever-increasing strain during the last several years, and will be exposed to ever-increasing and predictably debilitating strain in the years to come; and
WHEREAS, many widely recognized experts predict the inevitable destruction of the Federal Reserve System’s currency through hyperinflation in the foreseeable future; and
WHEREAS, in the event of hyperinflation, depression, or other economic calamity related to the breakdown of the Federal Reserve System, for which the Commonwealth is not prepared, the Commonwealth’s governmental finances and Virginia’s private economy will be thrown into chaos, with gravely detrimental effects upon the lives, health, and property of Virginia’s citizens, and with consequences fatal to the preservation of good order throughout the Commonwealth; and
WHEREAS, Virginia can avoid or at least mitigate many of the economic, social, and political shocks to be expected to arise from hyperinflation, depression, or other economic calamity related to the breakdown of the Federal Reserve System only through the timely adoption of an alternative sound currency that the Commonwealth’s government and citizens may employ without delay in the event of the destruction of the Federal Reserve System’s currency; and
WHEREAS, “legal tender” denotes a currency that must be accepted in payment of a debt denominated in United States “dollars” if the parties have not stipulated that some alternative currency is to be used as their medium of payment or are not otherwise required to use such alternative currency; and
WHEREAS, the Federal Reserve System’s currency has been designated “legal tender” under color of Title 31, United States Code, Section 5103; and
WHEREAS, under Title 12, United States Code, § 411 and Title 31, United States Code, § 5118(b) and (c), the Federal Reserve System’s currency is not redeemable in gold or silver coin or the equivalent in bullion; and
WHEREAS, that the Federal Reserve System’s currency is not redeemable in gold or silver coin or the equivalent in bullion is being identified by more and more experts as a, if not the, major reason for the ever-increasing instability of the Federal Reserve System; and
WHEREAS, all gold and silver coins of the United States are designated “legal tender” under the aegis of Title 31, United States Code, §§ 5103 and 5112(h), and must be so designated perforce of Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 and Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 of the Constitution of the United States; and
WHEREAS, pursuant to Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 of and the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, each State must make gold and silver coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; and
WHEREAS, the Supreme Court of the United States in Lane County v. Oregon, 74 U.S. (7 Wallace) 71, 76-78 (1869), and Hagar v. Reclamation District No. 108, 111 U.S. 701, 706 (1884), has ruled that the States may adopt whatever currency they desire for the purposes of performing their sovereign governmental functions, even to the extent of adopting gold and silver coin for those purposes while refusing to employ a currency not redeemable in gold or silver coin that Congress has designated “legal tender”; and
WHEREAS, “the police power” being the primary sovereign governmental function of every State, under Lane County and Hagar every State may adopt its own currency, consisting of gold or silver, or both, whenever necessary and proper to facilitate exercises of that power in aid of the general welfare of the State and its citizens; and
WHEREAS, under the aegis of Title 31, United States Code, § 5118(d)(2), and perforce of Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 and Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 of, and the Ninth and Tenth Amendments to, the Constitution of the United States, Americans may employ whatever currency they choose to stipulate as the medium for payment of their private debts, including gold or silver, or both, to the exclusion of a currency not redeemable in gold or silver that Congress may have designated “legal tender”; and
WHEREAS, under the aegis of Title 31, United States Code, § 5118(d)(2), and perforce of Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 and Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 of, and the Ninth and Tenth Amendments to, the Constitution of the United States, the citizens of Virginia may choose to employ as the medium for payment of their private debts whatever alternative currency, consisting of gold or silver, or both, that the Commonwealth may adopt in the exercise of “the police power”; and
WHEREAS, in light of the possible instability of the Federal Reserve System, proposals for states and their citizens to adopt an alternative currency consisting of gold or silver, or both, are receiving increasing attention throughout the United States, as evidenced by bills that have been or are being introduced in the legislatures of the States of Georgia, Indiana, Montana, New Hampshire, and South Carolina; and
WHEREAS, various systems of alternative currency employing gold or silver, or both, in the form of coin or its equivalent in bullion have already proved themselves in the free market, and could either be employed by the Commonwealth directly or be used as models for a new system created by the Commonwealth to meet Virginia’s unique needs; and
WHEREAS, the adoption of an alternative currency consisting of gold or silver, or both, would not destabilize the present monetary and banking systems, the Commonwealth’s governmental finances, or Virginia’s private economy, because it would not compel or commit the Commonwealth or her citizens to employ such alternative currency to the exclusion of the Federal Reserve System’s currency immediately, but would merely make the alternative currency available, and enable it to be used in competition with and preference to the Federal Reserve System’s currency, to the degree that the need for such use became apparent; and
WHEREAS, the United States Congress, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve System have taken and are preparing to take no action to provide the United States with an alternative to the Federal Reserve System’s currency, in the likely event that the latter would be destroyed through hyperinflation; and
WHEREAS, because legislators in Virginia know or should know all of these facts; and because the General Assembly has the authority, the ability, and the duty to take timely action to deal with this situation without first seeking the approval of or assistance from Congress or any other state; and because the Constitution of Virginia provides, “That all power is vested in, and consequently derived from, the people, that magistrates are their trustees and servants, and at all times amenable to them”—for these reasons, the citizens of the Commonwealth will properly conclude that the members of the General Assembly will be primarily responsible if the Commonwealth is found to be without an alternative currency when the Federal Reserve System’s currency collapses in hyperinflation, or some other related economic calamity supervenes; now, therefore, be it
RESOLVED by the House of Delegates, the Senate concurring, That a joint subcommittee be appointed to study whether the Commonwealth should adopt a currency to serve as an alternative to the currency distributed by the Federal Reserve System in the event of a major breakdown of the Federal Reserve System.
The joint subcommittee shall consist of eight legislative members who shall be appointed as follows: five members of the House of Delegates to be appointed by the Speaker of the House of Delegates in accordance with the principles of proportional representation contained in the Rules of the House of Delegates and three members of the Senate to be appointed by the Senate Committee on Rules. The joint subcommittee shall elect a chairman and vice-chairman from among its membership.
In conducting its study, the joint subcommittee shall call or hear from such witnesses and take such other evidence as it deems appropriate and shall consider recommendations for legislation, with respect to the need, means, and schedule for establishing such an alternative currency.
Administrative staff support shall be provided by the Office of the Clerk of the House of Delegates. Legal, research, policy analysis, and other services as requested by the joint subcommittee shall be provided by the Division of Legislative Services. Technical assistance shall be provided by the Treasurer of the Commonwealth of Virginia and the Bureau of Financial Institutions of the State Corporation Commission. All other agencies of the Commonwealth shall provide assistance to the joint subcommittee for this study, upon request.
The joint subcommittee shall be limited to six meetings for the 2011 interim, and the direct costs of this study shall not exceed $12,000 without approval as set out in this resolution. Approval for unbudgeted nonmember-related expenses shall require the written authorization of the chairman of the joint subcommittee and the respective Clerk. If a companion joint resolution of the other chamber is agreed to, written authorization of both Clerks shall be required.
No recommendation of the joint subcommittee shall be adopted if a majority of the House members or a majority of the Senate members appointed to the joint subcommittee (i) vote against the recommendation and (ii) vote for the recommendation to fail notwithstanding the majority vote of the joint subcommittee.
The joint subcommittee shall complete its meetings by November 30, 2011, and the chairman shall submit to the Division of Legislative Automated Systems an executive summary of its findings and recommendations no later than the first day of the 2012 Regular Session of the General Assembly. The executive summary shall state that the joint subcommittee intends to submit to the General Assembly and the Governor a report of its findings and recommendations for publication as a House or Senate document and shall specify the date by which the report shall be submitted. The executive summary and the report shall be submitted as provided in the procedures of the Division of Legislative Automated Systems for the processing of legislative documents and reports, and shall be posted on the General Assembly’s website.
Implementation of this resolution is subject to subsequent approval and certification by the Joint Rules Committee. The Committee may approve or disapprove expenditures for this study, extend or delay the period for the conduct of the study, or authorize additional meetings during the 2011 interim.
2/24/11
Hats of to the Virginia State Legislature for seeing down the road a bit. For all those who think Gold and Silver hype is just a bunch of paranoid bunk, put this in your pipe and smoke it. If the State Legislature is taking this seriously so should you. Good luck using cash to buy groceries or gas when the shit hits the fan which based on this bill and its ominous language is not too far down the road.
HOUSE JOINT RESOLUTION NO. 557
Offered January 12, 2011
Prefiled January 5, 2011
Establishing a joint subcommittee to study whether the Commonwealth should adopt a currency to serve as an alternative to the currency distributed by the Federal Reserve System in the event of a major breakdown of the Federal Reserve System. Report.
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Patron-- Marshall, R.G.
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Referred to Committee on Rules
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WHEREAS, the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in In re Rahrer, 140 U.S. 545, 554 (1891), that “the police power” of a State “is a power originally and always belonging to the States, not surrendered by them to the general government, nor directly restrained by the Constitution of the United States, and essentially exclusive”; and
WHEREAS, the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in Beer Company v. Massachusetts, 97 U.S. 25, 33 (1877), that the police power of the States “extend[s] to the protection of the lives, health, and property of the[ir] citizens, and to the preservation of good order”; and
WHEREAS, the protection of the lives, health, and property of Virginia’s citizens, and the preservation of good order in the Commonwealth, depend upon the maintenance of both an adequate system of governmental finance and a sound and robust private economy; and
WHEREAS, an adequate system of governmental finance and a sound and robust private economy cannot be maintained in the absence of a sound currency; and
WHEREAS, the present monetary and banking systems of the United States, centered around the Federal Reserve System, have come under ever-increasing strain during the last several years, and will be exposed to ever-increasing and predictably debilitating strain in the years to come; and
WHEREAS, many widely recognized experts predict the inevitable destruction of the Federal Reserve System’s currency through hyperinflation in the foreseeable future; and
WHEREAS, in the event of hyperinflation, depression, or other economic calamity related to the breakdown of the Federal Reserve System, for which the Commonwealth is not prepared, the Commonwealth’s governmental finances and Virginia’s private economy will be thrown into chaos, with gravely detrimental effects upon the lives, health, and property of Virginia’s citizens, and with consequences fatal to the preservation of good order throughout the Commonwealth; and
WHEREAS, Virginia can avoid or at least mitigate many of the economic, social, and political shocks to be expected to arise from hyperinflation, depression, or other economic calamity related to the breakdown of the Federal Reserve System only through the timely adoption of an alternative sound currency that the Commonwealth’s government and citizens may employ without delay in the event of the destruction of the Federal Reserve System’s currency; and
WHEREAS, “legal tender” denotes a currency that must be accepted in payment of a debt denominated in United States “dollars” if the parties have not stipulated that some alternative currency is to be used as their medium of payment or are not otherwise required to use such alternative currency; and
WHEREAS, the Federal Reserve System’s currency has been designated “legal tender” under color of Title 31, United States Code, Section 5103; and
WHEREAS, under Title 12, United States Code, § 411 and Title 31, United States Code, § 5118(b) and (c), the Federal Reserve System’s currency is not redeemable in gold or silver coin or the equivalent in bullion; and
WHEREAS, that the Federal Reserve System’s currency is not redeemable in gold or silver coin or the equivalent in bullion is being identified by more and more experts as a, if not the, major reason for the ever-increasing instability of the Federal Reserve System; and
WHEREAS, all gold and silver coins of the United States are designated “legal tender” under the aegis of Title 31, United States Code, §§ 5103 and 5112(h), and must be so designated perforce of Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 and Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 of the Constitution of the United States; and
WHEREAS, pursuant to Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 of and the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, each State must make gold and silver coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; and
WHEREAS, the Supreme Court of the United States in Lane County v. Oregon, 74 U.S. (7 Wallace) 71, 76-78 (1869), and Hagar v. Reclamation District No. 108, 111 U.S. 701, 706 (1884), has ruled that the States may adopt whatever currency they desire for the purposes of performing their sovereign governmental functions, even to the extent of adopting gold and silver coin for those purposes while refusing to employ a currency not redeemable in gold or silver coin that Congress has designated “legal tender”; and
WHEREAS, “the police power” being the primary sovereign governmental function of every State, under Lane County and Hagar every State may adopt its own currency, consisting of gold or silver, or both, whenever necessary and proper to facilitate exercises of that power in aid of the general welfare of the State and its citizens; and
WHEREAS, under the aegis of Title 31, United States Code, § 5118(d)(2), and perforce of Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 and Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 of, and the Ninth and Tenth Amendments to, the Constitution of the United States, Americans may employ whatever currency they choose to stipulate as the medium for payment of their private debts, including gold or silver, or both, to the exclusion of a currency not redeemable in gold or silver that Congress may have designated “legal tender”; and
WHEREAS, under the aegis of Title 31, United States Code, § 5118(d)(2), and perforce of Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 and Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 of, and the Ninth and Tenth Amendments to, the Constitution of the United States, the citizens of Virginia may choose to employ as the medium for payment of their private debts whatever alternative currency, consisting of gold or silver, or both, that the Commonwealth may adopt in the exercise of “the police power”; and
WHEREAS, in light of the possible instability of the Federal Reserve System, proposals for states and their citizens to adopt an alternative currency consisting of gold or silver, or both, are receiving increasing attention throughout the United States, as evidenced by bills that have been or are being introduced in the legislatures of the States of Georgia, Indiana, Montana, New Hampshire, and South Carolina; and
WHEREAS, various systems of alternative currency employing gold or silver, or both, in the form of coin or its equivalent in bullion have already proved themselves in the free market, and could either be employed by the Commonwealth directly or be used as models for a new system created by the Commonwealth to meet Virginia’s unique needs; and
WHEREAS, the adoption of an alternative currency consisting of gold or silver, or both, would not destabilize the present monetary and banking systems, the Commonwealth’s governmental finances, or Virginia’s private economy, because it would not compel or commit the Commonwealth or her citizens to employ such alternative currency to the exclusion of the Federal Reserve System’s currency immediately, but would merely make the alternative currency available, and enable it to be used in competition with and preference to the Federal Reserve System’s currency, to the degree that the need for such use became apparent; and
WHEREAS, the United States Congress, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve System have taken and are preparing to take no action to provide the United States with an alternative to the Federal Reserve System’s currency, in the likely event that the latter would be destroyed through hyperinflation; and
WHEREAS, because legislators in Virginia know or should know all of these facts; and because the General Assembly has the authority, the ability, and the duty to take timely action to deal with this situation without first seeking the approval of or assistance from Congress or any other state; and because the Constitution of Virginia provides, “That all power is vested in, and consequently derived from, the people, that magistrates are their trustees and servants, and at all times amenable to them”—for these reasons, the citizens of the Commonwealth will properly conclude that the members of the General Assembly will be primarily responsible if the Commonwealth is found to be without an alternative currency when the Federal Reserve System’s currency collapses in hyperinflation, or some other related economic calamity supervenes; now, therefore, be it
RESOLVED by the House of Delegates, the Senate concurring, That a joint subcommittee be appointed to study whether the Commonwealth should adopt a currency to serve as an alternative to the currency distributed by the Federal Reserve System in the event of a major breakdown of the Federal Reserve System.
The joint subcommittee shall consist of eight legislative members who shall be appointed as follows: five members of the House of Delegates to be appointed by the Speaker of the House of Delegates in accordance with the principles of proportional representation contained in the Rules of the House of Delegates and three members of the Senate to be appointed by the Senate Committee on Rules. The joint subcommittee shall elect a chairman and vice-chairman from among its membership.
In conducting its study, the joint subcommittee shall call or hear from such witnesses and take such other evidence as it deems appropriate and shall consider recommendations for legislation, with respect to the need, means, and schedule for establishing such an alternative currency.
