Thursday, April 14, 2011
Why Congress Should Vote No On Raising Debt Ceiling by: Chris Whalen
By Christopher Whalen
The opinions expressed are his own.
“A spectre is haunting Europe — the spectre of communism. All the powers of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre: Pope and Tsar, Metternich and Guizot, French Radicals and German police-spies.”
–Karl Marx – Friedrich Engels
The Communist Manifesto
There is a specter haunting the industrial nations, too — the specter of debt default and deflation. All of the powers of the post-WWII regime of neo-Keynesian economic management have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this specter: Fed Chairman Bernanke, European Central Bank Head Jean-Claude Trichet, Democrats in the American Congress and the German centrist tendency under Angela Merkel.
All of these champions of the status quo ante are, ironically enough, serving as agents for the bond holders of the largest US and EU banks, the clients of PIMCO, Black Rock and even my friend David Kotok at Cumberland Advisors. These agents of the global creditor class are betting on the likes of Bernanke, Trichet and Merkel to collect their debts for them like so many China gunboats — and thereby plunge hundreds of millions of people into penury for decades to come.
It is no small irony that the interests of the banks and bond holders in the US are being protected by a Democrat from Chicago named Barack Obama. Far from being a leftist, Obama is a global technocrat who turned out to be the most perfectly compliant stooge for the interests of the large banks and institutional investors. With Timothy Geithner at Treasury and former JPMorgan banker William Daley at the White House, the only decision Obama needs to make every day is what shirt to wear.
On Capitol Hill, however, the long slumbering Republicans are starting to discover the political power of fiscal sobriety. In the negotiations with the White House over the budget for fiscal 2011, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) managed to win some significant concessions from the White House on spending issues — even if entitlements and military spending were off the table this time around. The next and more important fight comes over the question of raising the US debt ceiling. Once again, President Obama is not even in the game.
Secretary Geithner and his boss, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jaime Dimon, have made clear their distaste for a fight over extending the debt ceiling, in part because a debt default by the US would end the pretense of “too big to fail.” If Washington is willing to contemplate a default by the US Treasury, who cares about the fortress balance sheet of JP Morgan and other US zombie banks? But for a number of reasons, democratically elected governments from Lisbon to Dublin to Washington need to begin the process of financial restructuring whether the banks like it or not. And all of the political servants of the banksters are doing their best to avoid debt write downs.
In Ireland, for example, the new government of Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny is in a struggle with Trichet and his vile contemporaries at the ECB. The Euro central bank is essentially trying to keep together an under-funded bailout of the continent’s corporate and bank debts at the expense of public taxpayers. So muted is the political discourse in Western Europe that people are barely protesting — at least not yet. But offering Ireland the choice of default or decades of deflation and unemployment to repay its foreign obligations at par is untenable and risks comparisons with the German war reparations after WWI.
The Kenny government should reject the self-serving advice of the German-dominated ECB as well as the technocrats inside Ireland’s finance ministry, and tell Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy to try harder. Specifically, if the ECB and the core nations of the EU are not willing to offer Ireland more generous terms to bail out the private debts of EU banks, then the Kenny government should take the example of the people of Iceland and tell the technocrats in Brussels an emphatic “no” to bailing in the Irish bank debt at public expense.
Frankly, if you weigh the trade off between the immediate cash flow benefit to Ireland of walking away from its foreign debt and being cut off from the global capital markets, as Trichet has threatened to Kenny, a default seems the obvious choice. And with Portugal and other “peripheral” states of the EU tottering, the Kenny government has more leverage than it knows. Putting a gun to the head of Trichet right about now and daring him to blink might prove a very satisfying experience for any Irish officials with the guts to play the hand God has dealt to them.
In Washington as well, some Republicans are starting to appreciate that saying no to more debt and devaluation a la the Paul Krugman school of economic mismanagement is good politics. It is wrong to call Krugman and his ilk “Keynesians.” Lord Keynes was neither an apologist for debt or inflation, nor was he a free trader. He valued strong national industry and financial markets that were only supplemented by global capital and trade flows. What would Keynes tell Ireland today?
For the same reasons that the Kenny government needs to impose haircuts on Ireland’s creditors, the US Congress needs to vote no on the debt ceiling increase as part of a larger shift in thinking on debt and spending in Congress. Just as the people of Iceland have done the right thing by saying no to repaying corporate debts of UK and Dutch banks (all of which are now nationalized naturally), Americans need to take a page from the history books and begin the actual process of default on all manner of debt and entitlements obligations.
The only way we can force our citizens and also our trading partners to talk about the economic issues that are driving America’s growing mountain of debt is to stop adding to the pile. The role of the dollar as the primary means of exchange for global commerce and finance are the twin evils at the heart of the US fiscal disease. The role of the dollar as the world’s “reserve currency” is likewise a terrible millstone around the necks of American workers.
Saying “no” on raising the debt ceiling is the way for deficit hawks in Congress in both parties to seize the fiscal agenda and start a long overdue conversation about America’s place in the world. As I wrote in my book, Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream, this discussion must include an end to the dollar as the primary global means of exchange. When the dollar ceases to be the global currency, then the Fed can no longer monetize deficits with impunity as today.
One way of forcing this adjustment process is to start imposing losses on holders of dollar debt. Painful as it will be, helping the world to readjust the level of debt in the industrial nations back to realistic levels and rebalance the global currency markets into a peer-to-peer framework is a necessary process if America is ever to achieve a sustainable economic model. The only question is when and where will emerge the political leadership to do the right thing and begin to actively restructure debts.
Barack Obama has already failed that test of leadership by studiously avoiding any response to the US real estate meltdown, but new leaders in many heavily indebted nations will face the same issues — chronic levels of debt that will only grow heavier as and when global interest rates rise. If the ECB manages to bully Prime Minister Kenny in Ireland, do they really expect a more malleable regime after the next election?
The looming threat of debt is why we should expect to see a majority of Republicans and perhaps more than a few Democrats in Congress seek to block any increase in the US debt ceiling unless the measure includes a balanced budget amendment to the US Constitution.
My view is that Congress should vote down any debt ceiling measure unless President Obama agrees to sign the balanced budget amendment. Even if Secretary Geithner has to run the US government on cash, like the good people of Iceland and Ireland today, it will be a good thing for America’s political debate to default — at least for a few weeks. Then people will know that the once unthinkable is very possible.
The opinions expressed are his own.
“A spectre is haunting Europe — the spectre of communism. All the powers of old Europe have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre: Pope and Tsar, Metternich and Guizot, French Radicals and German police-spies.”
–Karl Marx – Friedrich Engels
The Communist Manifesto
There is a specter haunting the industrial nations, too — the specter of debt default and deflation. All of the powers of the post-WWII regime of neo-Keynesian economic management have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this specter: Fed Chairman Bernanke, European Central Bank Head Jean-Claude Trichet, Democrats in the American Congress and the German centrist tendency under Angela Merkel.
All of these champions of the status quo ante are, ironically enough, serving as agents for the bond holders of the largest US and EU banks, the clients of PIMCO, Black Rock and even my friend David Kotok at Cumberland Advisors. These agents of the global creditor class are betting on the likes of Bernanke, Trichet and Merkel to collect their debts for them like so many China gunboats — and thereby plunge hundreds of millions of people into penury for decades to come.
It is no small irony that the interests of the banks and bond holders in the US are being protected by a Democrat from Chicago named Barack Obama. Far from being a leftist, Obama is a global technocrat who turned out to be the most perfectly compliant stooge for the interests of the large banks and institutional investors. With Timothy Geithner at Treasury and former JPMorgan banker William Daley at the White House, the only decision Obama needs to make every day is what shirt to wear.
On Capitol Hill, however, the long slumbering Republicans are starting to discover the political power of fiscal sobriety. In the negotiations with the White House over the budget for fiscal 2011, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) managed to win some significant concessions from the White House on spending issues — even if entitlements and military spending were off the table this time around. The next and more important fight comes over the question of raising the US debt ceiling. Once again, President Obama is not even in the game.
Secretary Geithner and his boss, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jaime Dimon, have made clear their distaste for a fight over extending the debt ceiling, in part because a debt default by the US would end the pretense of “too big to fail.” If Washington is willing to contemplate a default by the US Treasury, who cares about the fortress balance sheet of JP Morgan and other US zombie banks? But for a number of reasons, democratically elected governments from Lisbon to Dublin to Washington need to begin the process of financial restructuring whether the banks like it or not. And all of the political servants of the banksters are doing their best to avoid debt write downs.
In Ireland, for example, the new government of Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny is in a struggle with Trichet and his vile contemporaries at the ECB. The Euro central bank is essentially trying to keep together an under-funded bailout of the continent’s corporate and bank debts at the expense of public taxpayers. So muted is the political discourse in Western Europe that people are barely protesting — at least not yet. But offering Ireland the choice of default or decades of deflation and unemployment to repay its foreign obligations at par is untenable and risks comparisons with the German war reparations after WWI.
The Kenny government should reject the self-serving advice of the German-dominated ECB as well as the technocrats inside Ireland’s finance ministry, and tell Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy to try harder. Specifically, if the ECB and the core nations of the EU are not willing to offer Ireland more generous terms to bail out the private debts of EU banks, then the Kenny government should take the example of the people of Iceland and tell the technocrats in Brussels an emphatic “no” to bailing in the Irish bank debt at public expense.
Frankly, if you weigh the trade off between the immediate cash flow benefit to Ireland of walking away from its foreign debt and being cut off from the global capital markets, as Trichet has threatened to Kenny, a default seems the obvious choice. And with Portugal and other “peripheral” states of the EU tottering, the Kenny government has more leverage than it knows. Putting a gun to the head of Trichet right about now and daring him to blink might prove a very satisfying experience for any Irish officials with the guts to play the hand God has dealt to them.
In Washington as well, some Republicans are starting to appreciate that saying no to more debt and devaluation a la the Paul Krugman school of economic mismanagement is good politics. It is wrong to call Krugman and his ilk “Keynesians.” Lord Keynes was neither an apologist for debt or inflation, nor was he a free trader. He valued strong national industry and financial markets that were only supplemented by global capital and trade flows. What would Keynes tell Ireland today?
For the same reasons that the Kenny government needs to impose haircuts on Ireland’s creditors, the US Congress needs to vote no on the debt ceiling increase as part of a larger shift in thinking on debt and spending in Congress. Just as the people of Iceland have done the right thing by saying no to repaying corporate debts of UK and Dutch banks (all of which are now nationalized naturally), Americans need to take a page from the history books and begin the actual process of default on all manner of debt and entitlements obligations.
The only way we can force our citizens and also our trading partners to talk about the economic issues that are driving America’s growing mountain of debt is to stop adding to the pile. The role of the dollar as the primary means of exchange for global commerce and finance are the twin evils at the heart of the US fiscal disease. The role of the dollar as the world’s “reserve currency” is likewise a terrible millstone around the necks of American workers.
Saying “no” on raising the debt ceiling is the way for deficit hawks in Congress in both parties to seize the fiscal agenda and start a long overdue conversation about America’s place in the world. As I wrote in my book, Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream, this discussion must include an end to the dollar as the primary global means of exchange. When the dollar ceases to be the global currency, then the Fed can no longer monetize deficits with impunity as today.
One way of forcing this adjustment process is to start imposing losses on holders of dollar debt. Painful as it will be, helping the world to readjust the level of debt in the industrial nations back to realistic levels and rebalance the global currency markets into a peer-to-peer framework is a necessary process if America is ever to achieve a sustainable economic model. The only question is when and where will emerge the political leadership to do the right thing and begin to actively restructure debts.
Barack Obama has already failed that test of leadership by studiously avoiding any response to the US real estate meltdown, but new leaders in many heavily indebted nations will face the same issues — chronic levels of debt that will only grow heavier as and when global interest rates rise. If the ECB manages to bully Prime Minister Kenny in Ireland, do they really expect a more malleable regime after the next election?
The looming threat of debt is why we should expect to see a majority of Republicans and perhaps more than a few Democrats in Congress seek to block any increase in the US debt ceiling unless the measure includes a balanced budget amendment to the US Constitution.
My view is that Congress should vote down any debt ceiling measure unless President Obama agrees to sign the balanced budget amendment. Even if Secretary Geithner has to run the US government on cash, like the good people of Iceland and Ireland today, it will be a good thing for America’s political debate to default — at least for a few weeks. Then people will know that the once unthinkable is very possible.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Research Summary 4/13/11
Submitted by: Francis Soyer 4/13/11
News:
•Obama Said to Call for Entitlement Cuts, Higher Taxes (Bloomberg) Change we can believe in yeahhh!!!! What a clown...
•Banks Face Sovereign Debt Scrutiny in EU Stress Tests (Bloomberg)
•ECB: Ireland’s Taxpayers Must Share the Pain (FT)
•BRICS Push Resource-Hungry China to Buy Finished Goods (Bloomberg)
•China’s Nuclear Freeze to Last Until 2012 (FT)
•TEPCO still working on plan to end Japan nuclear crisis (Reuters)
•Schneider Says Currently No Talks With Tyco About Alliance (Bloomberg)
•Portugal's Leaders Bicker Over Bailout (WSJ)
•Chinese Companies Go on Global Bond Spree (FT)
Overnight Markets:
France CAC 40 4,011 +33.99 (+0.85%)
Germany DAX 100 7,180 +76.86 (+1.08%)
Hong Kong* Hang Seng 24,135 +158.66 (+0.66%)
Japan* Nikkei 225 9,641 +85.92 (+0.90%)
U.K. FTSE 100 6,021 +56.47 (+0.95%)
GFMS 2011 Gold Survey Released, Sees Gold Price Surpassing $1,600 Before Year End
Reuters) - Demand for gold bars grew strongly last year, helping lift overall physical investment despite weaker inflows into exchange-traded funds, metals consultancy GFMS said in its annual Gold Report on Wednesday.
Fed POMO Day today
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Van Hoisington Eviscerates QE2: Full Q1 Review And Outlook
Van Hoisington shares a good analysis at the reverse psychology that the prevailing crowd grasped, and yet was completely lost on the Ivy League educated Academics at the Marriner Eccles building.
If the objectives of Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) were to: a) raise interest rates; b) slow economic growth; c) encourage speculation, and d) eviscerate the standard of living of the average American family, then it has been enormously successful. Clearly, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight these results represent the Federal Reserve’s impact on the U.S. economy, regardless of their claims to the contrary.
