Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Bill Fleckenstein: The Race To the Bottom Will Be Won By the Dollar

Bill Fleckenstein: The Race To the Bottom Will Be Won By the Dollar

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"This printing money is going to lead to huge trouble. It’s going to lead to higher interest rates. It’s going to lead to more inflation and at some point there is going to be a train wreck in the currency and the bond market."
Market commentator and money manager Bill Fleckenstein sat down for a recent interview with ChrisMartenson.com and opened fire with both barrels on the Fed and the monetary policy it's pursuing. He and Chris discuss the factors that enabled Bill to be one of the first to accurately identify and warn of the housing and credit bubbles - and how history is now repeating itself via the profligate printing of US dollars. The interview covers a wide range of topics meaningful to the investor trying to make sense of where things are headed from here - including central banking culture, bubble psychology, high-frequency trading, inflation/deflation, and the true relative value of the dollar vs the Euro.
Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Bill Fleckenstein:
In this podcast, Bill sheds light on why:

  • The culture of the Fed reinforces a belief in its infallibility. That blinds it to the fact that its interventions cause market players to adopt irrational behavior leading to misallocations of capital that eventually need to be corrected by the system (e.g., busts). 
  • Correlation between asset classes is the highest it's been in 60 years. This is a result of the Fed flooding the market with liquidity. It makes it very hard for investors to be anything besides speculators.
  • The SEC has been asleep at the switch for the past 15 years, leaving the system vulnerable to exploitation - if which HFT programs are just the latest example.
  • A funding crisis looks inevitable:   at some point the bond market or the currency market will revolt, resulting in a weak dollar and increasing bond rates - despite whatever the Fed wants
  • It's perverse for the US to be rewarded for using a printing press indiscriminately without making any fiscal changes, while Europe is painfully adopting austerity and yet gets penalized.

Frontrunning: January 19

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  • Define irony: Goldman among four underwriters picked to manage AIG share sale (Reuters)
  • Prop trading is baaaack: Volcker Rule Should Require Sign-Off by Bank CEOs, Panel Says (Bloomberg)
  • Wells Fargo Misses Profit Estimates as Mortgage Banking Weakens (Bloomberg)
  • Asia to See Soaring Prices in 2011 (Reuters)
  • Chinese Premier stresses stabilizing food prices, housing market in 1st quarter (Xinhua)
  • China and U.S. Set to Square Off (WSJ)
  • China Needs Urgent Guidance on Euro Debt Risk, Yu Yongding Says (Bloomberg)
  • Gerova Hires Investigator in Bid to Refute Critical Report (NYT)... stock plunges again (report posted here first)
  • José Sócrates reportedly begged for help last week as Portugal became the latest eurozone country tipped for a bailout (Guardian)
  • European banks face tougher stress tests (Irish Times)

Life In America's Most Dangerous City About To Become

Life In America's Most Dangerous City About To Become "Living Hell" As Layoffs Of One Quarter Of Government Labor Force Begin

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Life in Camden, NJ has never been fun. Frequently ranked as America's most dangerous city, whose only claim to fame are the corporate offices of Campbell's Soup, Camden is about to get even more dangerous as it is among the first to experience wholesale cuts to its government labor pool. Bloomberg reports that "as many as 383 workers, representing one-fourth of the local government's work force, are expected to lose their jobs, including about half the police force and one-third of the city's firefighters." It seems cuts have already commenced: "police officers are turning in their badges as part of deep municipal layoffs that began Tuesday." It's a good thing then that unlike the rest of the world, New Jersey does not (yet) have surging food inflation as otherwise one may be tempted to argue this could be a rather interesting hot spot in the future, especially with the local police force deciding to find better pastures even as it starts collecting 99 weeks of unemployment benefits.
From Bloomberg:
Firefighters are planning to march to City Hall on Tuesday, and Mayor Dana Redd is planning a noon news conference to talk about the layoffs in a city facing a huge budget deficit and declining state aid.

The officers began turning in their badges Monday as it became clear that no last-minute deal was going to save many jobs.

Located directly across the Delaware River from Philadelphia, Camden is rampant with open drug-dealing, prostitution and related crimes. More than half of Camden's 80,000 residents, mostly black and Hispanic, live in poverty.

The anti-crime volunteer group Guardian Angels also says it will patrol Camden, as it has Newark, where there were major police layoffs in November.

The fire department, meanwhile, has already been relying on help from volunteer departments in neighboring towns. Interim fire chief David Yates, who retired Jan. 1, has warned that that layoffs will increase response times.