Administrative staff support shall be provided by the Office of the Clerk of the House of Delegates. Legal, research, policy analysis, and other services as requested by the joint subcommittee shall be provided by the Division of Legislative Services. Technical assistance shall be provided by the Treasurer of the Commonwealth of Virginia and the Bureau of Financial Institutions of the State Corporation Commission. All other agencies of the Commonwealth shall provide assistance to the joint subcommittee for this study, upon request.
The joint subcommittee shall be limited to six meetings for the 2011 interim, and the direct costs of this study shall not exceed $12,000 without approval as set out in this resolution. Approval for unbudgeted nonmember-related expenses shall require the written authorization of the chairman of the joint subcommittee and the respective Clerk. If a companion joint resolution of the other chamber is agreed to, written authorization of both Clerks shall be required.
No recommendation of the joint subcommittee shall be adopted if a majority of the House members or a majority of the Senate members appointed to the joint subcommittee (i) vote against the recommendation and (ii) vote for the recommendation to fail notwithstanding the majority vote of the joint subcommittee.
The joint subcommittee shall complete its meetings by November 30, 2011, and the chairman shall submit to the Division of Legislative Automated Systems an executive summary of its findings and recommendations no later than the first day of the 2012 Regular Session of the General Assembly. The executive summary shall state that the joint subcommittee intends to submit to the General Assembly and the Governor a report of its findings and recommendations for publication as a House or Senate document and shall specify the date by which the report shall be submitted. The executive summary and the report shall be submitted as provided in the procedures of the Division of Legislative Automated Systems for the processing of legislative documents and reports, and shall be posted on the General Assembly’s website.
Implementation of this resolution is subject to subsequent approval and certification by the Joint Rules Committee. The Committee may approve or disapprove expenditures for this study, extend or delay the period for the conduct of the study, or authorize additional meetings during the 2011 interim.
Middle East Chaos: What To Learn And What To Expect
Submitted by Giordano Bruno of Neithercorp Press
Middle East Chaos: What To Learn And What To Expect
There are many different kinds of revolution; some more effective than others. Telling the difference between a successful revolution and a failed revolution can be tricky. Often, on the surface, they look exactly the same. The secret is to set aside what we would “like” to see, and be brutally honest about what was actually accomplished in the course of the dissenting action. Has power been fully rescinded by the offending government or regime to the people, or, to yet another corrupt bureaucracy with a slightly different face? Have the puppet strings of corporate globalists been severed from your country, or do they remain strong as ever? Has ANY corrupt official actually been punished for the crimes that led to the insurgency in the first place, or, did they fly off scot-free to their million dollar villas in Ecuador, drinking mojitos in wicker recliners and watching the disaster they created unfold on CNN? Who ultimately benefited from the event?
Today, the entire Middle East is on the verge of complete destabilization and possibly civil war. Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, and other nations are experiencing a shockwave of unrest not seen since the 1970’s. Western media sources are calling it a “people’s revolt”, one which the Obama administration is heartily embracing like an old relative. But are we witnessing the democratization of the cradle of civilization, or something else entirely? How will we be affected by this tide of confusion? Instead of falling into panic and fear over the growing chaos, what can discerning Americans learn from a social implosion on the other side of the world that will help us to survive a similar occurrence here? Let’s examine some of the distinct moments that have characterized the Middle East debacle, the underlying and corrupt influences that surround them, as well as certain historical facts of the region that globalist engineers would rather we forget…
Molding The Arab World
Are globalist interests involved in the breakdown of the Middle East? Most certainly. However, this much widespread resentment and pent-up collective rage is not something that can be easily fabricated. It is far more likely that anger over the feudal governing tactics of dictators in the Arab world (many of which were installed or supported by U.S. and European interests) is very real, and has been building for quite some time. So then, why are Western governments applauding the overthrow of despots they themselves placed in power?
The Mubarak regime was the second largest recipient of U.S. financial and military aid in the world. One third of ALL publicly reported U.S. foreign aid goes to Egypt and Israel:
http://www.vaughns-1-pagers.com/politics/us-foreign-aid.htm
Without this vast military aid from the U.S., Mubarak would not have been able to maintain his 30 year reign. This is a cold hard fact. So then, why go against a leader you already have firmly in your grasp?
When the Shah of Iran (a violent madman we anointed) was overthrown by popular revolt in 1979, the U.S. government responded with vitriol and saber rattling. When Hosni Mubarak (a violent madman we anointed) was overthrown this past month, the U.S. government responded with cheers and warm regards. What was the difference between the revolution in Iran, and the revolutions all over the Middle East today? Insurance…
Like most puppet leaders and figureheads, Mubarak was an errand boy, a conduit for implementing globalist policies in Egypt. His relinquishment of power was in reality nothing of the kind, because the power was never his to give back. It is important to take note that Mubarak’s cabinet and most of the existing government and military structure remains firmly entrenched:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/egypt-swears-in-new-cabinet-retains-mubarak-era-ministers-1.345069
Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who leads the ruling military council and has been defense minister for about 20 years, took “temporary” control of Egypt after Mubarak ceded authority. Tantawi retains very strong ties to Washington D.C. and an unerring loyalty to Mubarak’s policies, which is perhaps why Barack Obama seemed so jubilant about Mubarak’s departure. In the recent and controversial Wikileaks release of private diplomatic cables, Tantawi is famously referred to as “Mubarak’s Poodle”:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/16/501364/main20032166.shtml
The key here is that globalist circles support the change in Egypt exactly because nothing will change for the citizenry. The Egyptian people will not gain true influence in the politics of their own country, and they may have even less influence over their own lives if a military infrastructure remains embedded within their government. Their entire rebellion was diluted and redirected, because they naively focused on Mubarak as the source of all their ills, instead of the corrupt system he was a mere front-man for.
What about Libya? Muammar Gaddafi, the crazy bag lady of third world dictators, was the darling of the UN in 2009 when he was nominated the head of the African Union. He was just as much a monster then as he is today, and as far as I know his human rights record has remained dismal, but then again, he was helping the globalists by paying the AU dues of numerous countries with Libyan oil money and luring them towards centralization:
http://www.saiia.org.za/diplomatic-pouch/libya-s-oil-makes-all-the-difference.html
Apparently, Gaddafi has outlived his usefulness as international bodies now fully support the rebellion in Libya.
Remember Tunisia? That fight for freedom that the mainstream media essentially ignored until it was almost over and the two decade rule of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali (another despot with a history of human rights violations who was also installed with the help of Western interests, primarily Italy) was finally overthrown? Well, now globalist proponents suddenly “love” Tunisia and are promoting it as a “model revolution”. Why? Maybe because the dastardly duo of McCain and Lieberman are in town to offer the new Tunisian government “training from the U.S. to help Tunisia’s military provide security”:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/21/us-tunisia-turkey-idUSTRE71K2YE20110221
Yikes. These are the same guys who drafted the ‘Enemy Belligerents Act’ which would allow the U.S. government to treat any American citizen as an “enemy combatant”, removing Habeas Corpus and all Constitutional rights to a fair trial. I guess the lesson to Americans and most importantly the Liberty Movement is that if they can’t beat you, they’ll try to join you, and then co-opt you. My hope is that the Tunisians will turn down the Trojan Horse offerings of sewer rats like McCain and Lieberman, but if they do, I imagine the globalists will not be quite so friendly anymore.
What is happening in the Middle East is a perfect example of the manipulation of existing dissent towards establishment ends. The surface trigger for these events is obviously the doubling of food prices across the world in the past two years (you can thank the orchestrated devaluation of western currencies for a large part of this). People have a bad tendency to weather all kinds of atrocities as long as they are fed, but once certain necessities are taken from the masses, they WILL act, usually in a violent and unfocused manner. These revolutions are, for the most part, legitimate when they begin, but are co-opted as they progress, chiefly because the cultures involved do not understand where the real threat is coming from. Is centralization of the Middle East through catastrophe the goal? Perhaps, though, when all is said and done, I think the upheaval in the Middle East is much more about the U.S., than the Muslim world…
Déjà Vu All Over Again…
For those who really want a comprehensive sense of what is happening in the Middle East and why, I suggest a look into the last major Egyptian revolution of 1952. At that time, Britain was still the preeminent western power in the Arab world, and its control of the oil supply was absolute, much like the stranglehold the U.S. has enjoyed for many decades. Oil was pegged to the British sterling and any trade in crude required a conversion to the British currency. In fact, it was often said that the British Empire’s power after World War II was entirely dependent on its reserve currency status in oil markets. Any of this beginning to sound familiar?
In 1952, a revolution against the Egyptian puppet monarchy and its British overseers burst seemingly from nowhere, led by a group called the “Free Officers Movement”. In reality, the insurrection, fed by years of corrupt Aristocratic rule, was initiated and in some cases funded by both U.S. and Soviet agencies in tandem! In 1951-1952, nationalist police officers backed by the U.S. and Russia began supporting fedayeen terrorist groups using false flag attacks to weaken the region (is this sounding even more familiar?). Interestingly, this era was the birth of the so called “Muslim Brotherhood”, a group which has suddenly resurfaced in media discussion today.
Riots spread through Cairo, King Farouk was overthrown, the British were eventually run out, and their control of the Suez Canal was lost. But the story doesn’t end there…
The British and the French wanted the Suez back (at least that’s what they claimed), for control of the Suez meant control of Middle East oil markets. A plan was initiated by the two European powers to take back the canal using an Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip as a spring board. This time, Israeli agents were used by the British to conduct false flag attacks, which were presented as a pretext for Israel to move against Egypt. The British and French followed by landing troops near Cyprus and Algeria.
The plan would have worked, except for one thing, the British were financially weak after two world wars and were completely dependent on American investment in their treasury debt. In response to the British action, the U.S. along with the UN threatened to halt investment in British debt and to stop price support of the Pound Sterling. This led to the eventual fall of the pound as the world reserve currency, and the rise of the dollar.
Official history portrays this move by the U.S., Russia, and the UN, as an attempt to undermine the long reach of the English. It is rather convenient however that the pound was dethroned just as plans for the European Union were beginning to be implemented in the early 1950’s. It seems to me that the British elites were fully aware that their futile attempts to hold onto the Middle East would result in the fall of the Pound; it was simply the British people’s turn to be taken down a few notches, and centralized. The similarities between the British Empire’s decline over Middle East oil in the 1950’s and our decline over Middle East oil today, are startling.
If history was to repeat itself, I would guess that the U.S. will soon be embroiled in political or even military operations to control the Suez, and retain its dollar peg to oil, which will illicit a negative response by international investment, causing central banks to dump their U.S. treasury investments and the dollar as a reserve currency.
Think of it as a grand theater meant to amuse only global bankers…
Energy Crisis To Strike The U.S. And Protect Globalists
An unstable Middle East benefits very few people, and that, I suppose, is the point. As we have covered here in a multitude of articles, the U.S. is on the verge of engineered economic collapse, driven mainly by the steady and purposeful devaluation of the dollar and our quickly expanding national debt. If you are a corporate central banking group seeking the death of the greenback as the world reserve currency, you face the very serious problem of avoiding immediate blame or retribution for your actions. What better way to escape the torches and pitchforks of the furious populace than to find a scapegoat, or a distraction even more terrifying than poverty?
Middle East turbulence provides the perfect smokescreen for the inflationary destruction of the dollar.
First and foremost, it hides the already skyrocketing price of energy, which was inevitable due to our devaluing currency (oil is traded primarily in dollars), but can now be blamed entirely on “Middle Eastern instability”. Already, the cost of crude has spiked to $100 a barrel, with no sign of relenting. Certainly, many Americans will now blame Egypt or Libya for their empty wallets, instead of global banks.
To add to the confusion, various agencies are feeding the MSM with a rainbow of mixed messages, which leave Americans vulnerable to uncertainty, making them far more malleable. For instance, the IMF has recently stated that the world can easily withstand $100 oil (a lie), while the International Energy Agency has stated that $100 oil would be “very very bad”, leading to a complete derailment of the global economy (which was going to occur anyway):
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/world-s-economy-can-survive-short-term-surge-in-crude-oil-prices-imf-says.html
http://www.cnbc.com//id/41714336
Social and economic disaster ANYWHERE in the world today will invariably cut the thin threads of psychological faith in our so called recovery. The system was a sham to begin with, and the quantitative easing methods of the Federal Reserve were never intended to actually “save” our financial house from collapsing, just prolong the event until they were ready to sweep away the ailing remains and offer us an IMF controlled replacement. It is designed to fail, and fail spectacularly. However, these facts will sink into the fog of history if Americans are suckered into fixating on a single area of the planet as the sole source of economic catastrophe.
Finally, if the tension spreads to other nations such as Saudi Arabia and triggers violent in-fighting, or Israel is tapped as an asset to instigate wider conflict, we could be looking at all out war on an incredible scale. This would be the distraction to top all distractions.
Is American Upheaval Next?
If crude oil continues to climb above $100 for more than a couple months, the negative effects will be undeniable. If you thought we had inflation before, just wait until gas hits $5 to $6 a gallon, and shipping costs for goods explode. This doesn’t even take into account the very real possibility that once the Middle East is fully destabilized, and certain political influences are dissolved, OPEC will completely de-peg oil from the dollar. From there, the sky is the limit on gasoline values. Already, Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) is calling for a “stagflationary” market reaction to the turmoil in Libya:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/europe-faces-difficult-balancing-act-tackling-debt-crisis-el-erian-says.html
What will be the U.S. government response to a crashing currency and climbing costs? Austerity! Although, they will probably use different terminology to describe it. The onset of cost cutting measures is becoming more visible, especially within the states, where municipal bond investment has run screaming off a cliff. Large scale protests are erupting in Wisconsin and Ohio due to state cuts designed to help them stay financially afloat:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/22/us-ohio-protests-idUSTRE71L7SR20110222
The debate here becomes two sided; do state workers deserve to have their wages or benefits cut because state governments were fiscally irresponsible? Should states continue to run up incredible deficits just to appease state workers (who many consider overpaid) in the short term? They are both meaningful positions that need to be considered, however, these two sides miss the full picture.
The fact is, state governments are beyond broke, and eventually, they will have to nix spending and entitlement programs regardless of how anyone is affected, especially in the face of unchecked inflation. State employees and all people dependent on welfare are not necessarily the culprits behind financial clear-cutting either. The argument cannot be allowed to devolve into a mindless cage match over who deserves the money, because, first, there is no money, and second, this distracts from the original cause of the distress; the corporate banking elites who instigated the disaster in the first place. Already, I can see a certain subsection of the populace lashing out wildly at figureheads and opposition parties, just like in Egypt, instead of the corrupt system and the banking moguls who built it.
If an Egyptian or Libyan style revolt, driven by blind mob mentality, takes place in the U.S., we can expect several things to occur. Normal means of communication will be disrupted; both Egypt and Libya responded to protests by shutting down all internet and cell phone traffic. Martial Law will be enacted, and Constitutional rights suspended; continuity of government programs are already in place to legally bind states into bowing to DHS and FEMA authority in the event of any “national disaster”, including a dissenting citizenry. Immediate bank closures will follow, just as occurred in Egypt, causing a lack of liquidity in local markets and panic among those who were financially unprepared. Violence will unavoidably result, giving the Department of Homeland Security the perfect excuse to implement even more controls, all for our own “safety” of course.