For example, the Fed promoted the idea that implementation of QE1 and QE2 would lower interest rates. Apparently this fantasy was based on the assumption that the flow of their purchases would heavily offset (and in the case of QE2 almost fully offset) the flow of new debt being issued by the U.S. Treasury. This flow analysis appears irrefutable in concept, but actually interest rates rose across the yield curve in both cases. Why? Concentrating on the flow of Treasury debt, apparently the Fed failed to take into account that the existing stock of outstanding Treasury debt totaled nearly $8 trillion. The holders included individuals, mutual funds, pension plans, insurance companies, state and local governments and foreigners. Their actions indicate that they perceived Federal Reserve activity to be inflationary, and therefore harmful to their position. Their response was to reduce their relative holdings of Treasuries and purchase riskier assets. Interest rates rose. One large investor famously sold all his Treasuries—a rational choice in the shorter end of the Treasury market as some day QE2 will have to be reversed.
Why the Fed would believe the economy could benefit from the addition of $600 billion (the QE2 target) in reserves to a banking system that already had over $1.1 trillion in unused, idle, but potentially inflationary reserves on hand nearly defies understanding. The action, however, was not lost on holders of the $8 trillion Treasury securities outstanding.
This increase in the level of interest rates occurred, not only during QE2, but in QE1 as well. Thus the Federal Reserve engineered a rate increase, and the injection of excess reserves had several other deleterious ramifications for the U.S. economy.
According to Van Hoisignton this is what needs to happen:
Presently the Fed is odd man out among the world’s leading central banks. A major divergence in opinion has risen between the Fed on one side, and the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, and the PBOC on the other side. These major foreign central banks, unlike the Fed, believe that extreme monetary intervention has contributed to higher inflation. For that reason the ECB has taken rates higher to stop inflation tendencies and the BOE is preparing to take initial steps to remove extreme monetary accommodation. Such actions are likely to produce lower inflation and better results than Fed policy. While terminating QE2 will not result in a restoration of the Fed’s balance to a reasonable size, this is an essential first step. Such a move will serve to reinforce actions by the ECB, BOE and PBOC. As such, the global upturn in inflation will reverse, thereby placing the global economy on a more stable footing. risk adverse investments. This will release funds for the mortgage market and credit worthy state and local governments. Upward pressure on commodity prices will abate. This will begin to mitigate the downward pressure on real wage income and consumer confidence. The lower commodity prices will also serve to unwind the corporate margin squeeze that resulted from the higher commodity costs.
While the economy will slow initially, the drop in inflation over time should lift real income and serve to stabilize the economy. The dollar should firm, encouraging foreign investors to place additional funds in U.S. markets. Taken together, these factors should give the economy the opportunity to stand on its own, rather than rely on massive governmental interventions whose potentially negative and unintended consequences are unknown.
The evidence of the past three years seems clear in that monetary and fiscal policy have been unable to improve the average American’s standard of living. Time will be required to reestablish balance sheets to more normal levels, and in the interim disinflationary/deflationary tendencies will be ascendant. This environment is favorable for holders of long dated Treasuries. Positioning for an inflation boom will prove to be disappointing.
We agree. Which is why this outlook will never be realized. The Fed will simply never accept the risk of another bout of deflation. Period.
If the objectives of Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) were to: a) raise interest rates; b) slow economic growth; c) encourage speculation, and d) eviscerate the standard of living of the average American family, then it has been enormously successful. Clearly, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight these results represent the Federal Reserve’s impact on the U.S. economy, regardless of their claims to the contrary.
For example, the Fed promoted the idea that implementation of QE1 and QE2 would lower interest rates. Apparently this fantasy was based on the assumption that the flow of their purchases would heavily offset (and in the case of QE2 almost fully offset) the flow of new debt being issued by the U.S. Treasury. This flow analysis appears irrefutable in concept, but actually interest rates rose across the yield curve in both cases. Why? Concentrating on the flow of Treasury debt, apparently the Fed failed to take into account that the existing stock of outstanding Treasury debt totaled nearly $8 trillion. The holders included individuals, mutual funds, pension plans, insurance companies, state and local governments and foreigners. Their actions indicate that they perceived Federal Reserve activity to be inflationary, and therefore harmful to their position. Their response was to reduce their relative holdings of Treasuries and purchase riskier assets. Interest rates rose. One large investor famously sold all his Treasuries—a rational choice in the shorter end of the Treasury market as some day QE2 will have to be reversed.
Why the Fed would believe the economy could benefit from the addition of $600 billion (the QE2 target) in reserves to a banking system that already had over $1.1 trillion in unused, idle, but potentially inflationary reserves on hand nearly defies understanding. The action, however, was not lost on holders of the $8 trillion Treasury securities outstanding.
This increase in the level of interest rates occurred, not only during QE2, but in QE1 as well. Thus the Federal Reserve engineered a rate increase, and the injection of excess reserves had several other deleterious ramifications for the U.S. economy.
According to Van Hoisignton this is what needs to happen:
Presently the Fed is odd man out among the world’s leading central banks. A major divergence in opinion has risen between the Fed on one side, and the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, and the PBOC on the other side. These major foreign central banks, unlike the Fed, believe that extreme monetary intervention has contributed to higher inflation. For that reason the ECB has taken rates higher to stop inflation tendencies and the BOE is preparing to take initial steps to remove extreme monetary accommodation. Such actions are likely to produce lower inflation and better results than Fed policy. While terminating QE2 will not result in a restoration of the Fed’s balance to a reasonable size, this is an essential first step. Such a move will serve to reinforce actions by the ECB, BOE and PBOC. As such, the global upturn in inflation will reverse, thereby placing the global economy on a more stable footing. risk adverse investments. This will release funds for the mortgage market and credit worthy state and local governments. Upward pressure on commodity prices will abate. This will begin to mitigate the downward pressure on real wage income and consumer confidence. The lower commodity prices will also serve to unwind the corporate margin squeeze that resulted from the higher commodity costs.
While the economy will slow initially, the drop in inflation over time should lift real income and serve to stabilize the economy. The dollar should firm, encouraging foreign investors to place additional funds in U.S. markets. Taken together, these factors should give the economy the opportunity to stand on its own, rather than rely on massive governmental interventions whose potentially negative and unintended consequences are unknown.
The evidence of the past three years seems clear in that monetary and fiscal policy have been unable to improve the average American’s standard of living. Time will be required to reestablish balance sheets to more normal levels, and in the interim disinflationary/deflationary tendencies will be ascendant. This environment is favorable for holders of long dated Treasuries. Positioning for an inflation boom will prove to be disappointing.
We agree. Which is why this outlook will never be realized. The Fed will simply never accept the risk of another bout of deflation. Period.
Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule
The Desk's tentative outright Treasury operation schedules for the purchases associated with the $600 billion purchase program announced by the FOMC on November 3, 2010 and for the purchases associated with the reinvestment of principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS announced by the FOMC on August 10, 2010.
Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $97 billion. This represents $80 billion in purchases of the announced $600 billion purchase program and $17 billion in purchases associated with principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between mid-April and mid-May.
Range Expected Purchase Size
April 13, 2011 April 14, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/15/2012-09/30/2013 $4 - $6 billion
April 14, 2011 April 15, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
April 15, 2011 April 18, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 04/30/2015-09/30/2016 $5 - $7 billion
April 18, 2011 April 19, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028-02/15/2041 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
April 19, 2011 April 20, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2013-03/31/2015 $5 - $7 billion
April 20, 2011 April 21, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013-02/15/2041 $1 - $2 billion
April 25, 2011 April 26, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2016-03/31/2018 $6 - $8 billion
April 26, 2011 April 27, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2021-11/15/2027 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
April 28, 2011 April 29, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 04/30/2015-09/30/2016 $5 - $7 billion
April 29, 2011 May 2, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2013-03/31/2015 $5 - $7 billion
May 2, 2011 May 3, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
May 3, 2011 May 4, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2016-05/02/2018 $6 - $8 billion
May 4, 2011 May 5, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013-02/15/2041 $1 - $2 billion
May 5, 2011 May 6, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028-02/15/2041 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
May 6, 2011 May 9, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2013-04/30/2015 $5 - $7 billion
May 9, 2011 May 10, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
May 10, 2011 May 11, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2015-10/31/2016 $5 - $7 billion
May 11, 2011 May 12, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2016-05/02/2018 $6 - $8 billion
The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on May 11, 2011. At that time, the Desk will also publish information on prices paid for securities included in the operations listed above.
Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $97 billion. This represents $80 billion in purchases of the announced $600 billion purchase program and $17 billion in purchases associated with principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between mid-April and mid-May.
Range Expected Purchase Size
April 13, 2011 April 14, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/15/2012-09/30/2013 $4 - $6 billion
April 14, 2011 April 15, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
April 15, 2011 April 18, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 04/30/2015-09/30/2016 $5 - $7 billion
April 18, 2011 April 19, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028-02/15/2041 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
April 19, 2011 April 20, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2013-03/31/2015 $5 - $7 billion
April 20, 2011 April 21, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013-02/15/2041 $1 - $2 billion
April 25, 2011 April 26, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2016-03/31/2018 $6 - $8 billion
April 26, 2011 April 27, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2021-11/15/2027 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
April 28, 2011 April 29, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 04/30/2015-09/30/2016 $5 - $7 billion
April 29, 2011 May 2, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 10/31/2013-03/31/2015 $5 - $7 billion
May 2, 2011 May 3, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
May 3, 2011 May 4, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2016-05/02/2018 $6 - $8 billion
May 4, 2011 May 5, 2011 Outright TIPS Purchase 04/15/2013-02/15/2041 $1 - $2 billion
May 5, 2011 May 6, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 08/15/2028-02/15/2041 $1.5 - $2.5 billion
May 6, 2011 May 9, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2013-04/30/2015 $5 - $7 billion
May 9, 2011 May 10, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2018-02/15/2021 $6 - $8 billion
May 10, 2011 May 11, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 05/15/2015-10/31/2016 $5 - $7 billion
May 11, 2011 May 12, 2011 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase 11/15/2016-05/02/2018 $6 - $8 billion
The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on May 11, 2011. At that time, the Desk will also publish information on prices paid for securities included in the operations listed above.
"I Give Up - Pay Anything"
Daily Show: I Give Up - Pay Anything...
As greedy public workers bankrupt states, America makes it harder for honest corporate citizens to create jobs.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-march-28-2011/i-give-up---pay-anything---
As greedy public workers bankrupt states, America makes it harder for honest corporate citizens to create jobs.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-march-28-2011/i-give-up---pay-anything---
Trade Alert buying 1/4 Position COW $31.45 or better
Submitted by: Francis Soyer 4/12/11
Buying COW etf 1/4 position meaning Franics is ready to commit 3/4 more nominal position size (position size never to exceed) 5% of portfolio value at 31.45 o/b (or better)
Stop and buy more (Next 1/4 leg in) $29.50
Next 1/4 $29.00
Final 1/4 28.50
Time Frame 3-4 Months
Upside Target sell all at $38.10
Richard Russell - Buy Pullbacks in Gold & Ignore the Top Callers
With gold and silver consolidating recent gains, the Godfather of newsletter writers Richard Russell had some interesting things to say in his latest commentary, “In all my years of investing, I have never seen an asset hit record highs, as gold has done recently, with less fanfare. There were no front page stories in the Wall Street Journal or Financial Times, heralding the new milestones." Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist and a member of Barron's Roundtable.”
After quoting Hickey, Russell continued:
“Gold is another story. The daily chart (above) shows gold breaking out of a head-and-shoulders bottom to the upside. Course of action -- sit with your precious metal position. Buy more on any pull-back toward the line of support (line of support is now at about 1450).
Russell comments on gold and silver -- Because the precious metals are in a massive bull market, many eager amateur analysts are now trying their hand on calling "the top." This is a hopeless and ridiculous endeavor during a powerful bull market. Much of this top-calling is done by an anti-gold element: Those who dislike gold or those who have missed the entire gold bull market. My advice all along has been to "ride the bull" and to ignore the "top callers."
The precious metals will correct when they are ready, and I might add that in ten years of closely following gold and silver, I have never come across anyone who has successfully called tops or who has successfully traded in-and-out of the metals. Advice -- stay invested in the metals until they exhaust themselves in panic buying.
Even then, what would you sell you gold for -- more fiat paper? We'll talk about selling precious metals when the time comes, which may be months or even years in the future.
Last, we turn to the Dollar Index...The Index is perched precariously above the critical 75 level with MACD in the process of turning negative.
A much longer view of the Dollar Index....Major critical support comes in at 70.69. I would think anything below 70 might set off a dollar panic.”
Gold has broken out above the $1,450 area and as Russell says, generally you want to buy on pullbacks toward that level. The public might be too skittish to do that, but the professionals certainly will. If that level holds, it will provide the base for the next leg higher in gold. For the non-professionals, simply accumulate each month on the same day and dollar cost average your purchases over time. This is a huge secular bull market, enjoy the ride. As far as the US dollar goes, God help us when we finally break 70 on that index.
After quoting Hickey, Russell continued:
“Gold is another story. The daily chart (above) shows gold breaking out of a head-and-shoulders bottom to the upside. Course of action -- sit with your precious metal position. Buy more on any pull-back toward the line of support (line of support is now at about 1450).
Russell comments on gold and silver -- Because the precious metals are in a massive bull market, many eager amateur analysts are now trying their hand on calling "the top." This is a hopeless and ridiculous endeavor during a powerful bull market. Much of this top-calling is done by an anti-gold element: Those who dislike gold or those who have missed the entire gold bull market. My advice all along has been to "ride the bull" and to ignore the "top callers."
The precious metals will correct when they are ready, and I might add that in ten years of closely following gold and silver, I have never come across anyone who has successfully called tops or who has successfully traded in-and-out of the metals. Advice -- stay invested in the metals until they exhaust themselves in panic buying.
Even then, what would you sell you gold for -- more fiat paper? We'll talk about selling precious metals when the time comes, which may be months or even years in the future.
Last, we turn to the Dollar Index...The Index is perched precariously above the critical 75 level with MACD in the process of turning negative.
A much longer view of the Dollar Index....Major critical support comes in at 70.69. I would think anything below 70 might set off a dollar panic.”
Gold has broken out above the $1,450 area and as Russell says, generally you want to buy on pullbacks toward that level. The public might be too skittish to do that, but the professionals certainly will. If that level holds, it will provide the base for the next leg higher in gold. For the non-professionals, simply accumulate each month on the same day and dollar cost average your purchases over time. This is a huge secular bull market, enjoy the ride. As far as the US dollar goes, God help us when we finally break 70 on that index.
Goldman Advises Clients To Sell Brent Down To $105 (As Goldman "Client Facing" Team Is Better Buyer?)