A local pastor says "the fear quotient has been raised," and a police union took out a full-page newspaper advertisement last week warning that Camden would become a "living hell" if layoffs were not averted.
Of course, this being Camden, the only thing that could really push the city to recreate the living conditions of Hades would be a surge not so much in the price of food, or even iPads, but crack cocaine. And according to the Chairman there is substantial slack in the drug production vertical. Which means there are at least a few months before Camden becomes ground zero for what happens when surging inflation and insolvent municipalities mix with curious consequences.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Meet America's 25 Richest Politicians

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Per the just released OpenSecrets list of top 25 wealthiest politicians in America, there are 12 republicans and 12 democrats (and Hillary, whatever she is). While we applaud the diversity among the country's richest "representatives", we can't help but wonder if these people actually "represent" the common man, or the man (such as themselves) having a minimal average net worth of $28 million...
Some further amusing commentary from Before Its News:
I believe it was Emma Goldman who said, "Voting is the opium of the masses." Pitting us regular folk against each other over petty ideologies is how the elite in Congress perpetuate the illusion that we have real choice between the Democrats and the Republicans. It was true in Emma Goldman's time; it's true in our time.

Comedian Chris Rock, when asked during the last presidential election if he was supporting Barack Obama because he is black, replied that he was supporting Obama because he was the only "one-millionaire" running for office. The other candidates were all multi-millionaires. While Obama probably appears further down the list, Rock's point is well-made.The best Americans can do now is vote for the poorest millionaire.

The Center for Responsive Politics has posted the estimated minimum and maximum possible net worth of every single member of Congress and the Administration (from 2008 data) at their website OpenSecrets.org. Here are the top 25. If you want to be shocked, look only at the "Minimum Net Worth" column. If you want to be appalled, look at the "Maximum Net Worth" column.
Full list of America's finest. The fact that Nancy Pelosi' minimum net worth has been disclosed at ($7) Million does not really surprise us: all that facial self-improvement does not come cheap.
RankNameMinimum Net WorthAverageMaximum Net Worth
1Darrell Issa (R-Calif)$156,050,022$303,575,011$451,100,000
2Jane Harman (D-Calif)$151,480,522$293,454,761$435,429,001
3John Kerry (D-Mass)$182,755,534$238,812,296$294,869,059
4Mark Warner (D-Va)$65,692,210$174,385,102$283,077,995
5Jared Polis (D-Colo)$36,694,140$160,909,068$285,123,996
6Herb Kohl (D-Wis)$89,358,027$160,302,011$231,245,995
7Vernon Buchanan (R-Fla)$-69,434,661$148,373,160$366,180,982
8Michael McCaul (R-Texas)$73,685,086$137,611,043$201,537,000
9Jay Rockefeller (D-WVa)$61,446,018$98,832,010$136,218,002
10Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif)$46,055,250$77,082,134$108,109,018
11Frank R. Lautenberg (D-NJ)$49,083,204$76,886,611$104,690,018
12Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif)$-7,356,915$58,436,537$124,229,990
13Alan Mark Grayson (D-Fla)$31,411,044$54,966,522$78,522,000
14James E. Risch (R-Idaho)$19,468,057$54,517,026$89,565,995
15Gary Miller (R-Calif)$19,365,053$51,833,526$84,302,000
16Bob Corker (R-Tenn)$9,778,047$50,717,522$91,656,998
17Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ)$19,898,179$43,797,589$67,697,000
18Nita M. Lowey (D-NY)$14,900,036$39,012,518$63,125,000
19Kenny Ewell Marchant (R-Texas)$13,303,385$38,204,868$63,106,351
20Brian P. Bilbray (R-Calif)$25,143,635$37,819,629$50,495,623
21Harry Teague (D-NM)$21,119,041$37,102,019$53,084,997
22Denny Rehberg (R-Mont)$6,598,014$31,421,505$56,244,997
23Hillary Clinton$10,727,014$31,243,506$51,759,999
24Olympia J. Snowe (R-Maine)$12,556,055$28,612,527$44,669,000
25Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn)$11,342,046$28,116,022$44,889,998

Ex-Swiss banker to give Wikileaks 2,000 "celebrities, business leaders and lawmakers from US, UK who secreted away money for tax-evasion purposes"

Posted: 17 Jan 2011 12:25 PM PST
A former Swiss banker was on Monday due to hand over files to WikiLeaks which he alleges detail attempts by wealthy business leaders and lawmakers to evade tax payments.