Some may welcome such bedlam as a sign of change. I don’t see it that way. Revolution without direction, without a plan, and without a clear understanding of the source of the problem, is meaningless. We can allow ourselves to be herded by our own rage into even more pronounced tyranny, or we can stay focused, collected, and act with purpose by organizing our communities with the objective of self sufficiency and self protection. We can work with state legislators to bring support to Tenth Amendment issues, giving them the strength to withstand an economic collapse and the ability to turn down DHS or FEMA’s “help” when the time comes. We can organize intelligently, without centralized control, or we can hand over our destinies to yet another elite group of unaccountable autocrats. As impossible as it might seem, the choice really is up to us. How we act and react in the coming months will mean the difference between a free and prosperous America, or a scorch mark in the annals of history.
Middle East Chaos: What To Learn And What To Expect
There are many different kinds of revolution; some more effective than others. Telling the difference between a successful revolution and a failed revolution can be tricky. Often, on the surface, they look exactly the same. The secret is to set aside what we would “like” to see, and be brutally honest about what was actually accomplished in the course of the dissenting action. Has power been fully rescinded by the offending government or regime to the people, or, to yet another corrupt bureaucracy with a slightly different face? Have the puppet strings of corporate globalists been severed from your country, or do they remain strong as ever? Has ANY corrupt official actually been punished for the crimes that led to the insurgency in the first place, or, did they fly off scot-free to their million dollar villas in Ecuador, drinking mojitos in wicker recliners and watching the disaster they created unfold on CNN? Who ultimately benefited from the event?
Today, the entire Middle East is on the verge of complete destabilization and possibly civil war. Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, and other nations are experiencing a shockwave of unrest not seen since the 1970’s. Western media sources are calling it a “people’s revolt”, one which the Obama administration is heartily embracing like an old relative. But are we witnessing the democratization of the cradle of civilization, or something else entirely? How will we be affected by this tide of confusion? Instead of falling into panic and fear over the growing chaos, what can discerning Americans learn from a social implosion on the other side of the world that will help us to survive a similar occurrence here? Let’s examine some of the distinct moments that have characterized the Middle East debacle, the underlying and corrupt influences that surround them, as well as certain historical facts of the region that globalist engineers would rather we forget…
Molding The Arab World
Are globalist interests involved in the breakdown of the Middle East? Most certainly. However, this much widespread resentment and pent-up collective rage is not something that can be easily fabricated. It is far more likely that anger over the feudal governing tactics of dictators in the Arab world (many of which were installed or supported by U.S. and European interests) is very real, and has been building for quite some time. So then, why are Western governments applauding the overthrow of despots they themselves placed in power?
The Mubarak regime was the second largest recipient of U.S. financial and military aid in the world. One third of ALL publicly reported U.S. foreign aid goes to Egypt and Israel:
http://www.vaughns-1-pagers.com/politics/us-foreign-aid.htm
Without this vast military aid from the U.S., Mubarak would not have been able to maintain his 30 year reign. This is a cold hard fact. So then, why go against a leader you already have firmly in your grasp?
When the Shah of Iran (a violent madman we anointed) was overthrown by popular revolt in 1979, the U.S. government responded with vitriol and saber rattling. When Hosni Mubarak (a violent madman we anointed) was overthrown this past month, the U.S. government responded with cheers and warm regards. What was the difference between the revolution in Iran, and the revolutions all over the Middle East today? Insurance…
Like most puppet leaders and figureheads, Mubarak was an errand boy, a conduit for implementing globalist policies in Egypt. His relinquishment of power was in reality nothing of the kind, because the power was never his to give back. It is important to take note that Mubarak’s cabinet and most of the existing government and military structure remains firmly entrenched:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/egypt-swears-in-new-cabinet-retains-mubarak-era-ministers-1.345069
Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who leads the ruling military council and has been defense minister for about 20 years, took “temporary” control of Egypt after Mubarak ceded authority. Tantawi retains very strong ties to Washington D.C. and an unerring loyalty to Mubarak’s policies, which is perhaps why Barack Obama seemed so jubilant about Mubarak’s departure. In the recent and controversial Wikileaks release of private diplomatic cables, Tantawi is famously referred to as “Mubarak’s Poodle”:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/16/501364/main20032166.shtml
The key here is that globalist circles support the change in Egypt exactly because nothing will change for the citizenry. The Egyptian people will not gain true influence in the politics of their own country, and they may have even less influence over their own lives if a military infrastructure remains embedded within their government. Their entire rebellion was diluted and redirected, because they naively focused on Mubarak as the source of all their ills, instead of the corrupt system he was a mere front-man for.
What about Libya? Muammar Gaddafi, the crazy bag lady of third world dictators, was the darling of the UN in 2009 when he was nominated the head of the African Union. He was just as much a monster then as he is today, and as far as I know his human rights record has remained dismal, but then again, he was helping the globalists by paying the AU dues of numerous countries with Libyan oil money and luring them towards centralization:
http://www.saiia.org.za/diplomatic-pouch/libya-s-oil-makes-all-the-difference.html
Apparently, Gaddafi has outlived his usefulness as international bodies now fully support the rebellion in Libya.
Remember Tunisia? That fight for freedom that the mainstream media essentially ignored until it was almost over and the two decade rule of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali (another despot with a history of human rights violations who was also installed with the help of Western interests, primarily Italy) was finally overthrown? Well, now globalist proponents suddenly “love” Tunisia and are promoting it as a “model revolution”. Why? Maybe because the dastardly duo of McCain and Lieberman are in town to offer the new Tunisian government “training from the U.S. to help Tunisia’s military provide security”:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/21/us-tunisia-turkey-idUSTRE71K2YE20110221
Yikes. These are the same guys who drafted the ‘Enemy Belligerents Act’ which would allow the U.S. government to treat any American citizen as an “enemy combatant”, removing Habeas Corpus and all Constitutional rights to a fair trial. I guess the lesson to Americans and most importantly the Liberty Movement is that if they can’t beat you, they’ll try to join you, and then co-opt you. My hope is that the Tunisians will turn down the Trojan Horse offerings of sewer rats like McCain and Lieberman, but if they do, I imagine the globalists will not be quite so friendly anymore.
What is happening in the Middle East is a perfect example of the manipulation of existing dissent towards establishment ends. The surface trigger for these events is obviously the doubling of food prices across the world in the past two years (you can thank the orchestrated devaluation of western currencies for a large part of this). People have a bad tendency to weather all kinds of atrocities as long as they are fed, but once certain necessities are taken from the masses, they WILL act, usually in a violent and unfocused manner. These revolutions are, for the most part, legitimate when they begin, but are co-opted as they progress, chiefly because the cultures involved do not understand where the real threat is coming from. Is centralization of the Middle East through catastrophe the goal? Perhaps, though, when all is said and done, I think the upheaval in the Middle East is much more about the U.S., than the Muslim world…
Déjà Vu All Over Again…
For those who really want a comprehensive sense of what is happening in the Middle East and why, I suggest a look into the last major Egyptian revolution of 1952. At that time, Britain was still the preeminent western power in the Arab world, and its control of the oil supply was absolute, much like the stranglehold the U.S. has enjoyed for many decades. Oil was pegged to the British sterling and any trade in crude required a conversion to the British currency. In fact, it was often said that the British Empire’s power after World War II was entirely dependent on its reserve currency status in oil markets. Any of this beginning to sound familiar?
In 1952, a revolution against the Egyptian puppet monarchy and its British overseers burst seemingly from nowhere, led by a group called the “Free Officers Movement”. In reality, the insurrection, fed by years of corrupt Aristocratic rule, was initiated and in some cases funded by both U.S. and Soviet agencies in tandem! In 1951-1952, nationalist police officers backed by the U.S. and Russia began supporting fedayeen terrorist groups using false flag attacks to weaken the region (is this sounding even more familiar?). Interestingly, this era was the birth of the so called “Muslim Brotherhood”, a group which has suddenly resurfaced in media discussion today.
Riots spread through Cairo, King Farouk was overthrown, the British were eventually run out, and their control of the Suez Canal was lost. But the story doesn’t end there…
The British and the French wanted the Suez back (at least that’s what they claimed), for control of the Suez meant control of Middle East oil markets. A plan was initiated by the two European powers to take back the canal using an Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip as a spring board. This time, Israeli agents were used by the British to conduct false flag attacks, which were presented as a pretext for Israel to move against Egypt. The British and French followed by landing troops near Cyprus and Algeria.
The plan would have worked, except for one thing, the British were financially weak after two world wars and were completely dependent on American investment in their treasury debt. In response to the British action, the U.S. along with the UN threatened to halt investment in British debt and to stop price support of the Pound Sterling. This led to the eventual fall of the pound as the world reserve currency, and the rise of the dollar.
Official history portrays this move by the U.S., Russia, and the UN, as an attempt to undermine the long reach of the English. It is rather convenient however that the pound was dethroned just as plans for the European Union were beginning to be implemented in the early 1950’s. It seems to me that the British elites were fully aware that their futile attempts to hold onto the Middle East would result in the fall of the Pound; it was simply the British people’s turn to be taken down a few notches, and centralized. The similarities between the British Empire’s decline over Middle East oil in the 1950’s and our decline over Middle East oil today, are startling.
If history was to repeat itself, I would guess that the U.S. will soon be embroiled in political or even military operations to control the Suez, and retain its dollar peg to oil, which will illicit a negative response by international investment, causing central banks to dump their U.S. treasury investments and the dollar as a reserve currency.
Think of it as a grand theater meant to amuse only global bankers…
Energy Crisis To Strike The U.S. And Protect Globalists
An unstable Middle East benefits very few people, and that, I suppose, is the point. As we have covered here in a multitude of articles, the U.S. is on the verge of engineered economic collapse, driven mainly by the steady and purposeful devaluation of the dollar and our quickly expanding national debt. If you are a corporate central banking group seeking the death of the greenback as the world reserve currency, you face the very serious problem of avoiding immediate blame or retribution for your actions. What better way to escape the torches and pitchforks of the furious populace than to find a scapegoat, or a distraction even more terrifying than poverty?
Middle East turbulence provides the perfect smokescreen for the inflationary destruction of the dollar.
First and foremost, it hides the already skyrocketing price of energy, which was inevitable due to our devaluing currency (oil is traded primarily in dollars), but can now be blamed entirely on “Middle Eastern instability”. Already, the cost of crude has spiked to $100 a barrel, with no sign of relenting. Certainly, many Americans will now blame Egypt or Libya for their empty wallets, instead of global banks.
To add to the confusion, various agencies are feeding the MSM with a rainbow of mixed messages, which leave Americans vulnerable to uncertainty, making them far more malleable. For instance, the IMF has recently stated that the world can easily withstand $100 oil (a lie), while the International Energy Agency has stated that $100 oil would be “very very bad”, leading to a complete derailment of the global economy (which was going to occur anyway):
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-22/world-s-economy-can-survive-short-term-surge-in-crude-oil-prices-imf-says.html
http://www.cnbc.com//id/41714336
Social and economic disaster ANYWHERE in the world today will invariably cut the thin threads of psychological faith in our so called recovery. The system was a sham to begin with, and the quantitative easing methods of the Federal Reserve were never intended to actually “save” our financial house from collapsing, just prolong the event until they were ready to sweep away the ailing remains and offer us an IMF controlled replacement. It is designed to fail, and fail spectacularly. However, these facts will sink into the fog of history if Americans are suckered into fixating on a single area of the planet as the sole source of economic catastrophe.
Finally, if the tension spreads to other nations such as Saudi Arabia and triggers violent in-fighting, or Israel is tapped as an asset to instigate wider conflict, we could be looking at all out war on an incredible scale. This would be the distraction to top all distractions.
Is American Upheaval Next?
If crude oil continues to climb above $100 for more than a couple months, the negative effects will be undeniable. If you thought we had inflation before, just wait until gas hits $5 to $6 a gallon, and shipping costs for goods explode. This doesn’t even take into account the very real possibility that once the Middle East is fully destabilized, and certain political influences are dissolved, OPEC will completely de-peg oil from the dollar. From there, the sky is the limit on gasoline values. Already, Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) is calling for a “stagflationary” market reaction to the turmoil in Libya:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/europe-faces-difficult-balancing-act-tackling-debt-crisis-el-erian-says.html
What will be the U.S. government response to a crashing currency and climbing costs? Austerity! Although, they will probably use different terminology to describe it. The onset of cost cutting measures is becoming more visible, especially within the states, where municipal bond investment has run screaming off a cliff. Large scale protests are erupting in Wisconsin and Ohio due to state cuts designed to help them stay financially afloat:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/22/us-ohio-protests-idUSTRE71L7SR20110222
The debate here becomes two sided; do state workers deserve to have their wages or benefits cut because state governments were fiscally irresponsible? Should states continue to run up incredible deficits just to appease state workers (who many consider overpaid) in the short term? They are both meaningful positions that need to be considered, however, these two sides miss the full picture.
The fact is, state governments are beyond broke, and eventually, they will have to nix spending and entitlement programs regardless of how anyone is affected, especially in the face of unchecked inflation. State employees and all people dependent on welfare are not necessarily the culprits behind financial clear-cutting either. The argument cannot be allowed to devolve into a mindless cage match over who deserves the money, because, first, there is no money, and second, this distracts from the original cause of the distress; the corporate banking elites who instigated the disaster in the first place. Already, I can see a certain subsection of the populace lashing out wildly at figureheads and opposition parties, just like in Egypt, instead of the corrupt system and the banking moguls who built it.
If an Egyptian or Libyan style revolt, driven by blind mob mentality, takes place in the U.S., we can expect several things to occur. Normal means of communication will be disrupted; both Egypt and Libya responded to protests by shutting down all internet and cell phone traffic. Martial Law will be enacted, and Constitutional rights suspended; continuity of government programs are already in place to legally bind states into bowing to DHS and FEMA authority in the event of any “national disaster”, including a dissenting citizenry. Immediate bank closures will follow, just as occurred in Egypt, causing a lack of liquidity in local markets and panic among those who were financially unprepared. Violence will unavoidably result, giving the Department of Homeland Security the perfect excuse to implement even more controls, all for our own “safety” of course.
Some may welcome such bedlam as a sign of change. I don’t see it that way. Revolution without direction, without a plan, and without a clear understanding of the source of the problem, is meaningless. We can allow ourselves to be herded by our own rage into even more pronounced tyranny, or we can stay focused, collected, and act with purpose by organizing our communities with the objective of self sufficiency and self protection. We can work with state legislators to bring support to Tenth Amendment issues, giving them the strength to withstand an economic collapse and the ability to turn down DHS or FEMA’s “help” when the time comes. We can organize intelligently, without centralized control, or we can hand over our destinies to yet another elite group of unaccountable autocrats. As impossible as it might seem, the choice really is up to us. How we act and react in the coming months will mean the difference between a free and prosperous America, or a scorch mark in the annals of history.