Yesterday Goldman launched the first salvo in the crude correction trade, telling clients to take premature profits on its CCCP (crude among others) basket as we reported previously. Today, Goldman sell-side energy analyst, once again completely unconflicted and ignorant of what is happening across the Chinese wall where all those former prop traders and now better known as "client facing associates" buy on behalf of Goldman's multi-billion balance sheet, has released his latest hit piece on oil. "We expect the oil market will experience a substantial pullback toward our $105/bbl near-term Brent crude oil price target." And for those wondering, when is the last time Goldman ever dropped their oil price forecast? Well, usually a month or so before the firm hikes it to $150 (see 2008).
Daily Research Summary 4/12/11
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
Yesterdays sell off in Silver as caused by a $1,000,000 dollar bet by COMEX (Crimex) that SLV would fall to $25.00 an ounce by July is the main suspect for the retreat. However, taking a closer look at this trade that went through something interesting to note. For one thing, half the daily volume were calls, and check out the total Open Interest (People Short This Downside Bet) This says that there are 3.2 million contracts betting against SLV would ever reach $25.00 By July. This is hardly a large bet that SLV will fall as described yesterday in the media. I suspect this may have even been a trade error. Or a larger player is using their weight to spin some headlines to get longer at a discount. The other possibility is that a trader on a desk probably fat fingered the key board when executing an order for July 35 Puts and his/her ass is grass today with the portfolio manager. It does happen unfortunately.
Symbol OptVolume Puts Calls AvgDailyVol OpenInt
SLV 698,162 382,221 315,941 228,700 3,270,383
Unfortunately by the time everyone figured out this was a bogus move down SLV this morning is already recovering thus eliminating the chance to leg in further at a discount.
Japan raises nuclear threat to highest level
Ivorian leader promises reconciliation
France: Says NATO not doing enough in Libya
Swaziland protest organizers arrested
Asian indices were in the red with the Nikkei down 1.69%. Major European indices are down and US futures indicate a negative open.
UK retail sales fell 1.9% year-over-year in March, the steepest decline in six years. Non-food retailers took an especially hard hit and the pound slid against the dollar on the news
German investor confidence plummeted in April due to rising oil prices and the ECB rate hike
Monday, April 11, 2011
Drop In Silver Attributed To $1 Million 37% Downside Bet On SLV
With everyone transfixed by the relentless move higher in silver, stories, myths and virtually anything is used a catalyst to explain any move lower in the precious metal. While earlier there already were two rumors that the COMEX would imminently hike gold and silver margins again (so for untrue) what is true, and what many are attributing the move in silver to, is what according to some is an outsized option bet that SLV will drop 37% by July. Bloomberg reports: "A trader’s almost $1 million bet that an exchange-traded fund tracking silver will plunge 37 percent by July was today’s biggest single options trade on U.S. exchanges as futures on the metal reached a 31-year high. The 100,000 options to buy 100 shares each of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) at $25 by July changed hands at the ask price of about 10 cents and exceeded the open interest of 6,054 outstanding contracts before today, indicating that a buyer of a new bearish position initiated the transaction. The ETF rose to the highest intraday level since trading began five years ago, $40.33, before erasing gains. It fell 0.5 percent to $39.67 at 12:54 p.m. It hasn’t closed below $25 since November."
“It’s definitely a massive downside bet on silver,” said Henry Schwartz, president of Trade Alert LLC, a New York-based provider of options-market data and analytics. “It’s so far out of the money that the buyer is probably just looking for a moderate pullback because a $3 retracement to where it was in March could double the position to $2 million.”
Silver for May delivery in New York climbed as much as 3.4 percent to $41.975 an ounce, the highest level since January 1980, when futures reached a record $50.35. It last traded at $41.33. Silver, where half of global consumption is industrial, has been rising because it benefits from a rebounding global economy as well as demand for a haven, according to UBS AG.
Of course, such a simplistic analysis certainly ignores what are likely numerous other components to a trade that is almost certainly multi-handed. After all let's not forget that it was none other than Morgan Stanley on Friday explaining why there appears to be a sizable short-gamma position in the market, which is substantially higher than just a $1 mm notional exposure, and which if anything, is a far more potent driver in the price of silver. Furthermore, if a $1mm bet is sufficient bet to push the market in either direction, then it is safe to say that there is absolutely no liquidity in the PM market whatsoever.
We are confident much more will emerge in the story of who is betting what and how much on future silver moves before June 30 comes.
Lastly, anybody out there heard of... gasp... hedging?
“It’s definitely a massive downside bet on silver,” said Henry Schwartz, president of Trade Alert LLC, a New York-based provider of options-market data and analytics. “It’s so far out of the money that the buyer is probably just looking for a moderate pullback because a $3 retracement to where it was in March could double the position to $2 million.”
Silver for May delivery in New York climbed as much as 3.4 percent to $41.975 an ounce, the highest level since January 1980, when futures reached a record $50.35. It last traded at $41.33. Silver, where half of global consumption is industrial, has been rising because it benefits from a rebounding global economy as well as demand for a haven, according to UBS AG.
Of course, such a simplistic analysis certainly ignores what are likely numerous other components to a trade that is almost certainly multi-handed. After all let's not forget that it was none other than Morgan Stanley on Friday explaining why there appears to be a sizable short-gamma position in the market, which is substantially higher than just a $1 mm notional exposure, and which if anything, is a far more potent driver in the price of silver. Furthermore, if a $1mm bet is sufficient bet to push the market in either direction, then it is safe to say that there is absolutely no liquidity in the PM market whatsoever.
We are confident much more will emerge in the story of who is betting what and how much on future silver moves before June 30 comes.
Lastly, anybody out there heard of... gasp... hedging?
Exclusive: Bill Gross Is Now Short US Debt, Hikes Cash To $73 Billion, An All Time Record
A month ago, Zero Hedge first reported that Bill Gross had taken the stunning decision to bring his Treasury exposure from 12% to 0%: a move which many interpreted as just business, and not personal: after all Pimco had previously telegraphed its disgust with US paper, and was merely mitigating its exposure. This time, in another Zero Hedge first, we discover that it is no longer business for Bill - it has now become personal (and with an attendant cost of carry). In March, Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt: -3% on a Market Value basis (or $7.1 billion), and a whopping -18% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis. And confirming just what PIMCO thinks of US-related paper is the fact that the world's largest "bond" fund now has cash, at a stunning $73 billion, or 31% of all assets, as its largest asset class on both a relative and absolute basis. We repeat: cash is more than PIMCO's holdings of Treasurys and Mortgage securities ($66 billion) combined. To paraphrase: in March PIMCO was dumping everything related to US rates (see chart below). This is the first net short position that PIMCO has had in Government-related debt since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and going positive in February of 2009 only after it became clear that the Fed would commence monetizing US debt one month later. This is the closest that Gross has come to making a political statement and is now without doubt putting his money where his mouth is. The only event that could possibly derail Gross' thinking is a huge market crash forcing a rush to Treasury safety. Alas, as has been made all too clear recently, US debt is no longer the safe haven it once was. Which begs the question: when will the TRF break out a "gold" asset holdings line item.
Ex-PBOC Official Wakes Up From The Acid Trip: "U.S. Treasury Market Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme"
Ex-PBOC Official Wakes Up From The Acid Trip: "U.S. Treasury Market Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2011 09:31 -0400
After years of being the primary supplier of funding to the US credit-money shell game, one more ex-PBoC member wakes up from the "great normalization" acid trip, and in a Caixin editorial says what virtually everyone now understands all too well: the Treasury market is one "giant Ponzi scheme." Oh, and it wasn't obvious when China was the biggest holder of debt for years (until the Fed became the biggest monetizer of US Treasuries late in 2010)? Sounds like a rather serious case of buyers remorse is creeping into the buying mindset of America's formerly primary enabler. The $64 trillion question now, as always, is whether China, whose holdings have been flat for a year will follow in Pimco's footsteps and actually commence selling longer-dated paper. If so, and with QE3 now expected to end even if temporarily, the aftermath will not be what Congress wants to see.
From Market Watch:
A former adviser to China's central bank said on Monday that China should have retreated from the U.S. government-bond market and instead allowed the yuan to appreciate more freely, warning that U.S. sovereign debt was akin to a giant Ponzi scheme, according to a newswire report that cited an editorial on Caixin Media Group's website. Yu Yongding, a former member of the People's Bank of China monetary-policy committee and now a member of a state-run policy group, said allowing appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar under a free-floating currency regime would have reduced China's need to acquire U.S. Treasuries. He likened the U.S. Treasury market to a "giant Ponzi scheme," arguing that Federal Reserve buying of Treasuries has artificially kept bond prices high, but that they would eventually fall to levels which reflected fundamentals of the U.S. economy.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2011 09:31 -0400
After years of being the primary supplier of funding to the US credit-money shell game, one more ex-PBoC member wakes up from the "great normalization" acid trip, and in a Caixin editorial says what virtually everyone now understands all too well: the Treasury market is one "giant Ponzi scheme." Oh, and it wasn't obvious when China was the biggest holder of debt for years (until the Fed became the biggest monetizer of US Treasuries late in 2010)? Sounds like a rather serious case of buyers remorse is creeping into the buying mindset of America's formerly primary enabler. The $64 trillion question now, as always, is whether China, whose holdings have been flat for a year will follow in Pimco's footsteps and actually commence selling longer-dated paper. If so, and with QE3 now expected to end even if temporarily, the aftermath will not be what Congress wants to see.
From Market Watch:
A former adviser to China's central bank said on Monday that China should have retreated from the U.S. government-bond market and instead allowed the yuan to appreciate more freely, warning that U.S. sovereign debt was akin to a giant Ponzi scheme, according to a newswire report that cited an editorial on Caixin Media Group's website. Yu Yongding, a former member of the People's Bank of China monetary-policy committee and now a member of a state-run policy group, said allowing appreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar under a free-floating currency regime would have reduced China's need to acquire U.S. Treasuries. He likened the U.S. Treasury market to a "giant Ponzi scheme," arguing that Federal Reserve buying of Treasuries has artificially kept bond prices high, but that they would eventually fall to levels which reflected fundamentals of the U.S. economy.
Liberal Media Refuses To Cover George Soros New World Order
Right now, there are only two groups that have written about George Soros New World Order event in New Hampshire that is taking place today. NTEB and Fox News. This is very odd when you consider that the giants of world politics and finance will be at these meetings, and Nancy Pelosi is the Keynote speaker. Just a tad odd, wouldn’t you say, that none of the main stream media are covering it in any way? So it would appear that there is a conspiracy among the various outlets to allow Soros’ meetings to take place unreported.
The first gathering in Bretton Woods, N.H., is an economic conference Soros once described as “a grand bargain that rearranges the entire financial order.” In October 2009, Soros committed $50 million to the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET). A week later, the glib lefty investor wrote a column calling for a new Bretton Woods event, to recreate the one that helped design the post-WWII economy. Only he wants this one to knock America down a peg or three.
The announced speakers include a lot of prominent lefties, globalists and economists on the board of the organization he has throwing the event – more than two-thirds of the overall total have ties to Soros. To underscore their connection to history, INET is hosting the conference at the Mount Washington Resort, the very same hotel that held the first gathering.
INET Executive Robert Johnson defended his event in a March 31 interview with Lou Dobbs. Johnson, a former managing director at Soros Fund Management, who is on the Board of Directors for the Soros-funded Economic Policy Institute, avoided saying “Soros” despite Dobbs mentioning Johnson’s boss several times. In his last response, he tried to rationalize the Soros connection, by saying “I have a group of funders including George Soros.” With $50 million, Soros alone makes a pretty big group. Of course, Soros will also be speaking in Bretton Woods about “The Emerging Economic and Political Order.” source – Fox News
TY Mary Jane Moore-Wright
The first gathering in Bretton Woods, N.H., is an economic conference Soros once described as “a grand bargain that rearranges the entire financial order.” In October 2009, Soros committed $50 million to the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET). A week later, the glib lefty investor wrote a column calling for a new Bretton Woods event, to recreate the one that helped design the post-WWII economy. Only he wants this one to knock America down a peg or three.
The announced speakers include a lot of prominent lefties, globalists and economists on the board of the organization he has throwing the event – more than two-thirds of the overall total have ties to Soros. To underscore their connection to history, INET is hosting the conference at the Mount Washington Resort, the very same hotel that held the first gathering.
INET Executive Robert Johnson defended his event in a March 31 interview with Lou Dobbs. Johnson, a former managing director at Soros Fund Management, who is on the Board of Directors for the Soros-funded Economic Policy Institute, avoided saying “Soros” despite Dobbs mentioning Johnson’s boss several times. In his last response, he tried to rationalize the Soros connection, by saying “I have a group of funders including George Soros.” With $50 million, Soros alone makes a pretty big group. Of course, Soros will also be speaking in Bretton Woods about “The Emerging Economic and Political Order.” source – Fox News
TY Mary Jane Moore-Wright
Frontrunning: April 11
Frontrunning: April 11
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2011 07:51 -0400
•Obama Push to Seize Budget Initiative (FT)
•China gives all clear on bond issuance bubble: Government Boosts the Bond Markets (China Daily)
•You mean they can't use 200% debt financing? Nasdaq OMX Needs Shareholders to Embrace Rejected Bid (Bloomberg)
•Complacent Europe Must Realise Spain Will be Next (FT)
•Japan's seismic nerve center (Japan Times)
•Kan’s DPJ Suffers Election Setback One Month After Japan Quake (Bloomberg)
•Edano Says Japan Doesn't Need BOJ to Help Fund Post-Quake Disaster Relief (Bloomberg)
•State Prosecutor Summons Mubarak (FT)
•US Doubts Air Power Can Turn Libyan Tide (FT)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2011 07:51 -0400
•Obama Push to Seize Budget Initiative (FT)
•China gives all clear on bond issuance bubble: Government Boosts the Bond Markets (China Daily)
•You mean they can't use 200% debt financing? Nasdaq OMX Needs Shareholders to Embrace Rejected Bid (Bloomberg)
•Complacent Europe Must Realise Spain Will be Next (FT)
•Japan's seismic nerve center (Japan Times)
•Kan’s DPJ Suffers Election Setback One Month After Japan Quake (Bloomberg)
•Edano Says Japan Doesn't Need BOJ to Help Fund Post-Quake Disaster Relief (Bloomberg)
•State Prosecutor Summons Mubarak (FT)
•US Doubts Air Power Can Turn Libyan Tide (FT)
China Lashes Out At US "Hypocrisy", Blasts US Human Rights "Double Standard" In Pursuing "World Hegemony"
In what can only be described as a stunning deterioration in foreign relations between the world's two superpowers, following Friday's release by the US State Department of the annual report on human rights, which expressed sharp criticism of the human rights records of China, North Korea, Cuba and Belarus, among others, China decided it has had enough. Less than 48 hours later, it has lashed back at the US with a report that is making headlines at every government controlled, and otherwise, media in mainland China, which makes a mockery of the US double standard when it comes to human rights, and exposes US "hypocrisy" which China (rightly many would claim) asserts is merely a pretext for continued US attempts at world "hegemony". As Xinhua reports on its front page, "The Human Rights Record of the United States in 2010 was released by the Information Office of China's State Council, or cabinet, in response to the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2010 issued by the U.S. Department of State on April. The U.S. reports are "full of distortions and accusations of the human rights situation in more than 190 countries and regions including China. However, the United States turned a blind eye to its own terrible human rights situation and seldom mentioned it," China's report said." The war of words hits a new all time record: "The United States has taken human rights as "a political instrument to defame other nations' image and seek its own strategic interests," the report said. While illustrating a dismal record of the United States on its own human rights, China's report said the United States could not be justified to pose as the world's "human rights justice." "However, it released the Country Reports on Human Rights Practices year after year to accuse and blame other countries for their human rights practices," the report said. These moves fully expose the United States' hypocrisy by exercising double standards on human rights and its malicious design to pursue hegemony under the pretext of human rights, it said. The report advised the U.S. government to "take concrete actions to improve its own human rights conditions, check and rectify its acts in the human rights field, and stop the hegemonistic deeds of using human rights issues to interfere in other countries' internal affairs." While that last sentence may not be an explicit warning for the US to shut the hell up and focus on its own dirty laundry, or else, it sure does sound like one.