Rudolf Elmer, a former employee of Swiss-based Bank Julius Baer, told Britain's Observer newspaper on Sunday that the documents include details of about 2,000 accounts held in offshore financial centers. He says the account holders include "high net worth" celebrities, business leaders and lawmakers from the U.S., Britain and Asia.

Elmer's press conference comes two days before he is due to appear before a Zurich regional court to answer charges of coercion and violating Switzerland's strict banking secrecy laws.

He told the Observer newspaper he planned to disclose the new set of files to expose activities in offshore financial centers. "The one thing on which I am absolutely clear is that the banks know, and the big boys know, that money is being secreted away for tax-evasion purposes," he was quoted as telling the newspaper.
Fox News has a few additional quotes in Ex-banker says he's giving Wikileaks files on rich
Rudolf Elmer, an ex-employee of Swiss-based Bank Julius Baer, said there were 2,000 account holders named in the documents, but refused to give details of the companies or individuals involved.

He has previously offered files to WikiLeaks on financial activities in the Cayman Islands and faces a court hearing in Zurich on Wednesday to answer charges of coercion and violating Switzerland's strict banking secrecy laws.

"I do think as a banker I have the right to stand up if something is wrong," said Elmer, who addressed reporters at London's Frontline Club alongside WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

"I am against the system. I know how the system works and I know the day-to-day business. From that point of view, I wanted to let society know what I know. It is damaging our society," Elmer said.

Britain's tax authority declined to comment when asked about Assange's plan to supply details of alleged wrongdoing.

Under the terms of his release on bail, Assange must live at the mansion home of Vaughan Smith, the owner of the Frontline Club. He has compared the regime to "high-tech house arrest," but has recently promised that the flow of leaked documents published by his organization would increase.
If true, and depending who is on the list, this could get interesting in a hurry. So far however, we have seen very little from Wikileaks since the house arrest of Assange.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Recession-Related Dreams (Nightmares) on the Upswing; Some Personal Experiences

Posted: 17 Jan 2011 05:18 PM PST
The LA Times says that worries about financial security have begun to manifest themselves in dreams. Please consider Recession-related dreams on the upswing
House foundations are crumbling in our dreams. Instead of the proverbial sheep guiding our sleep journey, dangerous thugs lurk in the shadows of our minds, and barriers block escape.

Some people, laid off or fearing job loss, dream they're suddenly clueless about familiar work tasks or tortured by competitive co-workers who have morphed into monsters.

It's inevitable, says Deirdre Barrett, a clinical psychologist who teaches at Harvard Medical School and is the editor of Dreaming, the leading professional journal in the field. "We dream about what concerns us when we're awake. In bad times, that is likely to be about financial security."

Recession-related dreams feature cracked foundations and walls in homes, and interlopers moving in. Los Angeles psychiatrist Judith Orloff describes a patient who panicked after her husband — breadwinner for her and their three young children — was laid off in 2009. The couple got far behind in mortgage payments and other bills. The woman dreamed she found strangers living in her house, and she couldn't get in. "Then the strangers turned into aliens.

Walter Berry, who leads a weekly dream group in West Los Angeles, says he's seen these leaps occur overnight. A member of the group, a middle-aged secretary who'd been laid off, described a recurring dream in 2009 about former co-workers deriding and torturing her. Her tormenters turned into monsters, and in one dream she asked them, "Why are you here?" They said, "We just want to show you where to go."

The monsters led her into a long corridor that ended in a desert with beautiful cacti and a nice house for her to live in. She began to think of leaving L.A. for the first time. After greatly expanding her online job search, she landed a job in Phoenix that was better than the one she'd lost. "The dream expanded her horizons," Berry says.

Despite the lack of hard scientific evidence, dream researchers think dreams could hold a trove of insights for people battered by the economy. Wakeful attention and overnight dreaming "are collaborative and interdependent," says Rosalind Cartwright, professor emeritus at the Rush University Medical Center's graduate program in neuroscience.
Recurring Dreams

Please see the article for more dream stories.

My most frequent recurring dream for decades after I graduated from college was that my engineering degree was invalid because I was one credit-hour short.

I had that dream hundreds of times in spite of the fact that at no point ever in either my brief 2-year stint as an engineer or in a lengthy 20-year programming career was I ever in danger of losing my job as a company employee.

I did change careers a second time in the wake of 911 and Y2K after computer consulting jobs dried up.

It's been a while since I have had that dream, but it does still happen on rare occasions still, even though I cannot recall for certain the last time.