Frontrunning: February 24
Frontrunning: February 24
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/24/2011 07:59 -0500
•Gadhafi Flails as Libya Splinters (WSJ)
•As reported on Zero Hedge two days ago... Libya placed billions of dollars at U.S. banks (Reuters)
•Bullard Is ‘Bellwether’ as Fed Weighs Duration of Asset Buying (BusinessWeek)
•Is Stevie Cohen the Feds' Moby Dick? (Reuters)
•Those delusionary brits...Miles Says BOE Outlook Warrants ‘Very Gradual’ Rate Increase (BusinessWeek)
•Bonuses on Wall Street Declined 8% in 2010, N.Y.'s DiNapoli Says (Bloomberg) The average Wall Street employee took home a cash bonus of $128,530 in 2010
•Fleeing Egyptians Tell of Qaddafi's `Bloodbath' Across Libya (Bloomberg)
•Senator Wyden's Son Starts Hedge Fund After D.E. Shaw Internship (Bloomberg)
•Indian Rally Raises Pressure on Singh (FT)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/24/2011 07:59 -0500
•Gadhafi Flails as Libya Splinters (WSJ)
•As reported on Zero Hedge two days ago... Libya placed billions of dollars at U.S. banks (Reuters)
•Bullard Is ‘Bellwether’ as Fed Weighs Duration of Asset Buying (BusinessWeek)
•Is Stevie Cohen the Feds' Moby Dick? (Reuters)
•Those delusionary brits...Miles Says BOE Outlook Warrants ‘Very Gradual’ Rate Increase (BusinessWeek)
•Bonuses on Wall Street Declined 8% in 2010, N.Y.'s DiNapoli Says (Bloomberg) The average Wall Street employee took home a cash bonus of $128,530 in 2010
•Fleeing Egyptians Tell of Qaddafi's `Bloodbath' Across Libya (Bloomberg)
•Senator Wyden's Son Starts Hedge Fund After D.E. Shaw Internship (Bloomberg)
•Indian Rally Raises Pressure on Singh (FT)
Eric Sprott: "There Is No More Silver Left"
Eric Sprott: "There Is No More Silver Left"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 15:05 -0500
Eric Sprott
Eric Sprott made an appearance at Casey Research Gold and Resource Summit where in addition to providing a succinct summary of all his monthly letters from the past year, whose forecasts are all gradually panning out, he spoke about the prospects for gold, and particularly silver. We will leave it to readers to parse through the brief must watch clip, but here is the punchling for those wondering why increasingly more distributors are reporting indefinite lack of physical silver inventory: "There's $22 billion of silver available in the world, of which the ETFs already own half, and between you guys and us we probably own the other half... Which means there's nothing left."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 15:05 -0500
Eric Sprott
Eric Sprott made an appearance at Casey Research Gold and Resource Summit where in addition to providing a succinct summary of all his monthly letters from the past year, whose forecasts are all gradually panning out, he spoke about the prospects for gold, and particularly silver. We will leave it to readers to parse through the brief must watch clip, but here is the punchling for those wondering why increasingly more distributors are reporting indefinite lack of physical silver inventory: "There's $22 billion of silver available in the world, of which the ETFs already own half, and between you guys and us we probably own the other half... Which means there's nothing left."
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
And Wow: Fed's Hoenig Says United States Has "Deeply Undermined Free-Market Capitalism"
And Wow: Fed's Hoenig Says United States Has "Deeply Undermined Free-Market Capitalism"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 12:33 -0500
The Fed mutiny has arrived:
•HOENIG SAYS U.S. HAS `DEEPLY' UNDERMINED FREE-MARKET CAPITALISM
•HOENIG WARNS OF ESCALATING SERIES OF CRISES WITH RISING COSTS
•HOENIG: LARGE FINANCIAL FIRMS CAN EXPECT BAILOUTS IN FUTURE
•HOENIG SAYS BIG FINANCIAL FIRMS MUST NOT HOLD ECONOMY `HOSTAGE'
•HOENIG: LARGE FIRMS WERE `GAMING' CAPITAL STANDARDS PRE-CRISIS
•HOENIG:BIG FIRMS `HAVE SIGNIFICANT INCENTIVES' TO INCREASE RISK
•HOENIG: TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL FIRMS POSE `GREATEST RISK' TO ECONOMY
•HOENIG SAYS BIG FINANCIAL FIRMS ENJOY `HUGE' FUNDING ADVANTAGE
And the last one:
•FED'S HOENIG SAYS `HISTORY IS ON MY SIDE'
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 12:33 -0500
The Fed mutiny has arrived:
•HOENIG SAYS U.S. HAS `DEEPLY' UNDERMINED FREE-MARKET CAPITALISM
•HOENIG WARNS OF ESCALATING SERIES OF CRISES WITH RISING COSTS
•HOENIG: LARGE FINANCIAL FIRMS CAN EXPECT BAILOUTS IN FUTURE
•HOENIG SAYS BIG FINANCIAL FIRMS MUST NOT HOLD ECONOMY `HOSTAGE'
•HOENIG: LARGE FIRMS WERE `GAMING' CAPITAL STANDARDS PRE-CRISIS
•HOENIG:BIG FIRMS `HAVE SIGNIFICANT INCENTIVES' TO INCREASE RISK
•HOENIG: TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL FIRMS POSE `GREATEST RISK' TO ECONOMY
•HOENIG SAYS BIG FINANCIAL FIRMS ENJOY `HUGE' FUNDING ADVANTAGE
And the last one:
•FED'S HOENIG SAYS `HISTORY IS ON MY SIDE'
Geithner Says Not To Worry About Surging Oil Prices: "Central Banks Have A Lot Of Experience In Managing These Things"
Geithner Says Not To Worry About Surging Oil Prices: "Central Banks Have A Lot Of Experience In Managing These Things"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 11:51 -0500
You really can't make this shit up: "The economy is in a much stronger position to handle” rising oil prices, Tim Geithner said today during a Bloomberg Breakfast in Washington. “Central banks have a lot of experience in managing these things." We are, all of us, now doomed.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 11:51 -0500
You really can't make this shit up: "The economy is in a much stronger position to handle” rising oil prices, Tim Geithner said today during a Bloomberg Breakfast in Washington. “Central banks have a lot of experience in managing these things." We are, all of us, now doomed.
Brent Passes $110
Brent Passes $110
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 10:19 -0500
CrudeGreat Depressionrecovery
A $10 move in a week is just what the doctor ordered to destroy the last trace of surreality in the whole "economic recovery" story. At this rate we will take out all time high crude prices by mid March. As we have been saying since December, a rapid move in oil will undo years of carefully planned propaganda and money printing. Yet the weakness that "nobody could have possibly predicted" is just as we had forecast: global and US weakness in late February/March, market swoons in March/April (as per DeMark's repeat appearance), Fed releases early indications of QE3 in May. In the meantime, we also get a war as a bonus to boost the US military-defense industrial complex. Pretty much a rerun of the first great depression to the dot.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 10:19 -0500
CrudeGreat Depressionrecovery
A $10 move in a week is just what the doctor ordered to destroy the last trace of surreality in the whole "economic recovery" story. At this rate we will take out all time high crude prices by mid March. As we have been saying since December, a rapid move in oil will undo years of carefully planned propaganda and money printing. Yet the weakness that "nobody could have possibly predicted" is just as we had forecast: global and US weakness in late February/March, market swoons in March/April (as per DeMark's repeat appearance), Fed releases early indications of QE3 in May. In the meantime, we also get a war as a bonus to boost the US military-defense industrial complex. Pretty much a rerun of the first great depression to the dot.
Gaddafi Son Says Army Will Protect Oil Infrastructure, Blames Al-Qaeda For Carpet Bombing As 10,000 Now Reported Dead
Gaddafi Son Says Army Will Protect Oil Infrastructure, Blames Al-Qaeda For Carpet Bombing As 10,000 Now Reported Dead
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 14:00 -0500
AfghanistanItalyNewspaperRealityTwitter
And so we go from one lunatic to another. In an "exclusive interview" with the FT, Muammar Gadaffi's son, al-Saadi, told the newspaper, whose parent Pearson PLC is 3% owner by the Libyan Sovereign Wealth Fund, "made it clear that he believed any such new regime would still include his father. “My father would stay as the big father who advises,” he told the Financial Times, adding that direct administrative powers should be handed over to a new generation." And further confirming the soon to be deposed ruler's break with reality, were accusations that the reason why the Libyan airforce has been shooting at protestors over the past week, was to protect the country from "thousands of al-Qaeda" infiltrators who had taken over the eastern part of the country. Touching on a topic discussed yesterday, namely that the Gaddafi regime may engage in sabotage against its oil industry, al-Saadi “said that the army would be sent to guard facilities if necessary. The army is still very strong,” he said. “If we hear anything, we will send some battalions. When people see the army, they will be afraid.” In other words, expect to hear news of major disruptions in the country's oil infrastructure which will promptly be blamed on al-Qaeda by the Gaddafis. And going back to reality, we read that the death toll in Libya has surpassed 10,000 people.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2011 14:00 -0500
AfghanistanItalyNewspaperRealityTwitter
And so we go from one lunatic to another. In an "exclusive interview" with the FT, Muammar Gadaffi's son, al-Saadi, told the newspaper, whose parent Pearson PLC is 3% owner by the Libyan Sovereign Wealth Fund, "made it clear that he believed any such new regime would still include his father. “My father would stay as the big father who advises,” he told the Financial Times, adding that direct administrative powers should be handed over to a new generation." And further confirming the soon to be deposed ruler's break with reality, were accusations that the reason why the Libyan airforce has been shooting at protestors over the past week, was to protect the country from "thousands of al-Qaeda" infiltrators who had taken over the eastern part of the country. Touching on a topic discussed yesterday, namely that the Gaddafi regime may engage in sabotage against its oil industry, al-Saadi “said that the army would be sent to guard facilities if necessary. The army is still very strong,” he said. “If we hear anything, we will send some battalions. When people see the army, they will be afraid.” In other words, expect to hear news of major disruptions in the country's oil infrastructure which will promptly be blamed on al-Qaeda by the Gaddafis. And going back to reality, we read that the death toll in Libya has surpassed 10,000 people.
Korean Bank Run Spreading: Eighth Bank Closes Following "Massive Withdrawals"
Korean Bank Run Spreading: Eighth Bank Closes Following "Massive Withdrawals"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2011 19:28 -0500
Bank RunFederal Deposit Insurance CorporationKIM
The quietest bank run that has so far completely evaded mainstream attention, that of Korea, is spreading, and an eighth bank has now shuttered after "Domin Bank, a savings bank with a capital adequacy ratio below 5 percent, voluntarily decided yesterday to suspend its operations temporarily because of massive withdrawals." As JoongAng reports: "The decision took both depositors and financial regulators by surprise since it was the first time that a local bank shut its doors on its own." Apparently the courageous decision by the Financial Services Chairman Kim Seok-dong to deposit $17,864 in a troubled bank has not done much if anything to prevent the locals from realizing that their banking system is built on a house of cards.
From JoongAng Daily:
Domin Bank, which has six branches in Gangwon, was placed on a watch list last week by the Financial Services Commission. The move triggered a bank run on Domin Bank.
According to Domin Bank, deposits amounting 31.8 billion won ($28.2 million) were withdrawn since last Thursday, including 18.8 billion won on Monday.
The news of Domin Bank’s temporary closure came as FSC Chairman Kim Seok-dong was visiting Mokpo, South Jeolla, where recently suspended Bohae Savings Bank is located.
Seok-dong unhappy:
“This savings bank was supposed to submit a management improvement plan to the FSC by Feb. 24,” said Kim. “We will now have to review whether [the closure] is even legally O.K.”
More classic quotes follow:
Bae Joon-soo, senior FSC deputy director, said, “I think it is legally and morally wrong for a financial firm to do such a thing.”
Now we get it: according to the banking cartel's ethical standard it is "legally and morally wrong" for a bank to admit it is insolvent. Perhaps if America had made this clear 2 years ago, we could have spared ourselves two years of fingerpointing and fictitious lawsuits. After all, say what you will about the tenets of banker national socialism, at least it's an ethos.
The financial regulator and the Federation of Savings Banks failed to persuade Domin Bank to resume its operation yesterday.
The bank in notices posted on the doors of every branch said that it had taken the move “as a means to soothe the crisis involving massive withdrawals.”
The notice continued, “We will resume operation after we are reborn as a sound savings bank by increasing our paid-in capital to achieve a capital adequacy ratio of 8 percent.”
We repeat our appeal for the FDIC and Treasury to send our crack fraud and book cooking team to guarantee to the Koreans that their bankrupt banks are perfectly ok before this thing gets really out of control, and migrates to China, where a billion man bank run will be a little harder to keep under wraps.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2011 19:28 -0500
Bank RunFederal Deposit Insurance CorporationKIM
The quietest bank run that has so far completely evaded mainstream attention, that of Korea, is spreading, and an eighth bank has now shuttered after "Domin Bank, a savings bank with a capital adequacy ratio below 5 percent, voluntarily decided yesterday to suspend its operations temporarily because of massive withdrawals." As JoongAng reports: "The decision took both depositors and financial regulators by surprise since it was the first time that a local bank shut its doors on its own." Apparently the courageous decision by the Financial Services Chairman Kim Seok-dong to deposit $17,864 in a troubled bank has not done much if anything to prevent the locals from realizing that their banking system is built on a house of cards.
From JoongAng Daily:
Domin Bank, which has six branches in Gangwon, was placed on a watch list last week by the Financial Services Commission. The move triggered a bank run on Domin Bank.
According to Domin Bank, deposits amounting 31.8 billion won ($28.2 million) were withdrawn since last Thursday, including 18.8 billion won on Monday.
The news of Domin Bank’s temporary closure came as FSC Chairman Kim Seok-dong was visiting Mokpo, South Jeolla, where recently suspended Bohae Savings Bank is located.
Seok-dong unhappy:
“This savings bank was supposed to submit a management improvement plan to the FSC by Feb. 24,” said Kim. “We will now have to review whether [the closure] is even legally O.K.”
More classic quotes follow:
Bae Joon-soo, senior FSC deputy director, said, “I think it is legally and morally wrong for a financial firm to do such a thing.”
Now we get it: according to the banking cartel's ethical standard it is "legally and morally wrong" for a bank to admit it is insolvent. Perhaps if America had made this clear 2 years ago, we could have spared ourselves two years of fingerpointing and fictitious lawsuits. After all, say what you will about the tenets of banker national socialism, at least it's an ethos.
The financial regulator and the Federation of Savings Banks failed to persuade Domin Bank to resume its operation yesterday.
The bank in notices posted on the doors of every branch said that it had taken the move “as a means to soothe the crisis involving massive withdrawals.”
The notice continued, “We will resume operation after we are reborn as a sound savings bank by increasing our paid-in capital to achieve a capital adequacy ratio of 8 percent.”
We repeat our appeal for the FDIC and Treasury to send our crack fraud and book cooking team to guarantee to the Koreans that their bankrupt banks are perfectly ok before this thing gets really out of control, and migrates to China, where a billion man bank run will be a little harder to keep under wraps.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Federal Reserve Board
More and more people are popping out of the woodwork these days offering startling new revelations about the crime family that runs the Federal Reserve Board. Here are just a few of their crimes: the creation of the Red Brigades and Baader Meinhof Group to assassinate politicians like Italy’s Aldo Moro, the use of falsified international treaties to seize control of global finance, the replacement of the real Dalai Lama with a stooge and plans to induce massive global starvation this spring and summer.
The reason more people are willing to come forth and testify is that they finally see the Illuminati, or gang (committee) of 300, Khazarian Satanists or whatever label you choose to use for them, as headed for a final takedown. Perhaps that explains the latest rash of attempts to bribe members of the White Dragon Society, including this writer.
The Satan worshipping owners of the Federal Reserve Board, however, are extremely fanatical about their religion and many continue to believe their plans are pre-ordained and unstoppable. Their campaign to overthrow governments world-wide, starting in the Middle-East is part of a plan to vastly hike oil and food prices in an effort to engineer famine and war by late spring or summer.
Here is some of what self-described Olympians (David Rockefeller has referred to himself as “Zeus” in the past) or committee of 300 members including Joseph Rattinger, John McClay, Fred Potter and Alexander King, among of others, have to say about their activities:
“When Queen Elizabeth II was enthroned, the ceremony was presided over by a committee of 300 (hereafter “member.”) leader.”
“We do not believe in God and worship Lucifer.”