VIOLATION OF CITIZENS' RIGHTS
In the United States, the violation of citizens' civil and political rights by the government is severe, said the report.
Citizen's privacy has been undermined. More than 6,600 travelers had been subject to electronic device searches between October 1, 2008 and June 2, 2010, nearly half of them American citizens, said the report, citing figures released by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) in September 2010.
The report said abuse of violence and torturing suspects to get confession is serious in the U.S. law enforcement, and "wrongful conviction occurred quite often."
While advocating Internet freedom, the U.S. in fact imposes fairly strict restriction on cyberspace, said the report.
The United States applies double standards on Internet freedom by requesting unrestricted "Internet freedom" in other countries, which becomes an important diplomatic tool for the U.S. to impose pressure and seek hegemony, and imposing strict restriction within its own territory, the report said.
The U.S. regards itself as "the beacon of democracy." However, its democracy is largely based on money, the report said.
According to media report in 2010, U.S. House and Senate candidates shattered fundraising records for a midterm election, taking in more than 1.5 billion U.S. dollars as of October 24. The midterm election, held in November 2010, finally cost 3.98 billion U.S. dollars, the most expensive in the U.S. history.
HIGHEST INCIDENCE OF VIOLENT CRIMES
One out of every five people is a victim of a crime in the United States every year, said the report.
The United States reports the world' s highest incidence of violent crimes, and its people's lives, properties and personal security are not duly protected, the report said.
In 2009, an estimated 4.3 million violent crimes, 15.6 million property crimes and 133,000 personal thefts were committed against U.S. residents aged 12 or older, and the violent crime rate was 17.1 victimizations per 1,000 persons, said the report, quoting figures from the U.S. Department of Justice.
The United States also ranks first in the world in terms of the number of privately-owned guns and had high incidence of gun-related crimes, said the report, noting that the United States exercised lax control on the already rampant gun ownership.
Some 90 million people own an estimated 200 million guns in the United States, which has a population of about 300 million, the report said citing figures from the public media.
Statistics showed there were 12,000 gun murders a year in the United States, the report said.
The report also said that the frequent campus shootings in colleges in the United States came to the spotlight in recent years.
RACIAL DISCRIMINATION DEEP-SEATED
"Racial discrimination, deep-seated in the United States, has permeated every aspect of social life," said the report.
Minority groups confront discrimination in their employment and occupation. The black people are treated unfairly or excluded in promotion, welfare and employment, the report quoted U.S media reports as saying.
It is reported that one-third of black people confronted discrimination at work, against which only one-sixteenth of the black people would lodge a complaint.
The New York Times reported on September 23, 2010 that by the end of September 30, 2009, Muslim workers had filed a record 803 claims of complaints over employment discrimination, up 20 percent from the previous year.
The report said U.S. minority groups have high unemployment rate, and do not enjoy the same political status as white people.
Poverty proportion for U.S. minorities is high in the United States. The poverty proportion of the black was 25.8 percent in 2009, and those of Hispanic origin and Asian were 25.3 percent and 12.5 percent respectively, much higher than that of the non-Hispanic white at 9.4 percent, said the report, citing U.S. media figures.
The report also said that U.S. minority groups face obvious inequality in education, and the health care for African-American people is worrisome.
Racial discrimination is evident in the law enforcement and judicial systems, racial hate crimes are frequent, and immigrants' rights and interests are not guaranteed, said the report.
RIGHTS OF WOMEN, CHILDREN IS BOTHERING
Gender discrimination against women widely exists in the United States, and women in the country often experience sexual assault and violence.
Statistics showed that some 20 million women are rape victims in the country, some one fifth female students on campus are victims of sexual assault, and nearly 3,000 female soldiers were sexually assaulted in fiscal year 2008, up nine percent from the year before.
Women are also victims of domestic violence in the United States, said the report, as some 1.3 million people fall victim to domestic violence every year, with women accounting for 92 percent.
Many children in the U.S. live in poverty and their physical and mental health is not ensured as nearly one in four children struggles with hunger, according to the report.
The report also pointed out that violence against children is very severe in the country, citing figures from the official website of Love Our Children USA that every year, over three million children are victims of violence reportedly and the actual number is three times greater.
More than 93,000 children are currently incarcerated in the United States, and between 75 and 93 percent of children have experienced at least one traumatic experience, including sexual abuse and neglect, the report said.
According to the report, pornographic content is rampant on the Internet and severely harms American children as seven in 10 children have accidentally accessed pornography on the Internet and one in three has done so intentionally.
INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS
The United States has a notorious record of international human rights violations, said the report.
The U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have caused huge civilian casualties.
Figures from the WikiLeaks website revealed up to 285,000 war casualties in Iraq from March 2003 through the end of 2009, with 63 percent of the 109,000 people killed in the Iraq war being civilians.
"The U.S. military actions in Afghanistan and other regions have also brought tremendous casualties to local people," said the report.
The report cited the notorious case on a "kill team" formed by five soldiers from the 5th Stryker Combat Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan. The team had committed at least three murders, where they randomly targeted and killed Afghan civilians, and dismembered the corpses and hoarded the human bones.
In addition, the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops had caused 535 Afghan civilian deaths and injuries in 2009. Among them 113 civilians were shot and killed, an increase of 43 percent over 2008, the report quoted McClatchy Newspapers as saying.
PRISONER ABUSE SCANDALS
The United States have been holding individuals captured under the pretext of the "war on terror" and abusing detainees with various methods, according to the report.
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) established secret detention facilities to interrogate so-called "high-value detainees," said the report, citing a document submitted to the United Nations Human Rights Council in May 2010.
According to the document, the CIA had taken custody of 94 detainees, and had employed "enhanced techniques" to varying degrees, including stress positions, extreme temperature changes, sleep deprivation and "waterboarding" in the interrogation of 28 of those detainees.
VIOLATION OF CITIZENS' RIGHTS
In the United States, the violation of citizens' civil and political rights by the government is severe, said the report.
Citizen's privacy has been undermined. More than 6,600 travelers had been subject to electronic device searches between October 1, 2008 and June 2, 2010, nearly half of them American citizens, said the report, citing figures released by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) in September 2010.
The report said abuse of violence and torturing suspects to get confession is serious in the U.S. law enforcement, and "wrongful conviction occurred quite often."
While advocating Internet freedom, the U.S. in fact imposes fairly strict restriction on cyberspace, said the report.
The United States applies double standards on Internet freedom by requesting unrestricted "Internet freedom" in other countries, which becomes an important diplomatic tool for the U.S. to impose pressure and seek hegemony, and imposing strict restriction within its own territory, the report said.
The U.S. regards itself as "the beacon of democracy." However, its democracy is largely based on money, the report said.
According to media report in 2010, U.S. House and Senate candidates shattered fundraising records for a midterm election, taking in more than 1.5 billion U.S. dollars as of October 24. The midterm election, held in November 2010, finally cost 3.98 billion U.S. dollars, the most expensive in the U.S. history.
HIGHEST INCIDENCE OF VIOLENT CRIMES
One out of every five people is a victim of a crime in the United States every year, said the report.
The United States reports the world' s highest incidence of violent crimes, and its people's lives, properties and personal security are not duly protected, the report said.
In 2009, an estimated 4.3 million violent crimes, 15.6 million property crimes and 133,000 personal thefts were committed against U.S. residents aged 12 or older, and the violent crime rate was 17.1 victimizations per 1,000 persons, said the report, quoting figures from the U.S. Department of Justice.
The United States also ranks first in the world in terms of the number of privately-owned guns and had high incidence of gun-related crimes, said the report, noting that the United States exercised lax control on the already rampant gun ownership.
Some 90 million people own an estimated 200 million guns in the United States, which has a population of about 300 million, the report said citing figures from the public media.
Statistics showed there were 12,000 gun murders a year in the United States, the report said.
The report also said that the frequent campus shootings in colleges in the United States came to the spotlight in recent years.
RACIAL DISCRIMINATION DEEP-SEATED
"Racial discrimination, deep-seated in the United States, has permeated every aspect of social life," said the report.
Minority groups confront discrimination in their employment and occupation. The black people are treated unfairly or excluded in promotion, welfare and employment, the report quoted U.S media reports as saying.
It is reported that one-third of black people confronted discrimination at work, against which only one-sixteenth of the black people would lodge a complaint.
The New York Times reported on September 23, 2010 that by the end of September 30, 2009, Muslim workers had filed a record 803 claims of complaints over employment discrimination, up 20 percent from the previous year.
The report said U.S. minority groups have high unemployment rate, and do not enjoy the same political status as white people.
Poverty proportion for U.S. minorities is high in the United States. The poverty proportion of the black was 25.8 percent in 2009, and those of Hispanic origin and Asian were 25.3 percent and 12.5 percent respectively, much higher than that of the non-Hispanic white at 9.4 percent, said the report, citing U.S. media figures.
The report also said that U.S. minority groups face obvious inequality in education, and the health care for African-American people is worrisome.
Racial discrimination is evident in the law enforcement and judicial systems, racial hate crimes are frequent, and immigrants' rights and interests are not guaranteed, said the report.
RIGHTS OF WOMEN, CHILDREN IS BOTHERING
Gender discrimination against women widely exists in the United States, and women in the country often experience sexual assault and violence.
Statistics showed that some 20 million women are rape victims in the country, some one fifth female students on campus are victims of sexual assault, and nearly 3,000 female soldiers were sexually assaulted in fiscal year 2008, up nine percent from the year before.
Women are also victims of domestic violence in the United States, said the report, as some 1.3 million people fall victim to domestic violence every year, with women accounting for 92 percent.
Many children in the U.S. live in poverty and their physical and mental health is not ensured as nearly one in four children struggles with hunger, according to the report.
The report also pointed out that violence against children is very severe in the country, citing figures from the official website of Love Our Children USA that every year, over three million children are victims of violence reportedly and the actual number is three times greater.
More than 93,000 children are currently incarcerated in the United States, and between 75 and 93 percent of children have experienced at least one traumatic experience, including sexual abuse and neglect, the report said.
According to the report, pornographic content is rampant on the Internet and severely harms American children as seven in 10 children have accidentally accessed pornography on the Internet and one in three has done so intentionally.
INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS
The United States has a notorious record of international human rights violations, said the report.
The U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have caused huge civilian casualties.
Figures from the WikiLeaks website revealed up to 285,000 war casualties in Iraq from March 2003 through the end of 2009, with 63 percent of the 109,000 people killed in the Iraq war being civilians.
"The U.S. military actions in Afghanistan and other regions have also brought tremendous casualties to local people," said the report.
The report cited the notorious case on a "kill team" formed by five soldiers from the 5th Stryker Combat Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan. The team had committed at least three murders, where they randomly targeted and killed Afghan civilians, and dismembered the corpses and hoarded the human bones.
In addition, the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops had caused 535 Afghan civilian deaths and injuries in 2009. Among them 113 civilians were shot and killed, an increase of 43 percent over 2008, the report quoted McClatchy Newspapers as saying.
PRISONER ABUSE SCANDALS
The United States have been holding individuals captured under the pretext of the "war on terror" and abusing detainees with various methods, according to the report.
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) established secret detention facilities to interrogate so-called "high-value detainees," said the report, citing a document submitted to the United Nations Human Rights Council in May 2010.
According to the document, the CIA had taken custody of 94 detainees, and had employed "enhanced techniques" to varying degrees, including stress positions, extreme temperature changes, sleep deprivation and "waterboarding" in the interrogation of 28 of those detainees.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Highest and Lowest Unemployment Rates
Comment: Francis Soyer
Take a look at these "reported" rates coming from (AP). To get the real number multiply these numbers below by 2.
(AP) -- Unemployment rates fell in more than three-quarters of the nation's 372 largest metro areas in February, a sign that recent hiring gains have been widespread and not limited to a few healthy regions.
Below are the cities with the highest and lowest unemployment rates. Figures are in percentages.
Best and Worst Metro areas
Highest unemployment rates Feb. 2011
1.El Centro, Calif. 26.9
2.Yuma, Ariz. 21.5
3.Merced, Calif. 21.3
4.Yuba City, Calif. 21.3
5.Fresno, Calif. 18.2
6.Modesto, Calif. 18.1
7.Visalia-Porterville, Calif. 18.1
8.Hanford-Corcoran, Calif. 18.0
9.Stockton, Calif. 17.6
10.Ocean City, N.J. 17.0
Lowest unemployment rates Feb. 2011
1.Lincoln, Neb. 4.2
2.Bismarck, N.D. 4.6
3.Ames, Iowa 4.7
4.Iowa City, Iowa 4.7
5.Fargo, N.D. 4.7
6.Burlington, Vt. 4.8
7.Midland, Texas 4.8
8.Honolulu, Hawaii 5.2
9.Portsmouth, N.H. 5.2
10.Charlottesville, Va. 5.3
Take a look at these "reported" rates coming from (AP). To get the real number multiply these numbers below by 2.