The origin of the dream is most certainly the fact that I was 1 hour short heading into the last semester. An engineering professor offered an extra hour credit for anyone willing to complete an extra-credit assignment. I jumped at it given the alternative was another 3-hour engineering course.

The assignment was a computer project that helped land my first programming job. It also helped that my free elective was not archery, but an advanced programming class.

My first job after graduation was engineering job. I landed that job based on one class: computer methods in civil engineering. However, I lasted all of two years as an engineer.

Ever wake up in the middle of your senior year in college realizing you got your degree in the wrong thing? I did.

I hated engineering all along but when I graduated high school, programming was still in its infancy. Guidance counselors at high school did not know anything about programming other than 2 year associates degrees for data entry. Those good in math and science were herded into engineering.

In 1973, the university of Illinois had one of the largest computers in the world, an IBM 360-75. The cheapest laptop today can beat it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Friday, January 14, 2011

WOW

Vincent McCrudden Certainly Not A Fan Of "F#&$*%@ Corrupt Piece Of Goldman Sachs S#*t" Gary Gensler

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From the McCrudden complaint, which cites a letter sent by the Alnbri CEO to a CFTC lawyer T.M.: "You can tell that fucking corrupt piece of Goldman Sachs shit [G.G.] I am coming after him as well. Oh, and your "ban"... shove them up your fucking ass you corrupt mother fucker....Make sure you all show up with [T.M.] and that fucking corrupt fucking midget [G.G.] when you serve me papers. I have something ready for you all." It appears that Vincent sure was passionate about his beliefs... And certainly not a fan of Gary Gensler.
And some more, including the following letter sent to "G.G.":
Hey fucking morons...
  1. Make sure you all show up with [T.M.] and that fucking corrupt fucking midget [G.G.] when you serve me papers. I have something ready for you all.
  2. Make sure you introduce yourselves to me when we meet in court...I will have something there as well for you just in case you fucking cunts are too coward [sic] to not show up and serve me papers in person
I can see two of you are either terrorist or Al Qaeda or something. We have soldiers looking all over the world, and there you are working right there at the good ole boys club of the CFTC. As twice survivor of WTC attacks, I find it pretty funny. Bring your helmets... you all put your name to the wrong fucking person. Fucking cunts!

A review in UK political policy and Austerity Riots

Submitted by: Iseedeadpeople



Happy Friday

The 10 Things That Would Be Different If The Federal Reserve Had Never Been Created