“Whenever a US President speaks a member can be seen in the background.”
“The Club of Rome works for us.”
“We want a small and better world without useless eaters.”
“Industrial progress leads to population growth so we are dedicated to the destruction of the industrial state.”
“We remove any leader who, like Kennedy, stands in our way.”
“We were formed by an alliance between the Anglo Financiers and the Black Nobility of London, Venice and Genoa.”
“We have a chapter in Washington.”
“Interpol, Mossad and the FSB all work for David Rockefeller.”
“Henry (Heinz) Kissinger is one of our most important agents; he belongs to the Grand Alpine Lodge in Switzerland that controls the Italian P2 lodge.”
In a typical move by committee monster Kissinger he told Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto “We will make a horrible example of you if you continue with your nation building.” Bhutto was later judicially assassinated by committee member General Zia-ul-Hak. The same people killed his daughter Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.
Prime Minister Aldo Moro was killed on the orders of committee member Bettino Craxi, who created the Red Brigades in order to have an enemy required to justify fascism.
This information was given to the White Dragon by committee members who thought it would convince us they were invincible and that attempts to bring them to justice would fail. They say their members hide in public places like 10 Downing St., Congress and the White House.
The US House of Representatives Sub-Committee on Energy is one of their main strongholds in Washington.
Meanwhile a Japanese agent who has sub-contracted for David Rockefeller and the committee had his own startling revelations.
According to this agent, the Dalai Lama was replaced as a young child with a committee selected candidate. He says the Tibetans of the Dalai’s clan, together with members of the Tibetan Royal family were trying to remove this impostor in order to liberate world Buddhist organizations from committee control.
The head of Japan’s largest Buddhist Lay organization, Son Tae Chuck (Japanese name Daisaku Ikeda) is in a coma and his organization, which controls much of the Japanese police establishment, was also about to be liberated from committee control, he said.
Also, committee agent Dr. Nakamatsu is trying to take over the cult Kofuku no Kagaku (Happy Science). Happy Science funnels money to the advertising giant Dentsu. Dentsu is used by the CIA in Japan as part of their media control grid.
The two top committee agents in Japan now were Nobuo Tanaka from the International Energy Agency:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobuo_Tanaka
and Isao Iijima, arch-traitor Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s former secretary. They are in control of distribution of dollars and yen created by the Bank of Japan. Korean pretending to be Japanese Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara is also a Rockefeller flunky, the agent said. These traitors will all be hearing from the White Dragon society soon.
The agent had many more revelations that we will keep from the public record at present in order not to impede ongoing criminal investigations.
We can also now report the White Dragon Society has obtained copies of treaties such as Schweitzer Agreement and other international treaties that prove the so-called owners of the Federal Reserve Board and the US dollar printing machine have been using fraudulently altered versions of these treaties to justify their stranglehold on global financial transactions.
The same scumbags have been trying to take over various Middle-Eastern nations in order to loot their central banks, jack up the price of oil and start World War 3. They will be stopped. If any mass starvation begins, it will signal the start of a total purge of all committee members and their flunkies.
Representatives of a Southern Chinese power broker, who claimed connections with the Federal Reserve Board, also came to offer this writer an astronomical bribe last week. There is an Intaglia printing press in Southern China that prints US dollars and clearly the owners of this printing press wish to maintain their control over this particular dollar printing subsidiary. This can be arranged provided the Southern Chinese faction ceases to cooperate with the Satanist committee and their agents. No bribes, however, will be accepted by the White Dragon.
The White Dragon Societies calls for the creation of a new meritocratically staffed organization to replace the Federal Reserve Board and the IMF to take over the issuance of US dollars. It also wants a global economic planning agency to be set up to carry out projects, such as ending poverty, stopping environmental destruction, greening deserts, exploring space etc.
The Rothchilds and European Royal Bloodlines, for their part, are asking for a sovereign island with two UN seats and unlimited funding in exchange for their cooperation. This is something the White Dragon can live with
The reason more people are willing to come forth and testify is that they finally see the Illuminati, or gang (committee) of 300, Khazarian Satanists or whatever label you choose to use for them, as headed for a final takedown. Perhaps that explains the latest rash of attempts to bribe members of the White Dragon Society, including this writer.
The Satan worshipping owners of the Federal Reserve Board, however, are extremely fanatical about their religion and many continue to believe their plans are pre-ordained and unstoppable. Their campaign to overthrow governments world-wide, starting in the Middle-East is part of a plan to vastly hike oil and food prices in an effort to engineer famine and war by late spring or summer.
Here is some of what self-described Olympians (David Rockefeller has referred to himself as “Zeus” in the past) or committee of 300 members including Joseph Rattinger, John McClay, Fred Potter and Alexander King, among of others, have to say about their activities:
“When Queen Elizabeth II was enthroned, the ceremony was presided over by a committee of 300 (hereafter “member.”) leader.”
“We do not believe in God and worship Lucifer.”
“Whenever a US President speaks a member can be seen in the background.”
“The Club of Rome works for us.”
“We want a small and better world without useless eaters.”
“Industrial progress leads to population growth so we are dedicated to the destruction of the industrial state.”
“We remove any leader who, like Kennedy, stands in our way.”
“We were formed by an alliance between the Anglo Financiers and the Black Nobility of London, Venice and Genoa.”
“We have a chapter in Washington.”
“Interpol, Mossad and the FSB all work for David Rockefeller.”
“Henry (Heinz) Kissinger is one of our most important agents; he belongs to the Grand Alpine Lodge in Switzerland that controls the Italian P2 lodge.”
In a typical move by committee monster Kissinger he told Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto “We will make a horrible example of you if you continue with your nation building.” Bhutto was later judicially assassinated by committee member General Zia-ul-Hak. The same people killed his daughter Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.
Prime Minister Aldo Moro was killed on the orders of committee member Bettino Craxi, who created the Red Brigades in order to have an enemy required to justify fascism.
This information was given to the White Dragon by committee members who thought it would convince us they were invincible and that attempts to bring them to justice would fail. They say their members hide in public places like 10 Downing St., Congress and the White House.
The US House of Representatives Sub-Committee on Energy is one of their main strongholds in Washington.
Meanwhile a Japanese agent who has sub-contracted for David Rockefeller and the committee had his own startling revelations.
According to this agent, the Dalai Lama was replaced as a young child with a committee selected candidate. He says the Tibetans of the Dalai’s clan, together with members of the Tibetan Royal family were trying to remove this impostor in order to liberate world Buddhist organizations from committee control.
The head of Japan’s largest Buddhist Lay organization, Son Tae Chuck (Japanese name Daisaku Ikeda) is in a coma and his organization, which controls much of the Japanese police establishment, was also about to be liberated from committee control, he said.
Also, committee agent Dr. Nakamatsu is trying to take over the cult Kofuku no Kagaku (Happy Science). Happy Science funnels money to the advertising giant Dentsu. Dentsu is used by the CIA in Japan as part of their media control grid.
The two top committee agents in Japan now were Nobuo Tanaka from the International Energy Agency:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobuo_Tanaka
and Isao Iijima, arch-traitor Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s former secretary. They are in control of distribution of dollars and yen created by the Bank of Japan. Korean pretending to be Japanese Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara is also a Rockefeller flunky, the agent said. These traitors will all be hearing from the White Dragon society soon.
The agent had many more revelations that we will keep from the public record at present in order not to impede ongoing criminal investigations.
We can also now report the White Dragon Society has obtained copies of treaties such as Schweitzer Agreement and other international treaties that prove the so-called owners of the Federal Reserve Board and the US dollar printing machine have been using fraudulently altered versions of these treaties to justify their stranglehold on global financial transactions.
The same scumbags have been trying to take over various Middle-Eastern nations in order to loot their central banks, jack up the price of oil and start World War 3. They will be stopped. If any mass starvation begins, it will signal the start of a total purge of all committee members and their flunkies.
Representatives of a Southern Chinese power broker, who claimed connections with the Federal Reserve Board, also came to offer this writer an astronomical bribe last week. There is an Intaglia printing press in Southern China that prints US dollars and clearly the owners of this printing press wish to maintain their control over this particular dollar printing subsidiary. This can be arranged provided the Southern Chinese faction ceases to cooperate with the Satanist committee and their agents. No bribes, however, will be accepted by the White Dragon.
The White Dragon Societies calls for the creation of a new meritocratically staffed organization to replace the Federal Reserve Board and the IMF to take over the issuance of US dollars. It also wants a global economic planning agency to be set up to carry out projects, such as ending poverty, stopping environmental destruction, greening deserts, exploring space etc.
The Rothchilds and European Royal Bloodlines, for their part, are asking for a sovereign island with two UN seats and unlimited funding in exchange for their cooperation. This is something the White Dragon can live with
Frontrunning: February 22
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2011 08:01 -0500
Bank of EnglandBOEConsumer ConfidenceGermanyItalyNew ZealandratingsSwitzerlandTrade BalanceUnited Kingdom
•Housing data may have understated extent of collapse (Reuters)
•Powerful 6.3 Earthquake Hits New Zealand, NZD slides (FT)
•Shutdown Fears Raise Hopes for US Budget (FT)
•Oil price shock: Pandora's Box is opened (Telegraph)
•Spain's rotting corpse finally floats to surface: Spain Pegs Cajas' Possible Problem Debt at €100 billion (WSJ)
•Wal-Mart Fourth-Quarter U.S. Comparable Sales Trail Forecast (Bloomberg)
•New Property Rules Driving Rent Prices (People's Daily)
•BofA Doubles Writedown for Credit-Card Unit to $20.3 Billion (Bloomberg)
•Weber Sets Germany on Collision Course with EU (FT)
•Desperate Gaddafi Clings to Power (FT)
•Bond Market Swaps Back Bernanke's Benign Inflation View (Bloomberg)
•Sale of the Century (Newsweek)
Bank of EnglandBOEConsumer ConfidenceGermanyItalyNew ZealandratingsSwitzerlandTrade BalanceUnited Kingdom
•Housing data may have understated extent of collapse (Reuters)
•Powerful 6.3 Earthquake Hits New Zealand, NZD slides (FT)
•Shutdown Fears Raise Hopes for US Budget (FT)
•Oil price shock: Pandora's Box is opened (Telegraph)
•Spain's rotting corpse finally floats to surface: Spain Pegs Cajas' Possible Problem Debt at €100 billion (WSJ)
•Wal-Mart Fourth-Quarter U.S. Comparable Sales Trail Forecast (Bloomberg)
•New Property Rules Driving Rent Prices (People's Daily)
•BofA Doubles Writedown for Credit-Card Unit to $20.3 Billion (Bloomberg)
•Weber Sets Germany on Collision Course with EU (FT)
•Desperate Gaddafi Clings to Power (FT)
•Bond Market Swaps Back Bernanke's Benign Inflation View (Bloomberg)
•Sale of the Century (Newsweek)
Iran Warships Begin Suez Crossing
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2011 08:29 -0500
Despite indications that the US would attempt to forcefully box the Iranian warships in the Red Sea, first observed here, this strategy, if that was indeed the plan, has failed, and according to Egypt's state-run MENA agency, the Suez crossing for one (very old) Iranian frigate and one (very old) supply ship has commenced. Bloomberg reports: "The ships entered the canal early today after the approval of Egypt’s Defense Ministry, the state-run Middle East News Agency cited Ahmed El Manakhly, head of traffic at the Suez Canal Authority, as saying. The crossing usually takes 10 to 12 hours, El Manakhly said." Israel is, needless to say, unhappy: "Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor today said that Israel would consider the presence of the warships sailing through the canal to the Mediterranean Sea “a provocation” that should be “dealt with by the international community.” Palmor said he was citing previous comments by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman." Yet with tensions already on edge, the possibility that this latest war of words escalates into anything more is quite remote.
Despite indications that the US would attempt to forcefully box the Iranian warships in the Red Sea, first observed here, this strategy, if that was indeed the plan, has failed, and according to Egypt's state-run MENA agency, the Suez crossing for one (very old) Iranian frigate and one (very old) supply ship has commenced. Bloomberg reports: "The ships entered the canal early today after the approval of Egypt’s Defense Ministry, the state-run Middle East News Agency cited Ahmed El Manakhly, head of traffic at the Suez Canal Authority, as saying. The crossing usually takes 10 to 12 hours, El Manakhly said." Israel is, needless to say, unhappy: "Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor today said that Israel would consider the presence of the warships sailing through the canal to the Mediterranean Sea “a provocation” that should be “dealt with by the international community.” Palmor said he was citing previous comments by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman." Yet with tensions already on edge, the possibility that this latest war of words escalates into anything more is quite remote.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Rep. Steve Scalise says vote sends a signal to the president that lawmakers are tired of his "shadow government."
Rep. Steve Scalise says vote sends a signal to the president that lawmakers are tired of his "shadow government."
By Andrew Restuccia - 02/17/11 07:01 PM ET
The House GOP approved an amendment to a government-spending bill that would block funding for the Obama administration’s so-called policy "czars,” appointed advisers to the president that have been much-criticized by Republicans.
The vote was 249-171.
The amendment, offered by Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), specifically targets Obama’s “climate czar” by blocking funding for the assistant to the president for energy and climate change, the position's official title. The amendment would block funding for the 'czars' through the end of the fiscal year, when the spending bill would run out. The underlying bill also includes a provision to block funding for the position.
"I think this sends a strong signal to the president that we are tired of him running this shadow government, where they have got these czars that are literally circumventing the accountability and scrutiny that goes with Senate confirmation," Scalise said after the vote.
Carol Browner, who currently holds the position, announced last month that she will resign, leaving the future of the office in doubt.
Scalise said the measure blocking the czars also makes good fiscal sense.
"We are going to save millions of taxpayer dollars, but we are also going to send him a signal that he is going to have to hold his administration accountable to the same transparency that he promised, but has unfortunately failed to deliver," he said.
Republicans railed against Browner and Obama’s other policy advisers, arguing they played too great a role in the president’s policy decisions for officials that were appointed rather than confirmed by Congress.
The amendment would also prohibit funding for the director of the White House Office of Health Reform; the State Department’s special envoy for climate change; the special adviser for green jobs, enterprise and innovation at the Council on Environmental Quality; the senior adviser to the secretary of the treasury assigned to the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry and senior counselor for manufacturing policy; the White House director of urban affairs; the special envoy to oversee the closure of Guantanamo Bay; the special master for TARP executive compensation at the Department of the Treasury; and the associate general counsel and chief diversity officer at the Federal Communications Commission.
By Andrew Restuccia - 02/17/11 07:01 PM ET
The House GOP approved an amendment to a government-spending bill that would block funding for the Obama administration’s so-called policy "czars,” appointed advisers to the president that have been much-criticized by Republicans.
The vote was 249-171.
The amendment, offered by Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), specifically targets Obama’s “climate czar” by blocking funding for the assistant to the president for energy and climate change, the position's official title. The amendment would block funding for the 'czars' through the end of the fiscal year, when the spending bill would run out. The underlying bill also includes a provision to block funding for the position.
"I think this sends a strong signal to the president that we are tired of him running this shadow government, where they have got these czars that are literally circumventing the accountability and scrutiny that goes with Senate confirmation," Scalise said after the vote.
Carol Browner, who currently holds the position, announced last month that she will resign, leaving the future of the office in doubt.
Scalise said the measure blocking the czars also makes good fiscal sense.
"We are going to save millions of taxpayer dollars, but we are also going to send him a signal that he is going to have to hold his administration accountable to the same transparency that he promised, but has unfortunately failed to deliver," he said.