(AP) -- Unemployment rates fell in more than three-quarters of the nation's 372 largest metro areas in February, a sign that recent hiring gains have been widespread and not limited to a few healthy regions.
Below are the cities with the highest and lowest unemployment rates. Figures are in percentages.
Best and Worst Metro areas
Highest unemployment rates Feb. 2011
1.El Centro, Calif. 26.9
2.Yuma, Ariz. 21.5
3.Merced, Calif. 21.3
4.Yuba City, Calif. 21.3
5.Fresno, Calif. 18.2
6.Modesto, Calif. 18.1
7.Visalia-Porterville, Calif. 18.1
8.Hanford-Corcoran, Calif. 18.0
9.Stockton, Calif. 17.6
10.Ocean City, N.J. 17.0
Lowest unemployment rates Feb. 2011
1.Lincoln, Neb. 4.2
2.Bismarck, N.D. 4.6
3.Ames, Iowa 4.7
4.Iowa City, Iowa 4.7
5.Fargo, N.D. 4.7
6.Burlington, Vt. 4.8
7.Midland, Texas 4.8
8.Honolulu, Hawaii 5.2
9.Portsmouth, N.H. 5.2
10.Charlottesville, Va. 5.3
Financial_System_Designed_To_Self_Destruct
As each day passes the US dollar loses prestige and its status as a world reserve currency. Washington and Wall Street pay little attention to its slide and the changes a lower dollar and loss of reserve status will bring. Once the dollar is dethroned Americans will have to learn to live on the edges of the economic and financial world. Those of you who have not read G. Edward Griffins’ “Creature from Jekyll Island” should. It tells you why the Federal Reserve was created and why the Federal Reserve was created and what its function is. It also shows you why except for Wall Street, banking and selected elitist corporations why the system was designed to self-destruct. If you read economic and financial history you will discover why such economic and financial destruction takes place repeatedly and that more often than not does not happen due to incompetence, war or error, but it is planned that way. What has happened to the dollar since Bretton Woods and the planned removal of gold backing from the dollar is an example of deliberate destruction and in that process the destruction of the greatest nation in history. In that process of 97 years the wealthy and connected have become wealthier and powerful and have become even more so. They truly expect to exit this maelstrom and war as the leaders of the future. We have news for them. The power of talk radio and the Internet stretches worldwide and the world now understands what they are up too, and they are not going to be successful in their efforts to bring about world government. The collapse of the dollar is but one aspect in the change planned in the shift in world power.
Silver Shorts Getting Slapped Around...
Submitted by: Francis Soyer 4/8/11 06:55
As the government shutdown approaches notice what happens with precious metals and the dollar. As one economist put it, (Martin Armstrong) is an issue of the ECM (Economic Confidence Model). Not to be confused with consumer confidence or investor confidence which are two completely seperate issues. The ECM model is directly related to confidence in governmental systems. This is why precious metals will continue to rise and rise sharply over the next 18 months with little or no pullbacks of any consequence. By my own work it is not unreasonable to expect Silver at $300 and Gold at $3,000 to $5,000 3 being the low end and 5 upper.
The key issue being that world governments and their stability are directly linked to world central banking. World central banking and their continued monetary value dilution do nothing but erode the ECM model. It erodes that model in that the stimulus intended to spark growth simply gets absorbed into the banking system however never reaches the general economy in the form of loans to spark economic growth. I think very few economists of any salt would disagree that the system is broken and badly so.
Hence why precious metals and also commodities in general will continue to rise in dollar / eur / Yen etc. in that it takes more of them to have the same purchasing power as in the past because their value continues to fall as central banking prints more of them out of thin air. For more on this concept please visit Armstrong Economics at http://armstrongeconomics.com/
He just got out of prison so no posts as of recently but he did some brilliant work while serving time. :)
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Forget The Budget, The Real Nightmare Begins Next Month And The Sakes Are 100x as High
A point that needs to be made: This fight over whether to shut down the government for a few days is chicken-scratch.
It's low-stakes poker compared to the fight over the debt ceiling, which must be resolved by May 8, in just over a month.
Several GOPers have already said they won't raise it without some "significant" concessions from The White House on the future of spending, and whatever good will John Boehner has to burn up in getting a budget passed will be taken directly from the appetite the GOP had in raising the debt ceiling.
The consequences are way more severe, potentially, than the shutdown of government. At the most extreme, it could lead to default. And if you figure that the market goes into a tizzy at the suggestion of, say, Greece defaulting, then the impact of the US should be easy to comprehend.
There's no doubt that Boehner doesn't want a disastrous outcome, but his challenge is in getting his more radical compatriots to come along with him.
So enjoy the theater of what we're seeing now. It's just the opening band.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-debt-ceiling-debate-2011-4#ixzz1IsAxIIQP
It's low-stakes poker compared to the fight over the debt ceiling, which must be resolved by May 8, in just over a month.
Several GOPers have already said they won't raise it without some "significant" concessions from The White House on the future of spending, and whatever good will John Boehner has to burn up in getting a budget passed will be taken directly from the appetite the GOP had in raising the debt ceiling.
The consequences are way more severe, potentially, than the shutdown of government. At the most extreme, it could lead to default. And if you figure that the market goes into a tizzy at the suggestion of, say, Greece defaulting, then the impact of the US should be easy to comprehend.
There's no doubt that Boehner doesn't want a disastrous outcome, but his challenge is in getting his more radical compatriots to come along with him.
So enjoy the theater of what we're seeing now. It's just the opening band.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-debt-ceiling-debate-2011-4#ixzz1IsAxIIQP
Confirmation on Israel War Threat
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
4/7/11
In response the the headline just posted on Zero Hedge that a Netanyahu Spokesman made an announcement that all out war could begin as early as tonight within Gaza I have gotten confirmation from Al Jazeera that "Violence erupts across Gaza Border"
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/20114713475225620.html
This is a very serious development and has the potentional if this does in fact occur to crush equity indices. Hence defensive trading advised.
Netanyahu Spokesman Says War May Break Out Between Israel And Gaza As Early As Tonight
Just to make the clusterflock complete the following news from BBC Newsfile crosses the tape: "The Ma'an News Agency website in Arabic at 1631 gmt on 7 April posts the following "urgent" caption: "[Ofir] Gendelman [spokesman for the office of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu] Tells Ma'an: I do not rule out the possibility that Israel will wage war on Gaza tonight." Or, more metaphorically, the proverbial flame in a fireworks store. Surely this last straw will send the S&P limit [up
down] until someone has the brilliant idea that Bernanke can print his way out of that one as well.
More as we see it.
down] until someone has the brilliant idea that Bernanke can print his way out of that one as well.
More as we see it.
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Geithner warns U.S. to hit debt ceiling by May 16
(Reuters) - The United States will hit the legal limit on its ability to borrow no later than May 16, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Monday, ramping up pressure on Congress to act to avoid a debt default.
"The longer Congress fails to act, the more we risk that investors here and around the world will lose confidence in our ability to meet our commitments and our obligations," Geithner said in a letter to congressional leaders.
"Default by the United States is unthinkable."
Previously, the Treasury had forecast that the $14.3 trillion statutory debt limit would be reached between April 15 and May 31. As of Friday, Treasury borrowing stood just $95 billion from the ceiling.
Some Republican lawmakers have sought to use the need to raise the debt limit as a lever to pressure the Obama administration into agreeing on large-scale budget cuts.
The debt-limit showdown comes as Congress struggles to complete a spending package that would keep the government operating beyond Friday.
Republicans are seeking to use that bill to enact deep spending cuts and lawmakers are focusing on a proposal to trim this year's budget by $33 billion, a relatively small amount compared with a projected $1.4 trillion deficit.
Geithner said a failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely way would push interest rates higher and spark "a financial crisis potentially more severe than the crisis from which we are only starting to recover."
Both Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have said a failure to raise the ceiling could have "catastrophic consequences."
BUYING TIME
As the government nears the debt ceiling, the Treasury has authority to take certain extraordinary measures to postpone the date the United States would default on its obligations.
However, those actions would be exhausted after about eight weeks and there would be "no headroom" to borrow after July 8, Geithner said.
Some lawmakers have called for legislation to force the Treasury to first pay interest on U.S. bonds before other obligations, such as unemployment benefits and Social Security and Medicare payments, as a way to stave off a debt default.
They have also asked Treasury whether financial assets such as the country's gold reserves or the government's portfolio of student loans could be sold to avoid raising the debt ceiling.
Treasury has rejected the proposals as unworkable.
"The longer Congress fails to act, the more we risk that investors here and around the world will lose confidence in our ability to meet our commitments and our obligations," Geithner said in a letter to congressional leaders.
"Default by the United States is unthinkable."
Previously, the Treasury had forecast that the $14.3 trillion statutory debt limit would be reached between April 15 and May 31. As of Friday, Treasury borrowing stood just $95 billion from the ceiling.
Some Republican lawmakers have sought to use the need to raise the debt limit as a lever to pressure the Obama administration into agreeing on large-scale budget cuts.
The debt-limit showdown comes as Congress struggles to complete a spending package that would keep the government operating beyond Friday.
Republicans are seeking to use that bill to enact deep spending cuts and lawmakers are focusing on a proposal to trim this year's budget by $33 billion, a relatively small amount compared with a projected $1.4 trillion deficit.
Geithner said a failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely way would push interest rates higher and spark "a financial crisis potentially more severe than the crisis from which we are only starting to recover."
Both Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have said a failure to raise the ceiling could have "catastrophic consequences."
BUYING TIME
As the government nears the debt ceiling, the Treasury has authority to take certain extraordinary measures to postpone the date the United States would default on its obligations.
However, those actions would be exhausted after about eight weeks and there would be "no headroom" to borrow after July 8, Geithner said.
Some lawmakers have called for legislation to force the Treasury to first pay interest on U.S. bonds before other obligations, such as unemployment benefits and Social Security and Medicare payments, as a way to stave off a debt default.
They have also asked Treasury whether financial assets such as the country's gold reserves or the government's portfolio of student loans could be sold to avoid raising the debt ceiling.
Treasury has rejected the proposals as unworkable.
Soros advises Obama to use forceful measures to override the will of the people
By Ed Lasky for American Thinker
George Soros funds the Center for American Progress, which has been characterized as Barack Obama’s Ideas Factory. John Podesta, its head, led the transition team when Barack Obama became President. The Center has also become a hiring hall for the Obama team, filling its positions with former employees (among these was controversial Van Jones — who now is back at the Center).
Apparently, George Soros and his Center are upset that the American people placed a roadblock in their plans when we rose up and painted the nation red. The Center now is providing a blueprint of ways Barack Obama can do an end run around the people’s will by resorting to methods that will strike many of us as being improper-to say the least. Relying on executive orders, interpretation of regulations, rule -making and the like they are collectively a recipe for even more power being assumed by President Obama.
From Tuesday’s Politico Playbook:
[The] Center for American Progress today is releasing a report, “Power of the President,” proposing 30 executive actions the president can take to advance progressive change in the areas of energy, the economy, health care, education, foreign policy, and national security. “The following authorities can be used to ensure progress on key issues facing the country today: Executive orders, Rulemaking, Agency management, Convening and creating public-private partnerships , Commanding the armed forces, Diplomacy.
The New York Times fleshes out these proposals with some suggestions about policy changes across the board. The ideology of George Soros shines through the Center’s report as it justifies this forceful approach to circumvent Congress when it states that:
[The] legislative battles that Mr. Obama waged during his first two years – notably on health care and financial regulatory reform – have created a weariness among the general public with the process of making laws. And it hints it has not helped Mr. Obama politically in the process.
In other words, when Congress passed a variety of laws Americans became dismayed by the horse-trading and bribes that were resorted to by Democrats to impose these policies on us. Instead of compromise and listening to the American people, Soros counsels that more forceful measures should be used to override the will of the American people.
And this is the man the Democratic Party has as their sugar daddy and who various Democratic leaders over the years have defended and praised (for example, as shown by this letter from 11 Democratic lawmakers).
He is certainly a dictatorial daddy.
George Soros funds the Center for American Progress, which has been characterized as Barack Obama’s Ideas Factory. John Podesta, its head, led the transition team when Barack Obama became President. The Center has also become a hiring hall for the Obama team, filling its positions with former employees (among these was controversial Van Jones — who now is back at the Center).
Apparently, George Soros and his Center are upset that the American people placed a roadblock in their plans when we rose up and painted the nation red. The Center now is providing a blueprint of ways Barack Obama can do an end run around the people’s will by resorting to methods that will strike many of us as being improper-to say the least. Relying on executive orders, interpretation of regulations, rule -making and the like they are collectively a recipe for even more power being assumed by President Obama.
From Tuesday’s Politico Playbook:
[The] Center for American Progress today is releasing a report, “Power of the President,” proposing 30 executive actions the president can take to advance progressive change in the areas of energy, the economy, health care, education, foreign policy, and national security. “The following authorities can be used to ensure progress on key issues facing the country today: Executive orders, Rulemaking, Agency management, Convening and creating public-private partnerships , Commanding the armed forces, Diplomacy.
The New York Times fleshes out these proposals with some suggestions about policy changes across the board. The ideology of George Soros shines through the Center’s report as it justifies this forceful approach to circumvent Congress when it states that:
[The] legislative battles that Mr. Obama waged during his first two years – notably on health care and financial regulatory reform – have created a weariness among the general public with the process of making laws. And it hints it has not helped Mr. Obama politically in the process.
In other words, when Congress passed a variety of laws Americans became dismayed by the horse-trading and bribes that were resorted to by Democrats to impose these policies on us. Instead of compromise and listening to the American people, Soros counsels that more forceful measures should be used to override the will of the American people.
And this is the man the Democratic Party has as their sugar daddy and who various Democratic leaders over the years have defended and praised (for example, as shown by this letter from 11 Democratic lawmakers).
He is certainly a dictatorial daddy.
Sprott Physical Gold Trust Announces Follow On, Will Sequester Another $300 Million In Physical; PSLV Next?
It's a good thing that unlike the silver market, which continues to be in backwardation (see chart), the gold market is fully supplied. Otherwise the just released news from Sprott Asset Management that his Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is pursuing a $300 million follow on would finally send gold breaking out to $2,000, where it will be sooner or later anyway. Amusingly, contrary to various other blogs' expectations that Sprott is top ticking the market with selling shareholder shelf statements, Sprott is doing just the opposite: "certain funds managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, have agreed to purchase no less than $115 million of Units in this Offering." So yeah, no top tick here. Still, the news that Sprott is about to mop up another $300 million in physical gold from the market will likely send gold quite higher. It appears to have already had an impact on silver, which jumped by $20 cents to another 31 year high on the news, as the market now likely expects a follow on offering in PSLV as well imminently.