Reprtinted From The Economic Collapse

10 Things That Would Be Different If The Federal Reserve Had Never Been Created
The vast majority of Americans, including many of those who believe that they are "educated" about the Federal Reserve, do not really understand how the Federal Reserve really makes money for the international banking elite.  Many of those opposed to the Federal Reserve will point to the record $80.9 billion in profits that the Federal Reserve made last year as evidence that they are robbing the American people blind.  But then those defending the Federal Reserve will point out that the Fed returned $78.4 billion to the U.S. Treasury.  As a result, the Fed only made a couple billion dollars last year.  Pretty harmless, eh?  Well, actually no.  You see, the money that the Federal Reserve directly makes is not the issue.  Rather, the "magic" of the Federal Reserve system is that it took the power of money creation away from the U.S. government and gave it to the bankers.  Now, the only way that the U.S. government can inject more money into the economy is by going into more debt.  But when new government debt is created, the amount of money to pay the interest on that debt is not also created.  In this way, it was intended by the international bankers that U.S. government debt would expand indefinitely and the U.S. money supply would also expand indefinitely.  In the process, the international bankers would become insanely wealthy by lending money to the U.S. government.
Every single year, hundreds of billions of dollars in profits are made lending money to the U.S. government.
But why in the world should the U.S. government be going into debt to anyone?
Why can't the U.S. government just print more money whenever it wants?
Well, that is not the way our system works.  The U.S. government has given the power of money creation over to a consortium of international private bankers.
Not only is this unconstitutional, but it is also one of the greatest ripoffs in human history.
In 1922, Henry Ford wrote the following....
"The people must be helped to think naturally about money. They must be told what it is, and what makes it money, and what are the possible tricks of the present system which put nations and peoples under control of the few."
It is important to try to understand how the international banking elite became so fabulously wealthy.  One of the primary ways that this was accomplished was by gaining control over the issuance of national currencies and by trapping large national governments in colossal debt spirals.
The U.S. national debt problem simply cannot be fixed under the current system.  U.S. government debt has been mathematically designed to expand forever.  It is a trap from which there is no escape.
Many liberals won't listen because they don't really care about ever paying off the debt, and most conservatives won't listen because they are convinced we can solve the national debt problem if we just get a bunch of "good conservatives" into positions of power, but the truth is that we have such a horrific debt problem because it was designed to be this way from the beginning.
So how would America be different if we could go back to 1913 and keep the Federal Reserve Act from ever being passed?  Well, the following are 10 things that would be different if the Federal Reserve had never been created....
#1 If the U.S. government had been issuing debt-free money all this time, the U.S. government could conceivably have a national debt of zero dollars.  Instead, we currently have a national debt that is over 14 trillion dollars.
#2 If the U.S. government had been issuing debt-free money all this time, the U.S. government would likely not be spending one penny on interest payments.  Instead, the U.S. government spent over 413 billion dollars on interest on the national debt during fiscal 2010.  This is money that belonged to U.S. taxpayers that was transferred to the U.S. government which in turn was transferred to wealthy international bankers and other foreign governments.  It is being projected that the U.S. government will be paying 900 billion dollars just in interest on the national debt by the year 2019.
#3 If the U.S. government could issue debt-free money, there would not even have to be a debate about raising "the debt ceiling", because such a debate would not even be necessary.
#4 If the U.S. government could issue debt-free money, it is conceivable that we would not even need the IRS.  You doubt this?  Well, the truth is that the United States did just fine for well over a hundred years without a national income tax.  But about the same time the Federal Reserve was created a national income tax was instituted as well.  The whole idea was that the wealth of the American people would be transferred to the U.S. government by force and then transferred into the hands of the ultra-wealthy in the form of interest payments.
#5 If the Federal Reserve did not exist, we would not be on the verge of national insolvency.  The Congressional Budget Office is projecting that U.S. government debt held by the public will reach a staggering 716 percent of GDP by the year 2080.  Remember when I used the term "debt spiral" earlier?  Well, this is what a debt spiral looks like....
#6 If the Federal Reserve did not exist, the big Wall Street banks would not have such an overwhelming advantage.  Most Americans simply have no idea that over the last several years the Federal Reserve has been giving gigantic piles of nearly interest-free money to the big Wall Street banks which they turned right around and started lending to the federal government at a much higher rate of return.  I don't know about you, but if I was allowed to do that I could make a whole bunch of money very quickly.  In fact, it has come out that the Federal Reserve made over $9 trillion in overnight loans to major banks, large financial institutions and other "friends" during the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.
#7 If the Federal Reserve did not exist, it is theoretically conceivable that we would have an economy with little to no inflation.  Of course that would greatly depend on the discipline of our government officials (which is not very great at this point), but the sad truth is that our current system is always going to produce inflation.  In fact, the Federal Reserve system was originally designed to be inflationary.  Just check out the inflation chart posted below.  The U.S. never had ongoing problems with inflation before the Fed was created, but now it is just wildly out of control....
#8 If the Federal Reserve had never been created, the U.S. dollar would not be a dying currency.  Since the Federal Reserve was created, the U.S. dollar has lost well over 95 percent of its purchasing power.  By constantly inflating the currency, it transfers financial power away from those already holding the wealth (the American people) to those that are able to create more currency and more government debt.  Back in 1913, the total U.S. national debt was just under 3 billion dollars.  Today, the U.S. government is spending approximately 6.85 million dollars per minute, and the U.S. national debt is increasing by over 4 billion dollars per day.
#9 If the Federal Reserve did not exist, we would not have an unelected, unaccountable "fourth branch of government" running around that has gotten completely and totally out of control.  Even some members of Congress are now openly complaining about how much power the Fed has.  For example, Ron Paul told MSNBC last year that he believes that the Federal Reserve is now more powerful than Congress.....
"The regulations should be on the Federal Reserve. We should have transparency of the Federal Reserve. They can create trillions of dollars to bail out their friends, and we don’t even have any transparency of this. They’re more powerful than the Congress."
#10 If the Federal Reserve had never been created, the American people would be much more free.  We would not be enslaved to this horrific national debt.  Our politicians would not have to run around the globe begging people to lend us money.  Representatives that we directly elect would be the ones setting national monetary policy.  Our politicians would be much less under the influence of the international banking elite.  We would not be at the mercy of the financial bubbles that the Fed has constantly been creating.
There is a reason why so many of the most prominent politicians from the early years of the United States were so passionately against a central bank.  The following is a February 1834 quote by President Andrew Jackson about the evils of central banking....
I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the Bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the Bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out and, by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out.
But we didn't listen to men like Andrew Jackson.
We allowed the Federal Reserve to be created in 1913 and we have allowed it to develop into an absolute monstrosity over the past century.
Now we are drowning in debt and we are on the verge of national bankruptcy.
Will the American people wake up before it is too late?