Republicans railed against Browner and Obama’s other policy advisers, arguing they played too great a role in the president’s policy decisions for officials that were appointed rather than confirmed by Congress.
The amendment would also prohibit funding for the director of the White House Office of Health Reform; the State Department’s special envoy for climate change; the special adviser for green jobs, enterprise and innovation at the Council on Environmental Quality; the senior adviser to the secretary of the treasury assigned to the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry and senior counselor for manufacturing policy; the White House director of urban affairs; the special envoy to oversee the closure of Guantanamo Bay; the special master for TARP executive compensation at the Department of the Treasury; and the associate general counsel and chief diversity officer at the Federal Communications Commission.
Hillary Clinton donors indicted
Hillary Clinton donors indicted
By Jordy Yager - 02/16/11 08:32 PM ET
A federal grand jury indicted two Virginia men on Wednesday for allegedly trying to illegally reimburse donors who gave to Hillary Rodham Clinton’s Senate and presidential campaigns.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) has accused the two men, William Danielczyk and Eugene Biagi, of paying back $186,600 in contributions to the Senate and presidential campaign committees of a candidate for federal office, and obstructing the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and the FBI.
Though the DOJ does not name the candidate that the men donated to, according to campaign finance records Danielczyk and Biagi donated to Clinton’s 2006 Senate bid and her 2008 presidential campaign.
The two men are each charged with one count of conspiracy, two counts of reimbursing contributions, one count of using corporate funds to reimburse contributions, and one count of obstructing justice.
“As part of the scheme, Danielczyk and Biagi allegedly created and distributed back-dated letters to 15 contributors that falsely characterized reimbursements for contributions as ‘consulting fees,’” according to the DOJ.
According to court documents, April Spittle helped Danielczyk and Biagi, and earlier this month pleaded guilty to one count of making reimbursed contributions to the 2008 presidential campaign.
The defendants are expected to make initial court appearances Friday in U.S. District Court in Alexandria.
The maximum penalty for the conspiracy charge is five years in prison, while the charges of reimbursing contributions and contributing corporate funds each carry a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison. Obstruction of justice is punishable by up to 20 years in prison.
By Jordy Yager - 02/16/11 08:32 PM ET
A federal grand jury indicted two Virginia men on Wednesday for allegedly trying to illegally reimburse donors who gave to Hillary Rodham Clinton’s Senate and presidential campaigns.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) has accused the two men, William Danielczyk and Eugene Biagi, of paying back $186,600 in contributions to the Senate and presidential campaign committees of a candidate for federal office, and obstructing the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and the FBI.
Though the DOJ does not name the candidate that the men donated to, according to campaign finance records Danielczyk and Biagi donated to Clinton’s 2006 Senate bid and her 2008 presidential campaign.
The two men are each charged with one count of conspiracy, two counts of reimbursing contributions, one count of using corporate funds to reimburse contributions, and one count of obstructing justice.
“As part of the scheme, Danielczyk and Biagi allegedly created and distributed back-dated letters to 15 contributors that falsely characterized reimbursements for contributions as ‘consulting fees,’” according to the DOJ.
According to court documents, April Spittle helped Danielczyk and Biagi, and earlier this month pleaded guilty to one count of making reimbursed contributions to the 2008 presidential campaign.
The defendants are expected to make initial court appearances Friday in U.S. District Court in Alexandria.
The maximum penalty for the conspiracy charge is five years in prison, while the charges of reimbursing contributions and contributing corporate funds each carry a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison. Obstruction of justice is punishable by up to 20 years in prison.
A reasonable scenario of Collapse of the Global Financial System for a new book by Damon Vickers a must read
From the Author: A Fictional Timeline of Events for the Crash of the U.S. Dollar
Author Damon Vickers
10 a.m. EST Wednesday. The U.S. government is having its regular auction of U.S. Treasury notes. Here we go again begging to the world with our tin cup. Only this time the world says, “No. We aren’t going to buy any more U.S. I.O.U.s.”
3 p.m. EST Sunday. When the Asian markets open, we see a meltdown. The Asian markets are down 5 percent, then 6 percent then 7 percent in an all out free-fall. It touches off an avalanche of selling and markets around the world go into independent free-falls.
3 p.m. EST Sunday. Global currencies start to slip and are also in free fall. Gold prices rise by $300 to $400 dollars an ounce. Silver and palladium are also up as global investors convert, to put everything they have into precious metals.
9:30 a.m. EST Monday. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) opens and within minutes circuit breakers around the world pop under a deluge of market orders.
9:50 a.m. EST Monday. The NYSE is advised of the liquidity problems and the market shuts down. Markets around the world react with volatility in a strong down trend. Everyone starts selling bonds to raise capital, but there are few buyers. Prices plunge; yields rise.
10:10 a.m. EST Monday. Markets around the world react to the close of the NYSE with volatility in a strong down trend.
10:45 a.m. EST Monday. Several countries in Europe announce they have raised interest rates by 3 or 4 percent to make their own bonds attractive to buyers. In response, other global markets become very nervous and even less stable.
9:30 a.m. EST Tuesday. The NYSE is unable to open due to the quantity of sell orders jamming the systems.
9:45 a.m. EST Tuesday. The Federal Reserve calls an emergency meeting. The United States needs liquidity and must compete for it.
10:45 a.m. EST Tuesday. The Federal Reserve announces a hike in interest rates.
11:15 a.m. EST Tuesday. Global markets don’t like the hike in U.S. interest rates, but respond by seeking some type of footing for the short term.
11:30 a.m. EST Tuesday. The NYSE finally manages to open two hours after the opening bell. Global markets have gapped down 6 to 7 percent from Friday’s close.
12:05 p.m. EST Tuesday. Traders believe the worst is behind them.
Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning. The dollar rallies. Markets find new levels. Traders around the world are walking on eggshells and having a hard time sleeping. Global currencies are still in free fall. Gold prices continue to rise along with other precious metals as more buyers come in.
2 p.m. EST Friday. In spite of the hike in interest rates, the U.S. dollar continues to fall as global confidence continues to erode.
8 a.m. EST Saturday. The Fed reconvenes.
3 p.m. EST Sunday. The Fed announces a second interest rate hike in as many weeks. At Asian open China gets first crack at the higher yield bonds.
3:01 p.m. EST Sunday. Currency markets instantly respond as bank interest rates in Western Europe are hiked simultaneously with the U.S., but there are no buyers.
9:30 a.m. EST Monday. At the NYSE bell all hell is unleashed. Traders around the world become net sellers of equities, bonds, and western currencies. Everyone wants out at the same time. The world markets are thrown into chaos. Panic and confusion sweep the globe and all markets are in free fall.
9:42 a.m. EST Monday. Everything is jammed as the volume of selling off all distributed equities in all the global markets becomes overwhelming. The markets around the world seize up. Trading ceases.
10:11 a.m. EST Monday. On the NYSE floor, someone turns up the volume on CNN and people slowly gather around the screen to watch videos of bodies falling out of exchange headquarters in Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong, London, Frankfurt, Paris and Bucharest. Someone turns the sound off, but the videos keep playing.
10:28 a.m. EST Monday. On the NYSE floor, traders start to pick up their tickets. Every hand is shaking. Throughout the day shocked traders wander out of the building. Some find their way home. Others are never heard from again. Others begin to obsess about how to recoup their losses if and when the market reopens.
12:01 a.m. EST Tuesday. The IMF convenes with G20 leaders to discuss a solution to the paralyzed markets. They realize the only way to unfreeze the markets is to do a total restructure of all westernized debt in one fell swoop. This will require a complete realignment of currencies as it will likely include massive work-outs by debtor nations. The work outs will mandate that all countries submit to terms set out by a new global authority that is quickly being formed.
6 a.m. EST Tuesday. A spokeswoman for the IMF/G20 coalition holds a news conference before the New York Exchange opens. The conference is simulcast around the world in multiple languages. She assures viewers that everything is under control and that the IMF/G20 coalition will be overseeing an economic reset that will transpire in an orderly manner. She encourages people to remain calm, adding that while the temporary halt in exchange trading is awkward, everybody’s money is safe and there is no need to panic.
3:15 p.m. EST Tuesday. Around the country, panic spreads. Bank runs are reported. Looting spreads from banks and guns shops to grocery stores and supply stores. Riot squads are deployed. The National Guard is called in. Police start recording fatalities. People start firing back at the police.
Hourly updates are broadcast from the White House. The President holds a daily live news conference for selected media representatives, but takes no questions.
6:09 a.m. EST Tuesday. The IMF/G20 coalition holds a news conference that is simultaneously webcast in multiple languages. As a panel, the IMF/G20 coalition members outline the plan to restructure the global economy. They announce the establishment of a new Global Unification Exchange System (GUES) and mandate that all nations cease printing national currencies. It’s a global town hall.
11:10 a.m. EST Wednesday. The newly formed grassroots Coalition for Political Reform/USA (CPR/USA) launches a coordinated internet campaign to demand changes in America political system, specifically the elimination the Electoral College and the creation of a secure online voting system which will ensure one person, one vote and be run by volunteers across the nation.
Pretty scary stuff. Obviously, this is all conjecture. Still, it contains some possibilities that need to be considered as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken.
Author Damon Vickers
10 a.m. EST Wednesday. The U.S. government is having its regular auction of U.S. Treasury notes. Here we go again begging to the world with our tin cup. Only this time the world says, “No. We aren’t going to buy any more U.S. I.O.U.s.”
3 p.m. EST Sunday. When the Asian markets open, we see a meltdown. The Asian markets are down 5 percent, then 6 percent then 7 percent in an all out free-fall. It touches off an avalanche of selling and markets around the world go into independent free-falls.
3 p.m. EST Sunday. Global currencies start to slip and are also in free fall. Gold prices rise by $300 to $400 dollars an ounce. Silver and palladium are also up as global investors convert, to put everything they have into precious metals.
9:30 a.m. EST Monday. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) opens and within minutes circuit breakers around the world pop under a deluge of market orders.
9:50 a.m. EST Monday. The NYSE is advised of the liquidity problems and the market shuts down. Markets around the world react with volatility in a strong down trend. Everyone starts selling bonds to raise capital, but there are few buyers. Prices plunge; yields rise.
10:10 a.m. EST Monday. Markets around the world react to the close of the NYSE with volatility in a strong down trend.
10:45 a.m. EST Monday. Several countries in Europe announce they have raised interest rates by 3 or 4 percent to make their own bonds attractive to buyers. In response, other global markets become very nervous and even less stable.
9:30 a.m. EST Tuesday. The NYSE is unable to open due to the quantity of sell orders jamming the systems.
9:45 a.m. EST Tuesday. The Federal Reserve calls an emergency meeting. The United States needs liquidity and must compete for it.
10:45 a.m. EST Tuesday. The Federal Reserve announces a hike in interest rates.
11:15 a.m. EST Tuesday. Global markets don’t like the hike in U.S. interest rates, but respond by seeking some type of footing for the short term.
11:30 a.m. EST Tuesday. The NYSE finally manages to open two hours after the opening bell. Global markets have gapped down 6 to 7 percent from Friday’s close.
12:05 p.m. EST Tuesday. Traders believe the worst is behind them.
Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning. The dollar rallies. Markets find new levels. Traders around the world are walking on eggshells and having a hard time sleeping. Global currencies are still in free fall. Gold prices continue to rise along with other precious metals as more buyers come in.
2 p.m. EST Friday. In spite of the hike in interest rates, the U.S. dollar continues to fall as global confidence continues to erode.
8 a.m. EST Saturday. The Fed reconvenes.
3 p.m. EST Sunday. The Fed announces a second interest rate hike in as many weeks. At Asian open China gets first crack at the higher yield bonds.
3:01 p.m. EST Sunday. Currency markets instantly respond as bank interest rates in Western Europe are hiked simultaneously with the U.S., but there are no buyers.
9:30 a.m. EST Monday. At the NYSE bell all hell is unleashed. Traders around the world become net sellers of equities, bonds, and western currencies. Everyone wants out at the same time. The world markets are thrown into chaos. Panic and confusion sweep the globe and all markets are in free fall.
9:42 a.m. EST Monday. Everything is jammed as the volume of selling off all distributed equities in all the global markets becomes overwhelming. The markets around the world seize up. Trading ceases.
10:11 a.m. EST Monday. On the NYSE floor, someone turns up the volume on CNN and people slowly gather around the screen to watch videos of bodies falling out of exchange headquarters in Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong, London, Frankfurt, Paris and Bucharest. Someone turns the sound off, but the videos keep playing.
10:28 a.m. EST Monday. On the NYSE floor, traders start to pick up their tickets. Every hand is shaking. Throughout the day shocked traders wander out of the building. Some find their way home. Others are never heard from again. Others begin to obsess about how to recoup their losses if and when the market reopens.
12:01 a.m. EST Tuesday. The IMF convenes with G20 leaders to discuss a solution to the paralyzed markets. They realize the only way to unfreeze the markets is to do a total restructure of all westernized debt in one fell swoop. This will require a complete realignment of currencies as it will likely include massive work-outs by debtor nations. The work outs will mandate that all countries submit to terms set out by a new global authority that is quickly being formed.
6 a.m. EST Tuesday. A spokeswoman for the IMF/G20 coalition holds a news conference before the New York Exchange opens. The conference is simulcast around the world in multiple languages. She assures viewers that everything is under control and that the IMF/G20 coalition will be overseeing an economic reset that will transpire in an orderly manner. She encourages people to remain calm, adding that while the temporary halt in exchange trading is awkward, everybody’s money is safe and there is no need to panic.
3:15 p.m. EST Tuesday. Around the country, panic spreads. Bank runs are reported. Looting spreads from banks and guns shops to grocery stores and supply stores. Riot squads are deployed. The National Guard is called in. Police start recording fatalities. People start firing back at the police.
Hourly updates are broadcast from the White House. The President holds a daily live news conference for selected media representatives, but takes no questions.
6:09 a.m. EST Tuesday. The IMF/G20 coalition holds a news conference that is simultaneously webcast in multiple languages. As a panel, the IMF/G20 coalition members outline the plan to restructure the global economy. They announce the establishment of a new Global Unification Exchange System (GUES) and mandate that all nations cease printing national currencies. It’s a global town hall.
11:10 a.m. EST Wednesday. The newly formed grassroots Coalition for Political Reform/USA (CPR/USA) launches a coordinated internet campaign to demand changes in America political system, specifically the elimination the Electoral College and the creation of a secure online voting system which will ensure one person, one vote and be run by volunteers across the nation.
Pretty scary stuff. Obviously, this is all conjecture. Still, it contains some possibilities that need to be considered as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken.
Acute Liquidity Crisis In Europe Confirmed As Borrowing Surge On Marginal Lending Facility Continues
Comment on article by: Francis Soyer 2/18/11
The below article in this speculator's opinion is a fairly serious issue. As known by many maybe .01% of money managers on this planet or who have the where with all to understand what is happening from a Global Fiscal Policy point of view, these are the beginning warning signs of what it to come as a result of the Implamentation QE II and the coming of Basel III. Basel III requires banking reserves to increase by 50% for banks and has a longer time line for compliance 2014 last I checked but European banks were said to begin adopting this new capital requirement for banks at the start of 2011.
This is where the trouble will begin after quantitative easing ends (expected to be end of June or near). This is the setup that WILL bring down the entire global financial system including equities, real estate you name it save silver, gold and hard assets as almost all currencies will reach their race to zero almost over night. Some have put together scenarios that span a week or two and those articles will follow.
Again a reiteration this is an early shot accross the bow so to speak and confirmation of what is to come.