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - 04/04/11) - Sprott Physical Gold Trust (the "Trust") (TSX:PHY.U - News)(NYSE:PHYS - News), a trust created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion and managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, announced today that it has launched a follow-on offering of transferable, redeemable units of the Trust ("Units") in an aggregate amount of up to $340 million at a price of $12.54 per unit (the "Offering"). Certain lead investors, including certain funds managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, have agreed to purchase no less than $115 million of Units in this Offering.
The Trust will use the net proceeds of this Offering to acquire physical gold bullion in accordance with the Trust's objective and subject to the Trust's investment and operating restrictions described in the prospectus related to this Offering. Under the trust agreement governing the Trust, the net proceeds of the Offering per unit must be not less than 100% of the most recently calculated net asset value per Unit of the Trust prior to, or upon determination of, pricing of the offering.
The Units are listed on the NYSE Arca and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols "PHYS" and "PHY.U", respectively. The Offering will be made simultaneously in the United States and Canada by Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets.
The press releaseTORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - 04/04/11) - Sprott Physical Gold Trust (the "Trust") (TSX:PHY.U - News)(NYSE:PHYS - News), a trust created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion and managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, announced today that it has launched a follow-on offering of transferable, redeemable units of the Trust ("Units") in an aggregate amount of up to $340 million at a price of $12.54 per unit (the "Offering"). Certain lead investors, including certain funds managed by Sprott Asset Management LP, have agreed to purchase no less than $115 million of Units in this Offering.
The Trust will use the net proceeds of this Offering to acquire physical gold bullion in accordance with the Trust's objective and subject to the Trust's investment and operating restrictions described in the prospectus related to this Offering. Under the trust agreement governing the Trust, the net proceeds of the Offering per unit must be not less than 100% of the most recently calculated net asset value per Unit of the Trust prior to, or upon determination of, pricing of the offering.
The Units are listed on the NYSE Arca and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols "PHYS" and "PHY.U", respectively. The Offering will be made simultaneously in the United States and Canada by Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets.
Saudi Oil Minister Says Crude To Hit $300 If Turmoil Spreads To Saudi
Saudi Arabia Goes M.A.D.:
Saudi Oil Minister Says Crude To Hit $300 If Turmoil Spreads To Saudi
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/05/2011 08:45 -0400
The strategy of Mutual Assured Destruction has worked so well in the "developed" world (thank you Hank Paulson, Tim Jeethner, Clearinghouse Association et al), it is time to see it in application in the "developing." In an attempt to preempt US doubts about intervening (on the proper side) in the case of escalations in Saudi Arabia (and with the possibility of Yemen becoming a potential Al Qaeda hotbed rising by the hour, this is non-trivial) the former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani told Reuters on Tuesday that "Oil prices could leap to $200 to $300 a barrel if Saudi Arabia is hit by serious political unrest." We are confident he was merely talking in a very, very hypothetical scenario. After all why scaremonger in a world in which everything is under control?
From Reuters:
"If something happens in Saudi Arabia it will go to $200 to $300," he said.
"I don't expect this for the time being, but who would have expected Tunisia?" he added.
Asked whether the United States was likely to succeed in cutting its dependence on Saudi oil, he said: "From the 1950s, American presidents have been saying this."
U.S. President Barack Obama last week proposed to cut oil imports by a third over 10 years.
Than again with math Ph.D.'s continuing to (front) run US stock markets, and unable to make the mathematical leap between $108 oil and a 4% full year GDP forecast by Goldman (soon to be cut to 1.5%), we are confident $300 oil will have no material impact on stocks, until such time as the Globex hikes margin requirements on the ES which will be the catalyst for the next market crash.
Saudi Oil Minister Says Crude To Hit $300 If Turmoil Spreads To Saudi
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/05/2011 08:45 -0400
The strategy of Mutual Assured Destruction has worked so well in the "developed" world (thank you Hank Paulson, Tim Jeethner, Clearinghouse Association et al), it is time to see it in application in the "developing." In an attempt to preempt US doubts about intervening (on the proper side) in the case of escalations in Saudi Arabia (and with the possibility of Yemen becoming a potential Al Qaeda hotbed rising by the hour, this is non-trivial) the former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Zaki Yamani told Reuters on Tuesday that "Oil prices could leap to $200 to $300 a barrel if Saudi Arabia is hit by serious political unrest." We are confident he was merely talking in a very, very hypothetical scenario. After all why scaremonger in a world in which everything is under control?
From Reuters:
"If something happens in Saudi Arabia it will go to $200 to $300," he said.
"I don't expect this for the time being, but who would have expected Tunisia?" he added.
Asked whether the United States was likely to succeed in cutting its dependence on Saudi oil, he said: "From the 1950s, American presidents have been saying this."
U.S. President Barack Obama last week proposed to cut oil imports by a third over 10 years.
Than again with math Ph.D.'s continuing to (front) run US stock markets, and unable to make the mathematical leap between $108 oil and a 4% full year GDP forecast by Goldman (soon to be cut to 1.5%), we are confident $300 oil will have no material impact on stocks, until such time as the Globex hikes margin requirements on the ES which will be the catalyst for the next market crash.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Frontrunning: April 4
Frontrunning: April 4
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/04/2011 07:51 -0400
•Goldman lowers Q1 GDP, sees rest of year outlook as "messy: (Zero Hedge)
•GOP Aim: Cut $4 Trillion (WSJ)
•Trichet Seen Burying Ailing Nations With Interest-Rate Rise (BusinessWeek)
•ECB criticised over expected rate rise (FT)
•Important for China arbs: BOC HK Cuts Yuan Deposit Interest Rate (Bloomberg)
•In Tripoli, Growing Murmurs Of Dissent (WSJ)
•Inflation Surge May Cause Hike in Won, Rates (Korea JoongAng)
•Us Foreign Policy "Shocker": U.S. Shifts to Seek Removal of Yemen’s Leader, an Ally (NYT)
•Next Problem for Oil: Nigerian Elections (WSJ)
•Geithner Says Strict Policy on Currency Hurts China (NYT)
•China closes half the nation's dairies (Telegraph)
•Ireland to Push for Better Bailout Terms (WSJ)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/04/2011 07:51 -0400
•Goldman lowers Q1 GDP, sees rest of year outlook as "messy: (Zero Hedge)
•GOP Aim: Cut $4 Trillion (WSJ)
•Trichet Seen Burying Ailing Nations With Interest-Rate Rise (BusinessWeek)
•ECB criticised over expected rate rise (FT)
•Important for China arbs: BOC HK Cuts Yuan Deposit Interest Rate (Bloomberg)
•In Tripoli, Growing Murmurs Of Dissent (WSJ)
•Inflation Surge May Cause Hike in Won, Rates (Korea JoongAng)
•Us Foreign Policy "Shocker": U.S. Shifts to Seek Removal of Yemen’s Leader, an Ally (NYT)
•Next Problem for Oil: Nigerian Elections (WSJ)
•Geithner Says Strict Policy on Currency Hurts China (NYT)
•China closes half the nation's dairies (Telegraph)
•Ireland to Push for Better Bailout Terms (WSJ)
Ron Paul on Legal Tender Laws, Coin Shortages, Interest Rates, Municipal Bonds, the Gold Standard
Ron Paul on Legal Tender Laws, Coin Shortages, Interest Rates, Municipal Bonds, the Gold Standard
Commodity Online News has an interesting article regarding a new bill introduced by Ron Paul to repeal legal tender laws, an investigation of the coin shortage, and Paul's positions on interest rates and a return to the gold standard.
Ron Paul to probe US Mint Coin shortage
Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has one question for the U.S. Mint: why is there a coin shortage? He is aiming to get to the bottom of this during a scheduled April 7 hearing of his U.S. House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy to examine the bullion programs at the U.S. Mint.
“We are going to try and find out what the Mint has done so they can give us a better answer as to why there is a shortage. Why can’t they keep the supply of coins up?” said the congressman in an exclusive interview with Kitco News.
Part of the problem lies in manufacturing the blanks, said Paul. The blank planchets are not made at the Mint, which hasn't had the production capacity for this stage of the minting process since the budget cuts of 1981.
“Looks like we don’t even get (all) blank coins made in the U.S. – there is a contract with a foreign company, which makes no sense at all,” said the congressman.
Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011
In March, Paul introduced H.R. 1098, the Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011, which would repeal legal tender laws in order to prohibit taxation on gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium bullion. The bill has been referred to the House Committees on Financial Services, Ways and Means, and Judiciary.
A staunch critic of the Federal Reserve, Paul said that instead of arguing his case for the Fed to close down tomorrow, he’s arguing the fact it should not hold a monopoly. “They have a monopoly on a type of money that isn’t even constitutional,” he said.
“We would use no force, nobody has to use gold and silver coins,” said Paul. Rather, he said the Fed does use force. “They are a cartel and they make us use Federal Reserve notes,” he said.
Gold Standard
A common assumption is that Paul is calling for a return to a gold standard. He clarified, saying he is not so inflexible. “I wouldn’t be overly rigid and say, ‘you must have a gold standard, you must go back to what we had.’ Our gold standard was imperfect, even though it worked better than the paper standard,” he said.
Lawmakers in several states, including Tennessee, Virginia, New Hampshire and South Carolina, have introduced bills to look into minting their own currencies in the event of a complete breakdown of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In Georgia, a bill to make the state only use gold and silver is in committee.
Utah has received the most media attention on this subject as the House and Senate have passed HB317, which would recognize gold and silver coins as legal tender and exempt them from certain state tax liability.
“Governments over the many, many centuries have always demanded monopoly control over money. Even when gold and silver were principally used in the economies, they still wanted monopolies,” Paul said.
Hence, he is not confident that any Utah law would be allowed to stand. “Well, they are going to fight it tooth and nail. They are not going to go along with this even though we have the law and Constitution on our side and it should appeal to all Americans to have competition.”
Interest Rate Hikes and Municipal Bond Defaults
Regarding U.S. interest rate hikes, Paul said they are going to be gradual and steady but they are indeed coming. “The next big shoe to fall will be interest rates going up on municipal bonds -- that means a lot of these bonds will start defaulting,” he said.
There is more in the article including a discussion on another run for president. I hope he does run even though he has little chance of winning.
His issues are important ones and they merit adoption. The first step, however, is more awareness, and his running for president would do just that.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Commodity Online News has an interesting article regarding a new bill introduced by Ron Paul to repeal legal tender laws, an investigation of the coin shortage, and Paul's positions on interest rates and a return to the gold standard.
Ron Paul to probe US Mint Coin shortage
Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has one question for the U.S. Mint: why is there a coin shortage? He is aiming to get to the bottom of this during a scheduled April 7 hearing of his U.S. House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy to examine the bullion programs at the U.S. Mint.
“We are going to try and find out what the Mint has done so they can give us a better answer as to why there is a shortage. Why can’t they keep the supply of coins up?” said the congressman in an exclusive interview with Kitco News.
Part of the problem lies in manufacturing the blanks, said Paul. The blank planchets are not made at the Mint, which hasn't had the production capacity for this stage of the minting process since the budget cuts of 1981.
“Looks like we don’t even get (all) blank coins made in the U.S. – there is a contract with a foreign company, which makes no sense at all,” said the congressman.
Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011
In March, Paul introduced H.R. 1098, the Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011, which would repeal legal tender laws in order to prohibit taxation on gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium bullion. The bill has been referred to the House Committees on Financial Services, Ways and Means, and Judiciary.
A staunch critic of the Federal Reserve, Paul said that instead of arguing his case for the Fed to close down tomorrow, he’s arguing the fact it should not hold a monopoly. “They have a monopoly on a type of money that isn’t even constitutional,” he said.
“We would use no force, nobody has to use gold and silver coins,” said Paul. Rather, he said the Fed does use force. “They are a cartel and they make us use Federal Reserve notes,” he said.
Gold Standard
A common assumption is that Paul is calling for a return to a gold standard. He clarified, saying he is not so inflexible. “I wouldn’t be overly rigid and say, ‘you must have a gold standard, you must go back to what we had.’ Our gold standard was imperfect, even though it worked better than the paper standard,” he said.
Lawmakers in several states, including Tennessee, Virginia, New Hampshire and South Carolina, have introduced bills to look into minting their own currencies in the event of a complete breakdown of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In Georgia, a bill to make the state only use gold and silver is in committee.
Utah has received the most media attention on this subject as the House and Senate have passed HB317, which would recognize gold and silver coins as legal tender and exempt them from certain state tax liability.
“Governments over the many, many centuries have always demanded monopoly control over money. Even when gold and silver were principally used in the economies, they still wanted monopolies,” Paul said.
Hence, he is not confident that any Utah law would be allowed to stand. “Well, they are going to fight it tooth and nail. They are not going to go along with this even though we have the law and Constitution on our side and it should appeal to all Americans to have competition.”
Interest Rate Hikes and Municipal Bond Defaults
Regarding U.S. interest rate hikes, Paul said they are going to be gradual and steady but they are indeed coming. “The next big shoe to fall will be interest rates going up on municipal bonds -- that means a lot of these bonds will start defaulting,” he said.
There is more in the article including a discussion on another run for president. I hope he does run even though he has little chance of winning.
His issues are important ones and they merit adoption. The first step, however, is more awareness, and his running for president would do just that.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Friday, April 1, 2011
From Recession to Expansion: A Policymaker’s Perspective" - More Hawkishness From Philly Fed's Plosser
Comment: Francis Soyer 04/01/11
And this below is confirmation that the Folks at the Fed are Brain Dead. Just dont get it..... Wow
From Recession to Expansion: A Policymaker’s Perspective" - More Hawkishness From Philly Fed's Plosser
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/01/2011 08:16 -0400
Some highlights from the just released Philly Fed president's speech, bringing yet more hawkishness into the equation:
•Says stronger rebound in economy, inflation may require aggressive policy action
•Must not be too sanguine in believing time to tighten is long way off
•Recovery will continue at a moderate pace
•US economy growing 3.5% annually this year and next
•Prospects in labour markets have improved in recent months
•Expects inflation to be about 2% over the course of 2011... so not the 8.3% which is the accurate number? Odd.
And this below is confirmation that the Folks at the Fed are Brain Dead. Just dont get it..... Wow
From Recession to Expansion: A Policymaker’s Perspective" - More Hawkishness From Philly Fed's Plosser
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/01/2011 08:16 -0400
Some highlights from the just released Philly Fed president's speech, bringing yet more hawkishness into the equation:
•Says stronger rebound in economy, inflation may require aggressive policy action
•Must not be too sanguine in believing time to tighten is long way off
•Recovery will continue at a moderate pace
•US economy growing 3.5% annually this year and next
•Prospects in labour markets have improved in recent months
•Expects inflation to be about 2% over the course of 2011... so not the 8.3% which is the accurate number? Odd.