MA Congressman John Tierney's Wife (D-Mass) gets 30 days in Jail for Tax Fraud

Submitted by: Iseedeadpeople
First the good news: Occassionaly and most certainly not very often those that believe they can use their affiliation with the politico establishment to operate above the law get theirs in the end. Such is one case and case in point that regardless of party affiliation or political party affilliation ALL are subject to the POWER of the dark side of our pals at the IRS. If there is one agency in the U.S. government that WILL get you in the end it is the IRS. Hats off to our brothers and sisters at the agency for occassionaly crossing the political lines to ensure ALL are accountable and for lack of a better word taxable...

The Bad News: Given the nasty nature of these charges in that it is somewhat clear by the nature of the charges that Tierney's wife may have acted intentionally with mal intent the 30 days in Jail may seem to be a slap on the wrist in that if it were me or you we could see ten years in a gladiator academy for such infractions.

Congressman's wife gets 30 days in jail for tax conviction
By Jordan Fabian - 01/13/11 03:13 PM ET

The wife of Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.) was sentenced to 30 days in jail Thursday after pleading guilty to helping her brother engage in tax fraud.
Patricia Tierney, 59, pleaded guilty in October to four counts of helping her brother, fugitive Robert Eremian, prepare false federal tax returns.

 
Tierney will also serve two years of supervised release, with the first five months as house arrest, according to the Boston Globe
Tierney had agreed to a plea deal with prosecutors that would have required her to serve two years of probation with 90 days of home confinement. But U.S. District Judge William Young said he was not bound to obey the terms of the deal.
"There must be an actual sanction," Young said. Tierney will begin her jail term Feb. 28.
Charges against Eremian state that he moved his illegal gambling outlet to Antigua in the late 1990s and dubbed it Sports Offshore, which included a website and telephone line for his U.S. customers. He allegedly employed "agents" in the U.S. who helped recruit customers and collect gambling debts from them, funneling the money to Antigua.

Tierney's wife pleaded guilty to managing her brother's U.S. assets through a Bank of America account in Massachusetts. She was alleged to have kept detailed records of financial transactions related to the account and gave information to her brother's tax preparer that stated his income as commission from his job as a computer consultant.
Under house arrest, Tierney will be allowed to leave her home for work, religious services, medical appointments and care for her mother, according to the Globe.

Morning Gold Fix: January 14

Courtesy of GoldCore
Gold and silver have fallen in most currencies today but are higher in the “commodity currencies” of Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars, and flat in Swiss francs. Gold and silver are both slightly higher for the week in US dollar terms but weaker in terms of other currencies.

Gold is currently trading at $1,365.95/oz, €1,023.11/oz and £861.20/oz.

click for full size
Baltic Dry Index – 5 Years (Daily)

European equity indices are lower after a mixed night on Asian equity bourses which saw the Nikkei flat and the Chinese CSI300 fall 1.36%. US equity index futures are marginally lower. Bond markets have not seen much movement but UK and Swiss (10 year) bond yields have risen to 3.63% and 1.81% respectively.

click for full size
Gold in USD and British Sovereigns – 10 year (Weekly)

The risk of growing inflation was acknowledged by Trichet after European inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in more than two years in December, led by surging food and energy costs.

Stagflation risk in some periphery euro nations is further complicating the ECB’s efforts to deal with the sovereign debt crisis. Not helping matters is the fact that the ECB looks increasingly like the buyer of last resort of euro government bonds and ‘quantitative easing European style’ will have ramifications for the multi-state currency.

Interest rates must rise internationally in the coming months to protect fiat currencies and contain inflation, but the risk is that this can lead to a sharp decline in economic growth and potentially a severe recession or global depression.

click for full size
Gold in USD and British Sovereigns – 60 Day (Daily) – Sovereign Premiums Rise

China’s central bank, responding to surging inflation in China, said that it will raise the reserve requirement ratio for the nation’s banks by 50 basis points. Once the inflation genie is out of the lamp it is very difficult to get it back in as was seen in the 1970s.

The extremely fragile nature of the recent global recovery is seen in the Baltic Dry Index (see chart above) which is back near levels seen during the financial crisis in late 2008. This may be a harbinger of a global recession.