Acute Liquidity Crisis In Europe Confirmed As Borrowing Surge On Marginal Lending Facility Continues For Second DaySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/18/2011 07:26 -0500
European Central Bank
The one thing that nobody is conveniently talking about that has suddenly become a big flash red light, the surge in borrowing on the ECB's Marginal Lending Facility which we noted yesterday, continues for the second day in a row, removing all speculation of this being a technical or calendar glitch, and confirming that some financial entity in Europe has entered its death rattle. Today, the ECB announced that after borrowing €15.8 billion in overnight liquidity, the highest since the program's inception in 2009, we got another increase in borrowing, this time at €16 billion in overnight liquidity needs. With expectations that this borrowing surge at a last resort rate of 1.25% would normalize disappearing, we are surprised the reaction in the EUR is not far greater: the EURUSD did contract modestly overnight, but if this is indeed the proverbial first domino we would be very concerned about the long term prospects of the European currency. What is most concerning is that after revelations of check kiting at Irish banks yesterday, which confirms that banks are using a legalized ponzi scheme to literally print each other money, that some bank - any bank - will need to resort to such a high rate source of overnight capital. As European collateral has no quality thresholds, and as the ECB will accept anything, it makes no sense for any bank to pay incremental interest just to transfer borrowing to an overnight facility with a punitive rate - simple as that. If this continues for a third day on Monday, it may well be time to follow Hugh Hendry's advice, and panic.
The below article in this speculator's opinion is a fairly serious issue. As known by many maybe .01% of money managers on this planet or who have the where with all to understand what is happening from a Global Fiscal Policy point of view, these are the beginning warning signs of what it to come as a result of the Implamentation QE II and the coming of Basel III. Basel III requires banking reserves to increase by 50% for banks and has a longer time line for compliance 2014 last I checked but European banks were said to begin adopting this new capital requirement for banks at the start of 2011.
This is where the trouble will begin after quantitative easing ends (expected to be end of June or near). This is the setup that WILL bring down the entire global financial system including equities, real estate you name it save silver, gold and hard assets as almost all currencies will reach their race to zero almost over night. Some have put together scenarios that span a week or two and those articles will follow.
Again a reiteration this is an early shot accross the bow so to speak and confirmation of what is to come.
Acute Liquidity Crisis In Europe Confirmed As Borrowing Surge On Marginal Lending Facility Continues For Second DaySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/18/2011 07:26 -0500
European Central Bank
The one thing that nobody is conveniently talking about that has suddenly become a big flash red light, the surge in borrowing on the ECB's Marginal Lending Facility which we noted yesterday, continues for the second day in a row, removing all speculation of this being a technical or calendar glitch, and confirming that some financial entity in Europe has entered its death rattle. Today, the ECB announced that after borrowing €15.8 billion in overnight liquidity, the highest since the program's inception in 2009, we got another increase in borrowing, this time at €16 billion in overnight liquidity needs. With expectations that this borrowing surge at a last resort rate of 1.25% would normalize disappearing, we are surprised the reaction in the EUR is not far greater: the EURUSD did contract modestly overnight, but if this is indeed the proverbial first domino we would be very concerned about the long term prospects of the European currency. What is most concerning is that after revelations of check kiting at Irish banks yesterday, which confirms that banks are using a legalized ponzi scheme to literally print each other money, that some bank - any bank - will need to resort to such a high rate source of overnight capital. As European collateral has no quality thresholds, and as the ECB will accept anything, it makes no sense for any bank to pay incremental interest just to transfer borrowing to an overnight facility with a punitive rate - simple as that. If this continues for a third day on Monday, it may well be time to follow Hugh Hendry's advice, and panic.
Frontrunning: February 18
Frontrunning: February 18
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/18/2011 08:50 -0500
GermanyReuters
•Mergers loom as "flash crash" back in spotlight (Reuters)
•A monetary regime for a multipolar world (FT)
•Split in Economy Keeps Lid on Prices (WSJ)
•Inflow of 'Hot Money' Hits $35.5 Bn (China Daily)
•Bahrain Military Takes Control of Capital (FT)
•Trade Judges See Flaw in China Policies (WSJ)
•German Banks' Debt Downgraded By Moody's on Restructuring Act (Bloomberg)
•Balls Warns King on Bank Credibility (FT)
•Looks Like Banks Lose on Risk Plea (NYT)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/18/2011 08:50 -0500
GermanyReuters
•Mergers loom as "flash crash" back in spotlight (Reuters)
•A monetary regime for a multipolar world (FT)
•Split in Economy Keeps Lid on Prices (WSJ)
•Inflow of 'Hot Money' Hits $35.5 Bn (China Daily)
•Bahrain Military Takes Control of Capital (FT)
•Trade Judges See Flaw in China Policies (WSJ)
•German Banks' Debt Downgraded By Moody's on Restructuring Act (Bloomberg)
•Balls Warns King on Bank Credibility (FT)
•Looks Like Banks Lose on Risk Plea (NYT)
Thursday, February 17, 2011
FOX News Creates Fraudulent Video to Discredit Ron Paul
Comment from Francis Soyer:
This posting here is one of the more important postings this reader has come accross this year. It is a smoking gun, un refutable smoking gun piece of evidence of why all readers of this posts and others should turn off their TV if they are seeking any form of news. Also throw away your news papers, most magazines and other forms of Journalism you can think of. It is all crap and lies. The majority of news company's are owned by a handful of companies that have agendas to serve, opinions to manipulate to esnure the survival of their advertising constituents. Below is a clear and un mistakable example of why not to listen to FOX, CNBC, MSN, YAHOO, Wall Street Journal, NY Times, The Globe, Bloomberg News, NBC, CBS, ABC, Time Warner, Jim Cramer, and yes even CNN. These are ALL corporate owned media companies who could care less about real journalism. What they do care about: Serve the financial agenda of their shareholders (owners) e.g. members of the richest .01% of the Global population that own 75% of the planets wealth. What is it that they fear? They fear change plain and simple. Change that could cause them to lose control over others by means of wealth -master (those who own) and slave (those who must do what those who own to survive) relationship. Ron Paul is one of those few who have dared to speak out against this relationship in man and how we treat eachother. The only other two men of noteworthy attempt to challenge this relationship where Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy. We all know what happened to them, so lets all put Ron Paul into our thoughts for safety and success and may God Bless.
FOX News Creates Fraudulent Video to Discredit Ron Paul
Submitted by EB on 02/17/2011 08:27 -0500
Fox NewsRon Paul
As Paul Joseph Watson of PrisonPlanet writes:
In a shocking act of mass public deception, Fox News attempted to skew Ron Paul’s 2011 CPAC straw poll win by representing it with footage from the previous year’s CPAC event, at which Mitt Romney supporters had loudly booed the result, another example of the continuing dirty tricks campaign being waged against Paul by the establishment media.
Congressman Paul replicated his 2010 victory over Mitt Romney by defeating the former Governor of Massachusetts for a second consecutive year at the annual CPAC conference.
However, before anchor Bill Hemmer introduced a segment concerning the story, Fox News played a clip of the 2010 announcement of the poll results, during which Mitt Romney supporters had loudly booed Ron Paul’s victory, passing off last year’s footage as representative of this year’s event.
Hemmer then proceeded to state, “In the end he was the winner, probably not the reaction he was hoping for,” describing the reaction as “mixed applause and boos,” before directly asking Ron Paul if he knew who was booing him.
Robert Wenzel comments:
This is the most incredible act of news media deception ever caught in smoking gun style. This video is a must view, and notice how the FOX anchors set up the lie and Bill Hemmer, the anchor interviewing Congressman Paul, brings the LIE right into the interview, in a further attempt to dilute Paul's victory.
These boys are scared, really scared. Get this video clip out to everyone and let people know what is going on.
Did FOX News [sic] and Bill Hemmer just have their very own CBS/Dan Rather moment?
Update per Mediaite (ht Cleve Meater):
...Fox News claims it was completely accidental. Mediaite received the following statementfrom Senior Vice President of News Michael Clemente:
“We made a mistake with some of the video we aired, and plan on issuing a correction onAmerica’s Newsroom tomorrow morning explaining exactly what happened.”
This posting here is one of the more important postings this reader has come accross this year. It is a smoking gun, un refutable smoking gun piece of evidence of why all readers of this posts and others should turn off their TV if they are seeking any form of news. Also throw away your news papers, most magazines and other forms of Journalism you can think of. It is all crap and lies. The majority of news company's are owned by a handful of companies that have agendas to serve, opinions to manipulate to esnure the survival of their advertising constituents. Below is a clear and un mistakable example of why not to listen to FOX, CNBC, MSN, YAHOO, Wall Street Journal, NY Times, The Globe, Bloomberg News, NBC, CBS, ABC, Time Warner, Jim Cramer, and yes even CNN. These are ALL corporate owned media companies who could care less about real journalism. What they do care about: Serve the financial agenda of their shareholders (owners) e.g. members of the richest .01% of the Global population that own 75% of the planets wealth. What is it that they fear? They fear change plain and simple. Change that could cause them to lose control over others by means of wealth -master (those who own) and slave (those who must do what those who own to survive) relationship. Ron Paul is one of those few who have dared to speak out against this relationship in man and how we treat eachother. The only other two men of noteworthy attempt to challenge this relationship where Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy. We all know what happened to them, so lets all put Ron Paul into our thoughts for safety and success and may God Bless.
FOX News Creates Fraudulent Video to Discredit Ron Paul
Submitted by EB on 02/17/2011 08:27 -0500
Fox NewsRon Paul
As Paul Joseph Watson of PrisonPlanet writes:
In a shocking act of mass public deception, Fox News attempted to skew Ron Paul’s 2011 CPAC straw poll win by representing it with footage from the previous year’s CPAC event, at which Mitt Romney supporters had loudly booed the result, another example of the continuing dirty tricks campaign being waged against Paul by the establishment media.
Congressman Paul replicated his 2010 victory over Mitt Romney by defeating the former Governor of Massachusetts for a second consecutive year at the annual CPAC conference.
However, before anchor Bill Hemmer introduced a segment concerning the story, Fox News played a clip of the 2010 announcement of the poll results, during which Mitt Romney supporters had loudly booed Ron Paul’s victory, passing off last year’s footage as representative of this year’s event.
Hemmer then proceeded to state, “In the end he was the winner, probably not the reaction he was hoping for,” describing the reaction as “mixed applause and boos,” before directly asking Ron Paul if he knew who was booing him.
Robert Wenzel comments:
This is the most incredible act of news media deception ever caught in smoking gun style. This video is a must view, and notice how the FOX anchors set up the lie and Bill Hemmer, the anchor interviewing Congressman Paul, brings the LIE right into the interview, in a further attempt to dilute Paul's victory.
These boys are scared, really scared. Get this video clip out to everyone and let people know what is going on.
Did FOX News [sic] and Bill Hemmer just have their very own CBS/Dan Rather moment?
Update per Mediaite (ht Cleve Meater):
...Fox News claims it was completely accidental. Mediaite received the following statementfrom Senior Vice President of News Michael Clemente:
“We made a mistake with some of the video we aired, and plan on issuing a correction onAmerica’s Newsroom tomorrow morning explaining exactly what happened.”
It's Official: Iran Says It Will Send 2 Warships Through Suez Canal
It's Official: Iran Says It Will Send 2 Warships Through Suez Canal
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/17/2011 08:45 -0500
After nothing happened last night, following Egypt's statement that it had not received a request to allow Iranian warships through the canal, PressTV has just announced that an Iran Navy official says the 2 warships are in fact on their way to the Canal and will pass shortly. Per Reuters, "the Iran state TV says Egypt sees nothing wrong with passage of Iranian warships through Suez Canal." The vessels in question are the Alvand frigate and the Kharg, a supply vessel.
Photo of the Alvand:
Look for kneejerk reaction in crude.
Some more perspectives from Information Dissemination:
The two Iranian ships are the corvette Alvand and supply ship Kharg, both pictured in this blog post. The Alvand is the flagship of the Iranian Navy. Displacing around 1,500 tons, the ship comes armed with 4 C-802 anti-ship missiles, a 4.5in gun, torpedo launchers, and various smaller machine guns and mortars. The US Navy has seen this class of ship before, in battle. During Operation Preying Mantis in 1988, the Iranian corvette Sabalan was left paralyzed and on fire from a 500 lb bomb from an A-6, while another pair of A-6s crippled the Sahand where she later sunk southwest of Larak Island following a Harpoon strike from the USS Joseph Strauss (DDG-16). For the sake of symmetry, I'll note the A-6s involved in Operation Preying Mantis that slapped around the sister ships of Alvand were from the VA-95 "Green Lizards" and flown off none other than the USS Enterprise (CVN 65).
The Iranian flagship Alvand is not a naval threat to anyone in the region, and is not why Israel is raising concern. The ship has terrible anti-air capabilities that are no match against the capabilities of the Egyptian Air Force, the Royal Saudi Air Force, the Israeli Air Force, or Carrier Air Wing One on the USS Enterprise (CVN 65). While the media portrayal of the Iranian Navy near the Suez is one of distressing concern, the reality is that corvette represents the biggest regional target at sea for thousands of nautical miles. The media may describe the presence of the Iranian corvette in the context of doubt, fear, and concern; but given Israel's outrage and tendency to be trigger happy - allow me to suggest the scariest place to be in the Red Sea today is anywhere near that ship. I note the irony between how the news narrative represents a complete disconnect between perception and reality.
Speaking of Israeli concern, assuming it is legitimate and not parochial; it likely has to do with the supply ship Kharg and not the corvette Alvand.
The supply ship Kharg is much more interesting. The Kharg is the largest ship in the Iranian Navy displacing around 33,000 tons and is a modified Olwen class fast fleet tanker. This is a big ship, and with the current tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel is likely very concerned about what the ship is carrying. As a Navy ship rather than a commercial ship, the ship will not be searched for cargo so the concern by the Israeli's is that the ship could carry weapons to Syria where weapons can be unloaded and sent to Lebanon. There are rumors that go back several years that the Kharg has been often been observed in the Gulf of Aden delivering weapons from Iran to destinations like Eritrea and the Sudan.
If you follow the Wikileaks cables you will note that this known arms smuggling connection between Iran and Eritrea was how the Government of Yemen believed the Houthis were being armed, although the cables actually reveal that is not how the Houthis are being armed based on different intelligence.
Are the Israeli's being paranoid? Probably not. The Kharg is the best choice of vessel to move substantial arms from Iran to Hezbollah quickly and without harassment. It is around 2,150nm from Bandar Abbas, Iran to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia - where these Iranian ships made port last week. While I understand that a little corvette might have to make stops every few thousand nautical miles - even a corvette with the range of the Alvand - why does a fast fleet tanker like Kharg need a fill up after only a few thousand miles travel?
Probably because the tanker is carrying more than fuel.
What To Do
The Israeli's can get trigger happy in a hurry, so I have no idea what they will do. However, I noted with interest that PJ Crowley described the US position on the presence of the Iranian ships approaching the Suez Canal as one of "curiosity." OK, I buy that, I'm certainly curious as well. But the real question is what if anything should the United States do?
Well, if you are the US it depends if you think the Israel will attack the ships. If you do think Israel is going to get trigger happy, we should do nothing. However, if the US does not believe the Israeli's are going to attack the Iranian ships, this is what I believe the US should do.
It is more than a little disturbing to me that a ~1,500 ton Iranian corvette built in 1971 with 4 ASMs and no air defenses escorted by an old oil tanker can send the price of US oil up 1.8% for simply sailing on the ocean. Iran just significantly shifted an economic market in the US with a piece of shit corvette even though the USS Enterprise (CVN 65) was literally right there. Think about that a second...