JPMorgan's Dimon Warns of Regulatory 'Nail' in Coffin
Submitted by: Francis Soyer
04/01/11
Francis is posting this one because the pattern with the banking system before the rabbit gets pulled out of the hat so to speak is usually telegraphed in advance. In this case Dimon is speaking not so much about the Frank Dodd regulations which may look good on paper but in real terms are toothless proposed regulations is talking more to the point on the implementation of BASEL III. BASEL III is the new banking reserve requirements as dictated by the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) the hub of central banking power. This testimony by Dimon is basically a telegraph so that when the global finanicial system collapse occurs and IT WILL over the next 20 months basically he gets his get out of jail free card for being able to say I told you so....
Published: Thursday, 31 Mar 2011
1:50 AM ET By: Tom Braithwaite, Financial Times
Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, launched a broadside against financial regulation on Wednesday, warning that new capital rules could be “the nail in our coffin for big American banks.”
Regulators are negotiating international capital standards for the biggest banks but the chief executive of JP Morgan Chase [JPM 46.10 -0.35 (-0.75%) ] said setting the new requirements too high, or allowing overseas banks to calculate their asset base differently, could disadvantage US banks and was already stifling economic growth.
“If you want to set it so high that no big bank ever goes bankrupt... I think that would greatly diminish growth,” he told a US Chamber of Commerce conference.
Too large a disparity in capital requirements between Europe and the US would mean “you’re pretty much putting the nail in our coffin for big American banks,” he said.
Urging regulators to make a quick decision, he said the uncertainty meant banks were already restricting their lending, nervous of the “anger and the shrillness – and Switzerland says it’s got to be 19 percent and people in the UK say it’s got to be 15 percent.”
“If you think that’s helping growth, it’s not,” Mr. Dimon said, adding that a 7 percent capital ratio would be adequate.
Mr. Dimon’s comments come as Wall Street executives and Republican members of Congress are starting to attack regulation as anger at the financial industry subsides.
On Tuesday, Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, wrote in the Financial Times that the Dodd-Frank financial reforms risked creating “the largest regulatory-induced market distortion since America’s ill-fated imposition of wage and price controls in 1971”.
Spencer Bachus, the Republican chairman of the House financial services committee, has said that regulators are there to “serve” the banks and warned the Treasury not to hurt Goldman Sachs’ [GS 158.60 -0.47 (-0.3%) ] shareholders when it writes new rules implementing Dodd-Frank. Restrictions on debit card fees charged to retailers are also coming under attack in Congress.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wal-Mart US CEO To America: "Prepare For Serious Inflation"
To those who think that buying food in the corner deli is becoming a luxury, we have five words: you ain't seen nuthin' yet. U.S. consumers face "serious" inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products, the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. operations warned Wednesday talking to USA Today. And if Wal-Mart which is at the very bottom of commoditized consumer retail, and at the very peak of avoiding reexporting of US inflation by way of China is concerned, it may be time to panic, or at least cancel those plane tickets to Zimbabwe, which is soon coming to us.
Don’t Believe the Chart, the US Dollar is Dropping Like a Stone
I want to take a moment to address the US Dollar’s collapse.
The US Dollar which most investors follow is the US Dollar index. This represents the US Dollar’s value against a basket of major currencies: the Euro, Japanese Yen, etc.
Think about that for a moment: the way we measure the US Dollar’s value is against a collection of other un-backed paper currencies all issued by over-indebted, bankrupt nations.
In other words, its nonsense.
Case in point, the Euro comprises over 50% of the US Dollar index. What’s the Euro? A currency backed by a loose group of bankrupt nations with maybe two solvent members in the bunch. Greece has already asked for an extension on its bailout repayments (like they’re ever going to repay anything), Spain is bankrupt, ditto for Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and others.
As for the more solvent European members (Germany and maybe France) their political leaders are getting crushed in the elections because NOBODY who actually works for a living (or has a working brain) wants in on the Euro.
So in Europe we’ve got one perhaps two solvent countries that are supposed to bailout 5+ insolvent ones (like that’s even possible). And the solvent countries are comprised of people who want no part of the Euro.
Man, now that’s what I call a real currency.
In simple terms, to claim the Euro is a viable currency is pure insanity. And yet, this “currency” comprises 50% of the US Dollar index (not as though the Yen or US Dollar are worthwhile either).
My point in all of this is that measuring the greenback using the Euro is insane. 100% totally insane. Which is why claiming the US Dollar is not collapsing is BS. If you actually go outside the US (which 99% of commentators don’t) you’ll find that the US Dollar is worth much less than the Dollar index is telling you.
I was recently on a trip to South America looking at real estate. While there I was told repeatedly by developers that they didn’t want to sign a contract in US Dollars. Instead they wanted to do it in the local currency. This has NEVER happened before during my trips abroad (even as recently as 2009).
When I pushed for having contracts based in Dollars, the price went up EVERY week.
The reason? The US Dollar is falling in relation to the local currency on a daily basis.
So here are local businessmen, (not economists or analysts), people who actually work for a living, refusing to accept US Dollars during business transactions.
That alone should tell you just where the US Dollar stands on the international stage.
In plain terms, the US Dollar crisis is already underway. If you ignore the stupid headlines and pay attention to the real world you can already see it. Prices of goods are EXPLODING higher. It’s being hidden because retailers are downsizing the size of their packages OR packing less goods in the same space (look inside any cereal box or other dry good and you’ll find that at best it’s 75% full).
So if you think things are fine because the US Dollar chart shows we still have a few lines of support, you’re being mislead. The US Dollar is worth far, far less than the chart shows you. So if you want to prepare yourself for a currency crisis you need to move now.
On that note, if you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.
I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).
Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.
Prepare Now!
Graham Summers
The US Dollar which most investors follow is the US Dollar index. This represents the US Dollar’s value against a basket of major currencies: the Euro, Japanese Yen, etc.
Think about that for a moment: the way we measure the US Dollar’s value is against a collection of other un-backed paper currencies all issued by over-indebted, bankrupt nations.
In other words, its nonsense.
Case in point, the Euro comprises over 50% of the US Dollar index. What’s the Euro? A currency backed by a loose group of bankrupt nations with maybe two solvent members in the bunch. Greece has already asked for an extension on its bailout repayments (like they’re ever going to repay anything), Spain is bankrupt, ditto for Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and others.
As for the more solvent European members (Germany and maybe France) their political leaders are getting crushed in the elections because NOBODY who actually works for a living (or has a working brain) wants in on the Euro.
So in Europe we’ve got one perhaps two solvent countries that are supposed to bailout 5+ insolvent ones (like that’s even possible). And the solvent countries are comprised of people who want no part of the Euro.
Man, now that’s what I call a real currency.
In simple terms, to claim the Euro is a viable currency is pure insanity. And yet, this “currency” comprises 50% of the US Dollar index (not as though the Yen or US Dollar are worthwhile either).
My point in all of this is that measuring the greenback using the Euro is insane. 100% totally insane. Which is why claiming the US Dollar is not collapsing is BS. If you actually go outside the US (which 99% of commentators don’t) you’ll find that the US Dollar is worth much less than the Dollar index is telling you.
I was recently on a trip to South America looking at real estate. While there I was told repeatedly by developers that they didn’t want to sign a contract in US Dollars. Instead they wanted to do it in the local currency. This has NEVER happened before during my trips abroad (even as recently as 2009).
When I pushed for having contracts based in Dollars, the price went up EVERY week.
The reason? The US Dollar is falling in relation to the local currency on a daily basis.
So here are local businessmen, (not economists or analysts), people who actually work for a living, refusing to accept US Dollars during business transactions.
That alone should tell you just where the US Dollar stands on the international stage.
In plain terms, the US Dollar crisis is already underway. If you ignore the stupid headlines and pay attention to the real world you can already see it. Prices of goods are EXPLODING higher. It’s being hidden because retailers are downsizing the size of their packages OR packing less goods in the same space (look inside any cereal box or other dry good and you’ll find that at best it’s 75% full).
So if you think things are fine because the US Dollar chart shows we still have a few lines of support, you’re being mislead. The US Dollar is worth far, far less than the chart shows you. So if you want to prepare yourself for a currency crisis you need to move now.
On that note, if you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.
I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).
Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.
Prepare Now!
Graham Summers
Silver Set For All Time Record Quarterly Close - Gold To Silver Ratio On Way To 17 To 1 As Per 1980?
From GoldCore
Silver Set For All Time Record Quarterly Close - Gold To Silver Ratio On Way To 17 To 1 As Per 1980?
Gold and silver have consolidated on yesterday’s gains as inflation, geopolitical and eurozone debt concerns support. Silver has risen above its 31 year record closing price of yesterday and looks set to target new record nominal intraday highs above $38.16/oz.
‘Poor man’s gold’ is set for a record nominal quarterly close which will be bullish technically and set silver up to target psychological resistance at $40/oz and then the nominal high of $50.35/oz . Silver’s record quarterly close was $32.20/oz on December 31st, 1979.
While silver is up 22 percent this year and is heading for a ninth straight quarterly advance, its fundamentals remain very sound. With gold above its nominal record of 1980, poor man’s gold continues to be seen as offering better value. To the masses in India, China and Asia, silver is the cheap alternative to gold and an attractive store of value and hedge against inflation and debasement of paper currencies.
Increasing global investment and industrial demand in the very small and finite silver bullion market is a recipe for higher prices. Thus, as we have long asserted the gold silver ratio is likely to revert to its long term average of 16 to 1.
A return to a ratio of 16 to 1 is likely due to basic supply and demand and the geological fact that there are 16 parts of silver for every one part of gold in the earth’s crust.
The fact that a huge amount of silver has been used in industrial applications and consumer items since the industrial revolution of the 19th century makes a return to the 16 to 1 ratio likely in the long term.
$40/oz silver may offer psychological resistance and could see profit taking but those buying silver are strong hands who rightly believe that silver will very likely reach its 1980 nominal high of $50.35/oz. Real silver bulls believe that silver may reach its inflation adjusted high of $150/oz (see Financial Times Infographic below).
A tiny minority of retail investors have begun to look at silver but it remains largely the preserve of the smart money, a very small amount of hard money advocates in the U.S. and of store of value buyers in Asia. Much of the price gains seen recently may be due to banks closing out some of their massive concentrated short positions which are being investigated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said investors should have from 10 to 20 percent of their portfolio in gold as an inflation hedge.
“I want to buy more gold,” said Faber in an interview in Mexico City today. “Each time that I see Mr. Bernanke, and each time Mr. Tim Geithner opens his mouth, I feel like buying more gold and silver.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke kept plans to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June. Bernanke said last month the U.S. needs faster employment growth for a sufficient time before policy makers can be assured the economic recovery has taken hold. Meanwhile the bank will seek to hold borrowing costs “exceptionally low.”
Under current U.S. monetary policy “gold will go up substantially,” Faber said. “I own gold as an insurance policy, because I think the whole system will collapse one day.”
(Bloomberg) -- Bolivia Protesters Halt Operations at San Cristobal Silver Mine
Sumitomo Corp.’s silver, zinc and lead mine in Bolivia has been halted since last week by a strike, the mining ministry said. Workers at the San Cristobal mine are demanding better health care, a government official, who can’t be named because of ministry policy, said today by telephone.
Sumitomo’s San Cristobal, in southwestern Bolivia’s mineral-rich region of Potosi, is the world’s third-largest silver mine and the sixth-biggest zinc mine.
(Bloomberg) -- Gold Heads for 10th Quarterly Gain on Investment Haven Demand
Gold headed for a 10th straight quarterly rise, the longest in three decades, as turmoil in the Middle East, fighting in Libya and Japan’s nuclear crisis increased demand for an investment haven. Bullion for immediate delivery advanced 0.3 percent to $1,427.13 an ounce at 5:28 p.m. in Melbourne, taking the quarterly gain to 0.5 percent. The June-delivery contract in New York rose 0.3 percent to $1,428.50, heading for a 0.5 percent quarterly rise.
“There is a lot of uncertainty around the globe in terms of political events,” David Lennox, a Sydney-based resource analyst at Fat Prophets, said by phone today. Fighting could escalate in Libya, while there is uncertainty surrounding Bahrain and the nuclear crisis in Japan, he said.
Gold reached a record $1,447.82 an ounce on March 24 amid tension in northern Africa and the Middle East and after a March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan killed thousands and caused radiation to leak from a nuclear plant. Libyan rebels were forced to retreat this week by troops loyal to Muammar Qaddafi after earlier advances were helped by U.S.-led air strikes.
“We are now starting to see that the air strikes may not be completely effective against Qaddafi, and that’s going to raise the next bar,” Lennox said.
Gold advanced for nine consecutive quarters through Dec. 31, 2010, partly because investors bought the metal as a hedge against dollar and euro weakness. Gains were limited this quarter on signs the U.S. economy is improving, boosting investor appetite for higher-yielding assets like stocks.
‘Upward Advance’
“In nominal terms it has been a pretty steady upward advance, but it has come off a period prior to 2000 where we basically had 20 years of flat gold prices,” Ben Westmore, an analyst at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne, said today.
Companies in the U.S. added 201,000 workers in March, a sign the labor market may be strengthening, according to figures from ADP Employer Services yesterday. Employment increased by a revised 208,000 in February, said the report, which is based on payrolls.
Economists project a Labor Department report tomorrow will show the jobless rate held at 8.9 percent. It has fallen by 0.9 percentage point over the last three months, the biggest decline since 1983.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.7 percent yesterday and is up 5.6 percent this quarter. “Buoyant equities and a positive U.S. ADP employment report removed some of the safe-haven premium” in the gold market, Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., wrote in a note today.
Silver for immediate delivery climbed 0.4 percent to $37.62 an ounce, heading for a 22 percent rise this quarter, the ninth straight quarterly gain. The metal has more than doubled in the past year and reached a 31-year high of $38.165 on March 24. Immediate-delivery platinum was little changed at $1,773.90an ounce and palladium gained 0.7 percent to $758.75 an ounce.
(Bloomberg) -- Six Arrested in Bundesbank Euro Coin-Forgery Scam, Prosecutors Say
Six people were arrested in a probe over 29 metric tons of forged euro coins that were cashed in at the Bundesbank, German prosecutors said.
The suspects received 1-euro and 2-euro coins from workshops in China where destroyed coins were remade, Doris Moeller-Scheu, a spokeswoman for Frankfurt prosecutors, said in an e-mailed statement today. No employees of Germany’s central bank are suspected of wrongdoing.