George Soros’s Biggest Buy is Gold - $64 Million in the Last Quarter
Many of those calling gold a bubble have done so simply on the basis of George Soros’s recent comments regarding gold being the ultimate asset bubble or becoming the ultimate asset bubble. Soros’s comments were somewhat cryptic and had some commentators claim that Soros was saying gold is a bubble and others claiming that Soros was simply saying gold would become the ultimate bubble.

George Soros said subsequently “It’s all a question of where are you in that bubble ... The current conditions of actual deflationary pressures and fear of inflation is pretty ideal for gold to rise.” This would suggest that he is bullish on gold, contrary to much of the media headlines and commentary.

As ever with hedge fund managers and large investors it is important to watch what they do rather than what they say. In the last quarter, Soros's biggest buy wasn't actually a stock. His firm spent $64 million on shares of the iShares Gold Trust (IAU).

When George Soros begins liquidating his gold holdings, it may be an indication that the gold bull market has run its course and it is time to reduce allocations.

Demand for Physical Bullion Sees Silver Eagle Sales Soar and Premiums Rise
This week has seen further confirmation of very robust physical demand internationally and especially in Asia. This was seen in premiums rising to near 2 year highs in Hong Kong and Singapore and reports of shortages of gold kilo bars. The Perth Mint also reported unrelenting demand for gold bullion bars.

The tightness in the bullion market is not confined to Asia. There has been another surge in demand for silver American Eagles as seen in the figures from the US Mint. Zero Hedge reported that Mike Krieger made a disturbing observation on the trend: "In the first 12 days of January 3.4 million silver eagles have been sold. I have never seen anything like this. The amount of physical being taken off the market on this paper sell off is extraordinary. We must be very close to the end."

By “the end” Krieger means the point in time when the physical demand for silver bullion (which is a very small market) is large enough to force some Wall Street banks to close their massive concentrated short positions, thereby creating a short squeeze that propels silver to above its nominal high of 1980 (near $50/oz) to much higher prices.

Further confirmation of growing tightness in bullion markets is seen in the growing premium being paid for British Gold Sovereigns. Sovereigns are one of the most widely traded bullion coins in the world and the price of Sovereigns is correlated with the spot price (see chart above). Lately there has been an interesting development which has seen the spot price of gold fall while the premium paid for Sovereigns has risen (see chart above).

Demand for Sovereigns remains strong especially in the US where investors like the liquidity and smaller size (0.2354 troy oz) of the coins, and in the UK where they are Capital Gains Tax (CGT) free with CGT having recently been increased.

It is too early to tell whether this is a trend that will continue but with the continuing robust demand for Sovereigns it is likely to do so and it is worth keeping an eye on it. The trend strongly suggests that the recent weakness is short-term momentum players and that it is short term tech-driven rather than long term technical and fundamental-driven.

Silver
Silver is currently trading $28.45/oz, €21.31/oz and £17.94/oz.
Pltanium
Platinum is currently trading at $1,803.25, palladium at $790/oz and rhodium at $2,375/oz.
News
Bloomberg) Gold May Rise on Speculation About Chinese Demand, Survey Shows
Gold may rise on speculation that demand from China, the world’s second-largest consumer after India, will increase, according to a survey. Seven of 12 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 58 percent, said the metal will climb next week. Four predicted lower prices and one was neutral. Gold for February delivery was up 1.1 percent for this week at $1,383.80 an ounce at 11:45 a.m. yesterday on the Comex in New York. Futures were heading for a third weekly gain in four weeks after rallying 30 percent in 2010, the 10th consecutive annual increase. Some investors purchase bullion as a hedge against inflation, which was running at the fastest pace in more than two years in China as of November. The country’s central bank raised interest rates last month. “Fundamentals remain strong, with strong physical demand, especially from China,” said Mark O’Byrne, executive director of brokerage GoldCore Ltd. in Dublin. “From a technical point of view, the trend remains bullish.” The attached chart tracks the results of the Bloomberg survey, with the red bars derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates. Readings below zero signal that most respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the gold price. The data are as of Jan. 7. The weekly gold survey that started six years ago has forecast prices accurately in 196 of 345 weeks, or 57 percent of the time.

(Bloomberg) China Should Boost Gold Reserves, Academic Writes in Newspaper
China should consider increasing its gold reserves given the “record growth” in the nation’s foreign exchange reserves, Jin Baisong, a research scholar with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, which is affiliated with the Ministry of Commerce, wrote in a commentary published in today’s China Daily newspaper. China should keep its foreign exchange reserves at a “reasonable” level of $500 billion to $800 billion, with the remainder of reserve assets entrusted to financial institutions for investment in “profitable ventures,” Jin wrote. The nation also needs to hold U.S. Treasuries as an important economic “safeguard,” Jin wrote. If China sold its U.S. Treasuries, it may cause “panic selling” and trigger a “dollar crisis,” Jin wrote. That would weaken China’s economy and the nation’s security, Jin wrote.