An increase of 1.8% comes to $.67 per bbl of oil, and the United States uses 21,000,000 bbls of oil per day. That means that through soft power presence alone the Iranian Navy flagship, which by every modern naval standard is nothing more than a ~1,500 ton unrated corvette with a questionably trained crew and supported an old tanker, and yet the Iranian Navy just sent a $14 million shiver down the spine of the energy economy of the United States. To add insult to injury, that bump in oil cost could potentially sustain itself for several days while the Iranian Navy operates in that region.
How do we reconcile the ability of an Iranian corvette half way around the world to influence a US economic market with the rhetoric by the United States Navy leadership who attempts to link US naval power with US economy? How can observers not draw the conclusion that investors in this country have lost all association with American naval power and the sustainability of regional peace when an Iranian corvette can make this kind of economic impact while operating right next to a US aircraft carrier strike group? Investors in the US oil futures market must not even associate US naval power as a deterrent to economic disruption when oil shoots up 1.8% based on presence alone, and in this case the US naval power present is a carrier strike group. Is this a matter of stupidity or ignorance on the part of the investors, or does this say something about the US Navy's ability to articulate it's own value to the nation?
So, clearly the Navy has a communication problem... How can the US Navy address this? Well, if I was given 5-star rank for a day I would sail my Arleigh Burke class destroyer along side the Iranian Navy flagship for a "wave and hello" and take a photograph of the two ships side by side while underway. I realize that strategic communication is a forgotten, and perhaps lost art in the US Navy, but if you put a photograph on Navy.mil with the two warships in near proximity that illustrates the sheer size difference between the flagship of the Iranian Navy and a US Navy Arleigh Burke class destroyer, I will predict that the unofficial PASSEX is worth several thousand words to a great many reporters and Americans while also being a photograph worth about $14 million in savings to the US energy economy a day.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/17/2011 08:45 -0500
After nothing happened last night, following Egypt's statement that it had not received a request to allow Iranian warships through the canal, PressTV has just announced that an Iran Navy official says the 2 warships are in fact on their way to the Canal and will pass shortly. Per Reuters, "the Iran state TV says Egypt sees nothing wrong with passage of Iranian warships through Suez Canal." The vessels in question are the Alvand frigate and the Kharg, a supply vessel.
Photo of the Alvand:
Look for kneejerk reaction in crude.
Some more perspectives from Information Dissemination:
The two Iranian ships are the corvette Alvand and supply ship Kharg, both pictured in this blog post. The Alvand is the flagship of the Iranian Navy. Displacing around 1,500 tons, the ship comes armed with 4 C-802 anti-ship missiles, a 4.5in gun, torpedo launchers, and various smaller machine guns and mortars. The US Navy has seen this class of ship before, in battle. During Operation Preying Mantis in 1988, the Iranian corvette Sabalan was left paralyzed and on fire from a 500 lb bomb from an A-6, while another pair of A-6s crippled the Sahand where she later sunk southwest of Larak Island following a Harpoon strike from the USS Joseph Strauss (DDG-16). For the sake of symmetry, I'll note the A-6s involved in Operation Preying Mantis that slapped around the sister ships of Alvand were from the VA-95 "Green Lizards" and flown off none other than the USS Enterprise (CVN 65).
The Iranian flagship Alvand is not a naval threat to anyone in the region, and is not why Israel is raising concern. The ship has terrible anti-air capabilities that are no match against the capabilities of the Egyptian Air Force, the Royal Saudi Air Force, the Israeli Air Force, or Carrier Air Wing One on the USS Enterprise (CVN 65). While the media portrayal of the Iranian Navy near the Suez is one of distressing concern, the reality is that corvette represents the biggest regional target at sea for thousands of nautical miles. The media may describe the presence of the Iranian corvette in the context of doubt, fear, and concern; but given Israel's outrage and tendency to be trigger happy - allow me to suggest the scariest place to be in the Red Sea today is anywhere near that ship. I note the irony between how the news narrative represents a complete disconnect between perception and reality.
Speaking of Israeli concern, assuming it is legitimate and not parochial; it likely has to do with the supply ship Kharg and not the corvette Alvand.
The supply ship Kharg is much more interesting. The Kharg is the largest ship in the Iranian Navy displacing around 33,000 tons and is a modified Olwen class fast fleet tanker. This is a big ship, and with the current tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel is likely very concerned about what the ship is carrying. As a Navy ship rather than a commercial ship, the ship will not be searched for cargo so the concern by the Israeli's is that the ship could carry weapons to Syria where weapons can be unloaded and sent to Lebanon. There are rumors that go back several years that the Kharg has been often been observed in the Gulf of Aden delivering weapons from Iran to destinations like Eritrea and the Sudan.
If you follow the Wikileaks cables you will note that this known arms smuggling connection between Iran and Eritrea was how the Government of Yemen believed the Houthis were being armed, although the cables actually reveal that is not how the Houthis are being armed based on different intelligence.
Are the Israeli's being paranoid? Probably not. The Kharg is the best choice of vessel to move substantial arms from Iran to Hezbollah quickly and without harassment. It is around 2,150nm from Bandar Abbas, Iran to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia - where these Iranian ships made port last week. While I understand that a little corvette might have to make stops every few thousand nautical miles - even a corvette with the range of the Alvand - why does a fast fleet tanker like Kharg need a fill up after only a few thousand miles travel?
Probably because the tanker is carrying more than fuel.
What To Do
The Israeli's can get trigger happy in a hurry, so I have no idea what they will do. However, I noted with interest that PJ Crowley described the US position on the presence of the Iranian ships approaching the Suez Canal as one of "curiosity." OK, I buy that, I'm certainly curious as well. But the real question is what if anything should the United States do?
Well, if you are the US it depends if you think the Israel will attack the ships. If you do think Israel is going to get trigger happy, we should do nothing. However, if the US does not believe the Israeli's are going to attack the Iranian ships, this is what I believe the US should do.
It is more than a little disturbing to me that a ~1,500 ton Iranian corvette built in 1971 with 4 ASMs and no air defenses escorted by an old oil tanker can send the price of US oil up 1.8% for simply sailing on the ocean. Iran just significantly shifted an economic market in the US with a piece of shit corvette even though the USS Enterprise (CVN 65) was literally right there. Think about that a second...
An increase of 1.8% comes to $.67 per bbl of oil, and the United States uses 21,000,000 bbls of oil per day. That means that through soft power presence alone the Iranian Navy flagship, which by every modern naval standard is nothing more than a ~1,500 ton unrated corvette with a questionably trained crew and supported an old tanker, and yet the Iranian Navy just sent a $14 million shiver down the spine of the energy economy of the United States. To add insult to injury, that bump in oil cost could potentially sustain itself for several days while the Iranian Navy operates in that region.
How do we reconcile the ability of an Iranian corvette half way around the world to influence a US economic market with the rhetoric by the United States Navy leadership who attempts to link US naval power with US economy? How can observers not draw the conclusion that investors in this country have lost all association with American naval power and the sustainability of regional peace when an Iranian corvette can make this kind of economic impact while operating right next to a US aircraft carrier strike group? Investors in the US oil futures market must not even associate US naval power as a deterrent to economic disruption when oil shoots up 1.8% based on presence alone, and in this case the US naval power present is a carrier strike group. Is this a matter of stupidity or ignorance on the part of the investors, or does this say something about the US Navy's ability to articulate it's own value to the nation?
So, clearly the Navy has a communication problem... How can the US Navy address this? Well, if I was given 5-star rank for a day I would sail my Arleigh Burke class destroyer along side the Iranian Navy flagship for a "wave and hello" and take a photograph of the two ships side by side while underway. I realize that strategic communication is a forgotten, and perhaps lost art in the US Navy, but if you put a photograph on Navy.mil with the two warships in near proximity that illustrates the sheer size difference between the flagship of the Iranian Navy and a US Navy Arleigh Burke class destroyer, I will predict that the unofficial PASSEX is worth several thousand words to a great many reporters and Americans while also being a photograph worth about $14 million in savings to the US energy economy a day.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Frontrunning: February 16
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2011 08:29 -0500
•From Prison, Madoff Says Banks ‘Had to Know’ of Fraud (NYT)
•Rising Chinese wages pose relocation risk (FT)
•Bahrain protesters take over key junction (FT)
•Fisher Says He May Prefer Treasury Sales as First Step for Fed Tightening (Bloomberg)
•Banks Push Home Buyers to Put Down More Cash (WSJ)
•Borders Files Bankruptcy as Expense Cuts Don't Stem Losses (Bloomberg)
•China's farm produce prices down last week (ChinaDaily) - weekly food prices are now Headline news
•Brazil Dismisses Plans to Pressure China on Yuan (WSJ)
•All You Need to Know About Why Things Fell Apart: Michael Lewis (Bloomberg)
•From Prison, Madoff Says Banks ‘Had to Know’ of Fraud (NYT)
•Rising Chinese wages pose relocation risk (FT)
•Bahrain protesters take over key junction (FT)
•Fisher Says He May Prefer Treasury Sales as First Step for Fed Tightening (Bloomberg)
•Banks Push Home Buyers to Put Down More Cash (WSJ)
•Borders Files Bankruptcy as Expense Cuts Don't Stem Losses (Bloomberg)
•China's farm produce prices down last week (ChinaDaily) - weekly food prices are now Headline news
•Brazil Dismisses Plans to Pressure China on Yuan (WSJ)
•All You Need to Know About Why Things Fell Apart: Michael Lewis (Bloomberg)
Backward Silver & Forward Weather
Backward Silver & Forward Weather
By Bruce Krasting
Created 02/15/2011 - 19:04
BACKWARD
To make a point on silver I show the spot and forward swap prices for AUDUSD.
Now look at 1 year Treasuries and the same maturity for Australian federal paper.
Put it together. The interest differential is 4.61% in favor of Australia. Note the swaps are at a discount, meaning the left side (bid) is lower than the right side (offer). The forward Aussie discount is equal to the interest differential. Take the mid point of the swap (.0453) and divide it by the spot (.9965) and you get 4.50%. (the 11bp is spreads, ‘noise’ and basis risk differentials.)
Conclusion you can take to the bank: The forward price is equal to the interest differential. Simple.
Okay, with that in mind look at silver today. The futures price is trading to a discount to the cash price. Go back to my example for the AUDUSD. For silver to be backward it MUST mean that the cost to borrow silver is GREATER than the cost to borrow dollars. This is one of those ‘red flags’.
My conclusion? There is a shortage of the physical metal. Blame it on whoever you like. The Mint, the JP Morg, underwater producers. There are dozens of suspects to consider. Either way, it’s bullish for the price.
FORWARD
There is some fairly conclusive information that short-term weather patterns are changing. The evidence is in the most recent ENSO numbers. The extreme La Nina conditions that have brought so much pain to Australia (and other parts of the globe) are in the process of abating.
Consider first this chart that tracks the La Nina El Nino cycle. We have moved off the trough set in December. (From NOAA web site [4])
The updated (December-January) MEI value has strengthened slightly to -1.62 standard deviations after almost dropping below -2 standard deviations in August-September.
The -1.62 still represents a strong La Nina. A closer look at conditions in the four regions that make up the index shows what's going on:
This shows the cumulative change in conditions. We have backed off the extreme.
Where are we headed is the question. There are many computers looking at this and many possible outcomes. A chart of the various forecasts:
Note that the projections broadly point to a reduction of the current conditions. Some of the models are even pointing to a reversion to El Nino status by the end of the summer.
Should a +.05 /+1.0 ENSO (modest El Nino) be the reality this fall it would create conditions not unlike 2004 -2005. Those two years were the biggest hurricane years in the past 25.
Quite a number of folks have suggested to me that ENSO is just part of the picture and I over emphasize its importance in short-term weather patterns. Fair enough. Yet I keep getting hit on the head with evidence that confirms to me that this cycle is driving most of the short-term results. Consider what has happened in Australia over the past six months. They got rain like rarely before seen. What was happening to La Nina conditions that most affect their weather (Nino 3.4)? This from NOAA:
After a drop to +2 in June, July rebounded to +20.5, followed by values between +16 (November) and +27 (December), including +20 in January 2011. The last time that this index showed higher values for the average of any six months was during the same half-year in 1917(!), so any SOI-based classification would classify this event as one the second-strongest event of the last century
The 100-year La Nina was the cause of the 100-year rainfall. For me the cause and effect is too clear to miss. The questions to ask are, a) why are we seeing the extremes? and b) why is the life of the cycle(s) getting shorter and shorter? To my knowledge the folks with the computers haven’t figured that out yet.
By Bruce Krasting
Created 02/15/2011 - 19:04
BACKWARD
To make a point on silver I show the spot and forward swap prices for AUDUSD.
Now look at 1 year Treasuries and the same maturity for Australian federal paper.
Put it together. The interest differential is 4.61% in favor of Australia. Note the swaps are at a discount, meaning the left side (bid) is lower than the right side (offer). The forward Aussie discount is equal to the interest differential. Take the mid point of the swap (.0453) and divide it by the spot (.9965) and you get 4.50%. (the 11bp is spreads, ‘noise’ and basis risk differentials.)
Conclusion you can take to the bank: The forward price is equal to the interest differential. Simple.
Okay, with that in mind look at silver today. The futures price is trading to a discount to the cash price. Go back to my example for the AUDUSD. For silver to be backward it MUST mean that the cost to borrow silver is GREATER than the cost to borrow dollars. This is one of those ‘red flags’.
My conclusion? There is a shortage of the physical metal. Blame it on whoever you like. The Mint, the JP Morg, underwater producers. There are dozens of suspects to consider. Either way, it’s bullish for the price.
FORWARD
There is some fairly conclusive information that short-term weather patterns are changing. The evidence is in the most recent ENSO numbers. The extreme La Nina conditions that have brought so much pain to Australia (and other parts of the globe) are in the process of abating.
Consider first this chart that tracks the La Nina El Nino cycle. We have moved off the trough set in December. (From NOAA web site [4])
The updated (December-January) MEI value has strengthened slightly to -1.62 standard deviations after almost dropping below -2 standard deviations in August-September.
The -1.62 still represents a strong La Nina. A closer look at conditions in the four regions that make up the index shows what's going on:
This shows the cumulative change in conditions. We have backed off the extreme.
Where are we headed is the question. There are many computers looking at this and many possible outcomes. A chart of the various forecasts:
Note that the projections broadly point to a reduction of the current conditions. Some of the models are even pointing to a reversion to El Nino status by the end of the summer.
Should a +.05 /+1.0 ENSO (modest El Nino) be the reality this fall it would create conditions not unlike 2004 -2005. Those two years were the biggest hurricane years in the past 25.
Quite a number of folks have suggested to me that ENSO is just part of the picture and I over emphasize its importance in short-term weather patterns. Fair enough. Yet I keep getting hit on the head with evidence that confirms to me that this cycle is driving most of the short-term results. Consider what has happened in Australia over the past six months. They got rain like rarely before seen. What was happening to La Nina conditions that most affect their weather (Nino 3.4)? This from NOAA:
After a drop to +2 in June, July rebounded to +20.5, followed by values between +16 (November) and +27 (December), including +20 in January 2011. The last time that this index showed higher values for the average of any six months was during the same half-year in 1917(!), so any SOI-based classification would classify this event as one the second-strongest event of the last century
The 100-year La Nina was the cause of the 100-year rainfall. For me the cause and effect is too clear to miss. The questions to ask are, a) why are we seeing the extremes? and b) why is the life of the cycle(s) getting shorter and shorter? To my knowledge the folks with the computers haven’t figured that out yet.
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