The Bundesbank is the only central bank in Europe that exchanges damaged coins without charging a fee, according to Moeller-Scheu. The money must be returned in bags that hold 1,000 euros worth of coins.
“The Bundesbank controls the value mainly by weighing, and does occasional visual sample test,” Moeller-Scheu said. “Then the money value is transferred to an account of the presenter or he can withdraw it from a Bundesbank account.”
Four suspects are of Chinese descent, according to the statement. They were helped by flight attendants who transported the coins in their hand luggage, for which no weigh limit applies, Moeller-Scheu said.
Lufthansa was informed that some individual employees are being investigated, Deutsche Lufthansa AG spokesman Peter Schneckenleitner said in an interview. He said the company wouldn’t comment on prosecutors’ probes.
The 29 metric tons of coins were imported between 2007 and 2010, representing a nominal value of 6 million euros, Moeller- Scheu said.
Silver Set For All Time Record Quarterly Close - Gold To Silver Ratio On Way To 17 To 1 As Per 1980?
Gold and silver have consolidated on yesterday’s gains as inflation, geopolitical and eurozone debt concerns support. Silver has risen above its 31 year record closing price of yesterday and looks set to target new record nominal intraday highs above $38.16/oz.
‘Poor man’s gold’ is set for a record nominal quarterly close which will be bullish technically and set silver up to target psychological resistance at $40/oz and then the nominal high of $50.35/oz . Silver’s record quarterly close was $32.20/oz on December 31st, 1979.
While silver is up 22 percent this year and is heading for a ninth straight quarterly advance, its fundamentals remain very sound. With gold above its nominal record of 1980, poor man’s gold continues to be seen as offering better value. To the masses in India, China and Asia, silver is the cheap alternative to gold and an attractive store of value and hedge against inflation and debasement of paper currencies.
Increasing global investment and industrial demand in the very small and finite silver bullion market is a recipe for higher prices. Thus, as we have long asserted the gold silver ratio is likely to revert to its long term average of 16 to 1.
A return to a ratio of 16 to 1 is likely due to basic supply and demand and the geological fact that there are 16 parts of silver for every one part of gold in the earth’s crust.
The fact that a huge amount of silver has been used in industrial applications and consumer items since the industrial revolution of the 19th century makes a return to the 16 to 1 ratio likely in the long term.
$40/oz silver may offer psychological resistance and could see profit taking but those buying silver are strong hands who rightly believe that silver will very likely reach its 1980 nominal high of $50.35/oz. Real silver bulls believe that silver may reach its inflation adjusted high of $150/oz (see Financial Times Infographic below).
A tiny minority of retail investors have begun to look at silver but it remains largely the preserve of the smart money, a very small amount of hard money advocates in the U.S. and of store of value buyers in Asia. Much of the price gains seen recently may be due to banks closing out some of their massive concentrated short positions which are being investigated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
NEWS
(Bloomberg) -- Faber Says Investors Should Hold Gold Amid U.S. Monetary Policy Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said investors should have from 10 to 20 percent of their portfolio in gold as an inflation hedge.
“I want to buy more gold,” said Faber in an interview in Mexico City today. “Each time that I see Mr. Bernanke, and each time Mr. Tim Geithner opens his mouth, I feel like buying more gold and silver.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke kept plans to buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June. Bernanke said last month the U.S. needs faster employment growth for a sufficient time before policy makers can be assured the economic recovery has taken hold. Meanwhile the bank will seek to hold borrowing costs “exceptionally low.”
Under current U.S. monetary policy “gold will go up substantially,” Faber said. “I own gold as an insurance policy, because I think the whole system will collapse one day.”
(Bloomberg) -- Bolivia Protesters Halt Operations at San Cristobal Silver Mine
Sumitomo Corp.’s silver, zinc and lead mine in Bolivia has been halted since last week by a strike, the mining ministry said. Workers at the San Cristobal mine are demanding better health care, a government official, who can’t be named because of ministry policy, said today by telephone.
Sumitomo’s San Cristobal, in southwestern Bolivia’s mineral-rich region of Potosi, is the world’s third-largest silver mine and the sixth-biggest zinc mine.
(Bloomberg) -- Gold Heads for 10th Quarterly Gain on Investment Haven Demand
Gold headed for a 10th straight quarterly rise, the longest in three decades, as turmoil in the Middle East, fighting in Libya and Japan’s nuclear crisis increased demand for an investment haven. Bullion for immediate delivery advanced 0.3 percent to $1,427.13 an ounce at 5:28 p.m. in Melbourne, taking the quarterly gain to 0.5 percent. The June-delivery contract in New York rose 0.3 percent to $1,428.50, heading for a 0.5 percent quarterly rise.
“There is a lot of uncertainty around the globe in terms of political events,” David Lennox, a Sydney-based resource analyst at Fat Prophets, said by phone today. Fighting could escalate in Libya, while there is uncertainty surrounding Bahrain and the nuclear crisis in Japan, he said.
Gold reached a record $1,447.82 an ounce on March 24 amid tension in northern Africa and the Middle East and after a March 11 earthquake and tsunami in Japan killed thousands and caused radiation to leak from a nuclear plant. Libyan rebels were forced to retreat this week by troops loyal to Muammar Qaddafi after earlier advances were helped by U.S.-led air strikes.
“We are now starting to see that the air strikes may not be completely effective against Qaddafi, and that’s going to raise the next bar,” Lennox said.
Gold advanced for nine consecutive quarters through Dec. 31, 2010, partly because investors bought the metal as a hedge against dollar and euro weakness. Gains were limited this quarter on signs the U.S. economy is improving, boosting investor appetite for higher-yielding assets like stocks.
‘Upward Advance’
“In nominal terms it has been a pretty steady upward advance, but it has come off a period prior to 2000 where we basically had 20 years of flat gold prices,” Ben Westmore, an analyst at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne, said today.
Companies in the U.S. added 201,000 workers in March, a sign the labor market may be strengthening, according to figures from ADP Employer Services yesterday. Employment increased by a revised 208,000 in February, said the report, which is based on payrolls.
Economists project a Labor Department report tomorrow will show the jobless rate held at 8.9 percent. It has fallen by 0.9 percentage point over the last three months, the biggest decline since 1983.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.7 percent yesterday and is up 5.6 percent this quarter. “Buoyant equities and a positive U.S. ADP employment report removed some of the safe-haven premium” in the gold market, Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., wrote in a note today.
Silver for immediate delivery climbed 0.4 percent to $37.62 an ounce, heading for a 22 percent rise this quarter, the ninth straight quarterly gain. The metal has more than doubled in the past year and reached a 31-year high of $38.165 on March 24. Immediate-delivery platinum was little changed at $1,773.90an ounce and palladium gained 0.7 percent to $758.75 an ounce.
(Bloomberg) -- Six Arrested in Bundesbank Euro Coin-Forgery Scam, Prosecutors Say
Six people were arrested in a probe over 29 metric tons of forged euro coins that were cashed in at the Bundesbank, German prosecutors said.
The suspects received 1-euro and 2-euro coins from workshops in China where destroyed coins were remade, Doris Moeller-Scheu, a spokeswoman for Frankfurt prosecutors, said in an e-mailed statement today. No employees of Germany’s central bank are suspected of wrongdoing.
The Bundesbank is the only central bank in Europe that exchanges damaged coins without charging a fee, according to Moeller-Scheu. The money must be returned in bags that hold 1,000 euros worth of coins.
“The Bundesbank controls the value mainly by weighing, and does occasional visual sample test,” Moeller-Scheu said. “Then the money value is transferred to an account of the presenter or he can withdraw it from a Bundesbank account.”
Four suspects are of Chinese descent, according to the statement. They were helped by flight attendants who transported the coins in their hand luggage, for which no weigh limit applies, Moeller-Scheu said.
Lufthansa was informed that some individual employees are being investigated, Deutsche Lufthansa AG spokesman Peter Schneckenleitner said in an interview. He said the company wouldn’t comment on prosecutors’ probes.
The 29 metric tons of coins were imported between 2007 and 2010, representing a nominal value of 6 million euros, Moeller- Scheu said.
San Francisco Mint to strike silver bullion
To join West Point Mint in striking American Eagles
By Paul Gilkes-Coin World Staff
March 28, 2011 8:00 a.m.
Article first published in 2011-04-11, News section of Coin World
Because of the continued unprecedented demand for American Eagle silver bullion coins and an increased numismatic production load at the West Point Mint, some American Eagle production is being shifted to the San Francisco Mint.
Tom Jurkowsky, director of the U.S. Mint’s Office of Public Information, confirmed March 23 that trial strikes are currently being produced at the San Francisco Mint, with full-scale, temporary production to begin sometime in May.
The trial strikes are being produced to ensure that the quality of the American Eagle silver bullion coins struck at the San Francisco Mint replicate the quality of those produced at the West Point Mint, according to Jurkowsky.
The 2011 production will be the first time in more than a decade that American Eagle silver bullion coins will be produced at both the West Point and the San Francisco Mints. American Eagle silver bullion coins were produced at both facilities from 1989 through 2000 inclusive. All American Eagle silver bullion coin production was moved strictly to the West Point Mint in 2001.
The bullion coins do not bear the Mint mark of the facility where the coins were struck.
The San Francisco Mint’s inclusion in American Eagle silver bullion coin production in 2011 is necessary in part because Mint officials anticipate sales in 2011 being from 28 percent to nearly 43 percent higher than the record 2010 sales of 34,662,500 silver bullion coins. Other contributing factors to the decision are production, at the West Point Mint, of Proof versions of both the 2011 U.S. Army and 2011 Medal of Honor gold $5 half eagles, and of up to 2 million National September 11th Memorial and Museum 1-ounce, .999 fine silver medals authorized under Public Law 111-221.
“Demand for silver bullion remains at unprecedented levels,” Jurkowsky said.
“If it continues at the rate we have seen over the last two months, it could reach a level of between 45 million and 50 million coins in calendar year 2011. The Mint at West Point has done a fantastic job in meeting demand over the last several years and as we made plans for calendar 2011 production, we saw that the legislation in effect for 2011 added additional products to the West Point portfolio (the 9/11 Medal and both the Army and Medal of Honor commemorative coins),” Jurkowsky said.
“So our plan was to see how silver demand played out in the first quarter of calendar year 2011, knowing that we had press capacity available at San Francisco if needed.”
Because the San Francisco Mint is completing its production of coins for 2011 sets containing Proof coins, “there is a window of opportunity to have San Francisco produce some silver bullion before 2012 production begins in late summer 2011, so we are conducting silver bullion trial strikes at San Francisco now,” Jurkowsky said. “Production would include using the same dies, the same methods and same packaging [as used at the West Point Mint]. We do not expect a visible difference between the two coins.
Jurkowsky continued: “If still warranted, we plan to begin production of up to a few hundred thousand per week in San Francisco in late May to early June, running through the summer. Our authorized purchasers have expressed interest in [picking up the coins at a San Francisco location], but the overall allocation methodology will be done weekly and include West Point volumes in the weekly allocation calculation.
“There are several logistical issues to resolve before any final decisions are made to pursue this initiative.
“Simply stepping back, we feel that exploring use of another facility is good management and may be another way to better meet the needs of our customers,” he said. ■
By Paul Gilkes-Coin World Staff
March 28, 2011 8:00 a.m.
Article first published in 2011-04-11, News section of Coin World
Because of the continued unprecedented demand for American Eagle silver bullion coins and an increased numismatic production load at the West Point Mint, some American Eagle production is being shifted to the San Francisco Mint.
Tom Jurkowsky, director of the U.S. Mint’s Office of Public Information, confirmed March 23 that trial strikes are currently being produced at the San Francisco Mint, with full-scale, temporary production to begin sometime in May.
The trial strikes are being produced to ensure that the quality of the American Eagle silver bullion coins struck at the San Francisco Mint replicate the quality of those produced at the West Point Mint, according to Jurkowsky.
The 2011 production will be the first time in more than a decade that American Eagle silver bullion coins will be produced at both the West Point and the San Francisco Mints. American Eagle silver bullion coins were produced at both facilities from 1989 through 2000 inclusive. All American Eagle silver bullion coin production was moved strictly to the West Point Mint in 2001.
The bullion coins do not bear the Mint mark of the facility where the coins were struck.
The San Francisco Mint’s inclusion in American Eagle silver bullion coin production in 2011 is necessary in part because Mint officials anticipate sales in 2011 being from 28 percent to nearly 43 percent higher than the record 2010 sales of 34,662,500 silver bullion coins. Other contributing factors to the decision are production, at the West Point Mint, of Proof versions of both the 2011 U.S. Army and 2011 Medal of Honor gold $5 half eagles, and of up to 2 million National September 11th Memorial and Museum 1-ounce, .999 fine silver medals authorized under Public Law 111-221.
“Demand for silver bullion remains at unprecedented levels,” Jurkowsky said.
“If it continues at the rate we have seen over the last two months, it could reach a level of between 45 million and 50 million coins in calendar year 2011. The Mint at West Point has done a fantastic job in meeting demand over the last several years and as we made plans for calendar 2011 production, we saw that the legislation in effect for 2011 added additional products to the West Point portfolio (the 9/11 Medal and both the Army and Medal of Honor commemorative coins),” Jurkowsky said.
“So our plan was to see how silver demand played out in the first quarter of calendar year 2011, knowing that we had press capacity available at San Francisco if needed.”
Because the San Francisco Mint is completing its production of coins for 2011 sets containing Proof coins, “there is a window of opportunity to have San Francisco produce some silver bullion before 2012 production begins in late summer 2011, so we are conducting silver bullion trial strikes at San Francisco now,” Jurkowsky said. “Production would include using the same dies, the same methods and same packaging [as used at the West Point Mint]. We do not expect a visible difference between the two coins.
Jurkowsky continued: “If still warranted, we plan to begin production of up to a few hundred thousand per week in San Francisco in late May to early June, running through the summer. Our authorized purchasers have expressed interest in [picking up the coins at a San Francisco location], but the overall allocation methodology will be done weekly and include West Point volumes in the weekly allocation calculation.
“There are several logistical issues to resolve before any final decisions are made to pursue this initiative.
“Simply stepping back, we feel that exploring use of another facility is good management and may be another way to better meet the needs of our customers,” he said. ■
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
A Look at Europe and the Collapse of the EU by Nigel Farage
Submitted by: Francis Soyer 3/30/11
Hats off to Nigel Farage for exposing the REAL EU agenda and two key players responsible for the shite show with Portugal, Spain etc.
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