(Bloomberg) European gold coin sales rising from early 2011
European gold coin sales have risen from “very low levels” at the beginning of the year, UBS AG said. Sales over the next few weeks will be “an important barometer of public reaction to any new Eurozone strategy,” UBS analyst Edel Tully wrote in a report e-mailed today. An expansion of European steps to help indebted countries “could drive a disillusioned German public to turn to gold, as they did in the second quarter last year,” she wrote.

(Bloomberg) Gold May Rise to $1,600 on Low Rates, Debts, GFMS Says
Gold may rise to $1,600 an ounce in 2011, 16 percent more than today, as low interest rates and the possibility of sovereign debt defaults spur demand for the precious metal, according to London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. Gold may attract a “major expansion in investment before the gold bubble inevitably bursts,” London-based GFMS said today in a report. Gold investment, including in bars and coins, will jump 15 percent in the first six months of this year from the same period last year, the researcher estimates. “We are looking at more of the price strength to occur later into the year,” said Neil Meader, head of research at GFMS in London. In the first half, “I certainly don’t think we could rule out a correction of substance. That could easily mean the low $1,300s” an ounce,” he said. Gold climbed 30 percent last year, rising to a record $1,432.50 an ounce in New York, as governments became net buyers of the metal for the first time since 1988, led by Russia’s purchase of 135 metric tons, according to GFMS. Jewelry demand rose 16 percent and bar hoarding more than doubled, the researcher estimates. “For prices to stay firm, the market is clearly dependent on investment,” GFMS said. “Investors and some official sector institutions will be very concerned at the growing risks of currency debasement, be that via inflation or depreciation, and of sovereign debt default.” Gold futures for February delivery fell $2.80, or 0.2 percent, to $1,383 an ounce by 11:58 a.m. on the Comex in New York.

(Bloomberg) Gold ‘Overdue’ for Drop, Rice Will Gain, Rogers Says
Gold is “overdue for a rest” and probably will fall after a decade of gains that sent prices to a record, said Jim Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999. While gold “may go down for awhile,” the metal is “going to go over $2,000 in this decade,” Rogers, who owns gold, silver and rice, said today during a presentation to business executives in Chicago. Gold touched a record $1,432.50 an ounce in New York on Dec. 7. The price closed today at $1,387. “I’d rather own rice,” Rogers said. “I’d rather own something that’s more depressed than gold.” Agricultural commodities are “going to boom” as demand increases in developing markets, primarily in Asia, he said. All commodities will be supported by the weakening dollar, which is losing value because Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is “printing money” by buying Treasuries in an effort to shore up the U.S. economy, Rogers said. “Paper money is made of cotton, and I’m long cotton, by the way,” Rogers said. “One reason I’m long cotton is because Dr. Bernanke is out there running the printing presses as fast as he can.” Rogers said he doesn’t own shares in U.S. companies and is short U.S. long-term treasury bonds. The Chinese renminbi may provide “almost sure profits over the next five to 10 years,” he said. “In the future, it’s the stock broker who’s going to be driving the cabs,” Rogers said. “The smart stock brokers will learn to drive tractors, and drive them for the farmers, because the farmers will have the money.”

(Financial Times) Gold price bubble a “high probability” says Deutsche Bank
The formation of a gold price bubble is a “high probability event”, warns Michael Lewis, commodity strategist at Deutsche Bank.

Mr Lewis says that the price of gold would need to rise above the $2,000 an ounce mark to represent a bubble but he notes that the factors that have driven the market higher in recent years are likely to continue in 2011.

... Mr Lewis also warns that a collapse of the dollar “cannot be dismissed out of hand” given the significant fiscal consolidation required in the US.

... He also expects central banks, particularly in Asia, to diversify their foreign exchange reserves further by increasing their holdings of gold and he says inflows into gold exchange traded funds will continue to increase, reflecting investors’ desire to find protection against the twin threats of deflation or rising inflation.

... Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital, says that investment demand for gold is likely to slow towards the end of 2011 but it will still be strong enough to push the price to a fresh record high.

Barclays is forecasting that gold will trade this year between a low of $1,300 and a high of $1,620, helped by the growing interest in physically backed ETFs and buying by central banks.